Ari Sass

Trying to figure out AMZN's economic interest in ANT when combining converts plus preferreds. Looks like 20% (uncapped) interest based on disclosures. Anyone math it differently?

A supply constrained NVDA will grow 70% next year but consensus AI capex growth is ~50%?

One of the largest retailers in the world gets one question on retail

* Apple is seeking other sources of DRAM supply even after securing a 5 year deal with Micron * Lenovo thinks market tight thru 2030 and prices won’t revert anytime soon * Microsoft estimates prices will continue to rise in 2027 * Hynix sees supply constraints thru 2030 Are you so sure we are at a cyclical peak here? Sure, prices will inevitably drop but duration of cycle is the most important question and some of the largest buyers and sellers don’t see light at the end of the tunnel.

Probably an unpopular view but a lot of CEOs are too active in the conference circuit. Would much rather see them focused on their business than investor communication where the marginal value dwindles rapidly after the first fireside.

exuberance: proforma non-GAAP EPS, adjusted FCF, price/sales fear: trough GAAP EPS, FCF minus SBC, price/book minus intangibles

Don't get me wrong I really like $CLH, but if any software company guided the way they did, it would've been met with bloodshed. One of those rare market moments where being an asset-intensive, manufacturing-sensitive industrial is actually the place to hide.

I’m sure tons of junior programmers are feeling anxious right now. But millions of SMBs with no engineers will need dedicated technical help to harness AI. This isn’t just displacement, it’s a new necessity for many.

If AI makes coding cheap and features copyable overnight, isn’t this actually a good setup for fast-following incumbents with high switching costs, regulatory moats, and products deeply embedded in mission-critical workflows?

Did a new AI real estate service company launch today or something? $CBRE $JLL etc

$CHRW a pretty good early case study on an enterprise w/ troves of data using AI to gain market share and generate operational efficiencies/margin expansion.

I don’t know who actually reads our quarterly letters front to back but I’m highly confident that I get the greatest value from writing them. It forces me to revisit prior beliefs, provides structure and coherence to months of random and incomplete thoughts, and enables the team to better understand ideas and concerns that I may have poorly communicated previously in more informal settings.

Or maybe this is why

Price action on earnings misses has never been more brutal. I’m guessing this is due to nervous longs against a backdrop of fragile macro backdrop coupled with FOMO on what’s working (AI, retail faves). Other views?

When $FICO was at ATHs, consensus ‘27 EPS estimate was ~$48. Stock 15% lower and EPS probably going to be closer to $60.

Lots of talk about the market being frothy, but there are still compelling investment ideas trading at reasonable valuations with potential for solid upside to 2026–27 numbers: $ALC - Leading pure play ocular health company. Secular tailwinds from aging demographic and increased incidence of myopia (due to greater time staring at our screens). Stock has been weak and a poor relative performer as organic growth has moderated to a level not seen in years and heightened concerns about modestly dilutive acquisitions and tariffs. Organic growth is set to meaningfully inflect due to the commercialization of several new products including new surgical platform (UNITY), new weekly contact lens and a compelling new Rx for dry eye. The stock could meaningfully re-rate as growth accelerates. $SARO - Recent IPO of a leading aerospace engine MRO. Despite beating and raising on revenues and EBITDA, stock has languished due to poor FCF conversion, overhang of secondaries from Carlyle (PE sponsor) and preference for OEMs over MROs as expectations grow higher for new deliveries. SARO has a lot of visibility into very strong HSD/LDD growth for years driven by growth of LEAP engine MRO needs, share gains for CFM56 and secular growth story in Component Repairs business. Margins should beat expectations due to mix shift and efficiency gains with LEAP work. $HSIC - Largest dental distributor in the U.S by far. Stock is all but left for dead at ~13x EPS as end market growth has been anemic and HSIC has disappointed both on organic growth and margins. Announcement of new CEO (any day now?) should be a positive catalyst as narrative shifts to meaningful growth opportunities from increased private label penetration, cost cutting, and AI-driven opportunities with its leading dental software business. Can hit consensus EPS for next year just by keeping pace with current share repo program. Not hard to envision north of $7 EPS in 2-3 years putting stock at less than 10x. $PRMB - Largest pure play water company in U.S. post merger with BlueTriton. Merger has not gone smoothly out of the gate causing company to reduce guidance. Worst is behind them and proforma EPS power post-cost synergies values this thing as cheap as the worst consumer staple out there which will not sustain once numbers turn which is probably more of a 2026 event. Q4 retail comps a bit hard due to hurricane last year but if you can look past a couple of months there is meaningful re-rating potential with stock at ~8.5x trough EBITDA.

😳🧐