Elections, Policy, Law, and Maps. https://xitter.cf/t.co/jPBRSAICr4
Joined October 2025
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Fully Reporting retweeted
Was able to use the absentee files in NC to compare same day 18-29 turnout by party reg
% of 2022 / % of 2024 by party
D: 197.3% / 55.3%
R: 83.9% / 12.6%
Oth: 205.8% / 43.8%
Fully Reporting retweeted
How is it possible to only count 6 votes when over 50 percent of the estimated votes are outstanding….?
Fully Reporting retweeted
The historical electoral simulators are usable again!
poliwave.com/ca/fed/simulato…
There are simulators for every federal elections from 1867-2025 feel free to try them all
Fully Reporting retweeted
🇨🇦 Canadian Federal Polling Average Update (Jan 26th)
🔴LPC: 40.2% (+1.2%)
🔵CPC: 36.0% (+0.1%)
🟠NDP: 10.1% (-1.1%)
🔷BQ: 7.5% (-0.1%)
🟢GPC: 3.1% (-0.4%)
🟣PPC: 1.8% (+0.3%)
Check out the latest polling average: poliwave.com/ca/fed/polls?vi…
(+/- change from Jan 19th)
Fully Reporting retweeted
In the President's big speech at Davos, he keeps referring to America's need for Iceland. He came here to ask for Greenland.
Fully Reporting retweeted
A potential shock upset may be developing in Trump+22 GA SD-18. Brown is currently outrunning Harris by 18 points and appears poised to come closer than expected to the 50% needed to secure an outright victory without a runoff.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Using these benchmarks, Behn is roughly hitting these numbers but only in *early vote.* That suggests about a ten point loss overall. Can likely stick a fork in this one.
Fully Reporting retweeted
I’ve seen enough: Matt Van Epps (R) defeats Aftyn Behn (D) in the #TN07 special election.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Behn (D) is already 3 points behind her vote goal after the Williamson early vote. Election Day vote is yet to come in Williamson, and it should be even more red. It's going to be an incredibly impressive night for Democrats, but Behn needs miraculous Nashville ED turnout to win.
Fully Reporting retweeted
With very red ED starting to report, Behn is now running BEHIND her vote goal in Hickman and Wayne counties. She is on track for an impressive showing, but she's going to need *huge* ED turnout+margin in Davidson to win.
Fully Reporting retweeted
NEW: With Democrats fighting to win back the Senate in 2026, there's been a strange silence about one of their best pickup opportunities on paper: Nebraska. Most of the reasoning why doesn't make much sense, and the race could be headed for a photo finish. Link below.
Fully Reporting retweeted
No congressional district in Virginia has seen a larger shift over the last 25 years than the 11th district in northern VA. It's hard to believe but George W. Bush won it by five points in 2000. Earlier this month Abigail Spanberger won it by 47%.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Everyone is arguing about whether moderates perform better in elections-and mostly using congressional elections to prove their point. But the debate tends to skip over a key question: can lessons from down ballot races be applied nationally? Link below ⬇️
Fully Reporting retweeted
Middletown Township, Monmouth County
Phil Murphy's hometown
86.9% White
49.9% bach degree or higher
1,639 ppl/mi2
2016: Trump +23.2
2017: Guadagno +21.2
2020: Trump +12.8
2021: Ciattarelli +28.4
2024: Trump +20.0
2025: Ciattarelli +18.0
Fully Reporting retweeted
Spanberger wins Harris +17 Loudon by 28% with >95% of the vote reporting. (It was Biden +25). Jay Jones leads by 19.
Spanberger is on track to win by ~14 points. Unless the later votes ticket split MUCH more dramatically, that bodes well for Jones.
