Guillermo Garcia

Canada's Canola Stocks Surge 32% — A Bearish Signal for Global Oilseed Markets Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has sharply raised its 2026/27 canola ending stocks forecast by 475,000 tonnes to 1.979 million tonnes, versus 1.504 million tonnes estimated in August. Key developments: • 2026/27 ending stocks: 1.979 million tonnes, up 32% from August's estimate.\ • Previous season ending stocks: revised upward by 175,000 tonnes to 1.9 million tonnes.\ • Higher carryover stocks signal increasingly comfortable Canadian supplies. The bearish implications extend across the entire canola complex: 1. Canola seed: Greater availability could intensify export competition and weigh on spot prices and futures. 2. Canola oil: Cheaper seed could reduce crushing costs, weakening oil price support. 3. Canola meal: Higher crushing activity could expand meal supplies and intensify competition in the feed market. The critical question now is whether export demand and domestic crushing can absorb the growing surplus. With Canada among the world's largest canola exporters, rising inventories could become a formidable headwind for the global rapeseed, vegetable oil and oilmeal markets in MY 2026/27. \#Canola #Rapeseed #VegetableOil #Oilseeds #AgTwitter