Joined July 2018
Stilgar retweeted
Bassent is my new favorite person 🤣
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Hands down one of the best exchanges between reporters and an NFL head coach I’ve ever seen, featuring Titans HC Robert Saleh and the local media. What started as a simple question about the complexities of Saleh’s zone defense and why there might be some early growing pains turned into nearly seven minutes of incredible insight. Saleh explains why the system takes time to learn but can eventually produce top-five defenses. He breaks down how players learn to attack offenses by understanding what they’re trying to do to them, rather than simply dropping to a spot and defending grass. He also dives into the evolution of his defensive philosophy, drawing from his experiences around Pete Carroll’s Cover 3/Legion of Boom system, Vic Fangio, Monte Kiffin and others. He discusses the key positions that make the system work, his overall philosophy on defense and so much more. I’ve heard DeMeco Ryans speak glowingly about Robert Saleh, how brilliant he is and how instrumental he was in DeMeco’s development as a coach. But I don’t think I fully appreciated what he meant until watching this. Just an incredibly bright defensive mind. And what makes this especially fascinating from a Texans perspective is that DeMeco is essentially building and running a variation of that same defensive philosophy, with some of his own wrinkles. It’s particularly relevant right now given Houston’s struggles with defensive communication and executing its coverage rules. Saleh provides some excellent perspective on why these systems can be so difficult to master, how players eventually develop a deeper understanding of what offenses are attacking, and why that understanding allows them to play faster and more aggressively. Must watch.
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Stanley Druckenmiller: “I like to be very patient and then when I see something, go a little bit crazy.” The great opportunities are rare. That’s why they require patience & aggression. The ability to sit still when nothing stands out. The ability to bet big when something does
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Stilgar retweeted
Rates are very interesting here. You can lock US belly (5/7) at 2.7% REAL. Modified duration has shifted the nominal breakeven point to 7s = You buy 7s today and hold for 1 year. You can make 10% / lose NOTHING for a +/- 1% move. For the 10s r/r is 1/7.5. For 20s 1/3.
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Our Woke Inclusive King
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Stilgar retweeted
Bessent: “I am the house” Bond market:
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So. AI investment will slow, which is bearish. But human extinction has been delayed, which is bullish.
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Stilgar retweeted
Don't let Obama buy the election by handing out unlimited free money to states.
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Almost all of the Fed watchers that had not been expecting a September hike before today changed their call after the August CPI printed a bit firmer than expected
These outlooks are fairly inertial. Only three banks changed their formal Fed "call" towards a September rate hike after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech (UBS, Barclays, and SocGen). Tracking the latest house views from various Fed watchers:
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I was losing money trading so I bought the iPhone Duo. Now I’m losing money twice as fast
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This is hilarious 😆 @duolingo
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Stilgar retweeted
they named a phone after me and made it bend over 😭
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Trump is now threatening to stop trade with every country we run a trade deficit with, unless the Fed cuts rates… Absolutely unhinged.
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“If you make a big bet, be open-minded, if the situation changes, you must change.” — Stanley Druckenmiller
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Stilgar retweeted
BREAKING: Zoom adds ex-Oracle CFO Jeffrey Epstein to its board of directors.
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Stilgar retweeted
Could this be the greatest defensive duo of all time?
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Stilgar retweeted
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefterAug 30
🚨 🚨 🚨 He’s back: Rams star Aaron Donald is coming out of retirement and returning to the Rams on a one-year, $20M deal that with incentives could be worth up to $30M, per @rapsheet and me. After two seasons away, Donald now will join forces with Myles Garrett, giving the Rams two of the top defensive linemen in NFL history.
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I think next week’s payrolls print will disappoint, and has decent (though not our baseline) chance of being negative. Supposed it is a negative print. There is no modern Fed era precedent of Fed hiking after two negative payrolls prints. Still 50-50?
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American democracy every four years.
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Stanley Druckenmiller: “A lot of my style is you [first] build a thesis, hopefully that no one else has built. You sort of put some positions on… Then when the thesis starts to evolve and people get on & you see the momentum start to change in your favor, then you really go for it. You pile into the trade.”
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