Managing chaos & leveraging entropy | Public Equities | Fundamental Maths 🇫🇷

Joined June 2016
À votre avis le CAC40 réagit comment demain ?
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Nous avons survécu aux Huns Nous avons survécu aux Vikings Nous avons survécu aux Panzers On survivra aussi à ça
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When I was writing Unreal Engine 1, my time was divided as follows: - Around 30% went to seriously deep coding on hard problems: assembly language texture mappers, C++ BSP trees, data persistence, object oriented systems design, and networking. - Around 70% was just typing and refactoring large bodies of code needed for a complete engine feature set. This was not hard, and while I was doing it my mind was mostly on the deeper coding topics, thinking and planning for what's next. It didn't feel much different from vibe coding today, except that it was just me typing code on an IBM Model M keyboard rather than prompting it and reviewing the results. So, it has always seemed perfectly logical that we would rely on AI for that 70%, once the AI could do it with a similar quality standard as we could, which has never been perfection. It came as no surprise that, after a few years of AI model evolution, it was able to take the reigns on that 70% and free up programmers' time for more valuable tasks. What's more of a surprise is the emergence of AI as a sort of insta-Carmack able to solve hard technical problems quite cleverly and often cleanly, and that it's able to reason about and work in complex 3D scenes both by operating the tools and by directly understanding the raw data files. I abandoned assembly language in 1998 when out-of-order CPUs made much simpler C/C++ code faster, and never I missed it. If prompting through architectural documents, concept art, and design plans can transcend typing code and tweaking vertices, that will enable developers to spend their time on higher-level, higher value technical and creative tasks. What matters is the end product, whether it's a game or an engine. Anything developers can do to try out more ideas and make better software and games faster is a win for everyone.
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Jack Clark's lecture at the IMF 'Inside the Event Horizon: Why Everyone Should Take AI Progress Seriously' starts in ten minutes. He believes that the singularity has begun, and so do I.
I’m speaking at the IMF in an hour about the singularity and why I believe it has begun and the choices we'll need to make. Watch live here: youtube.com/live/Rqt9kWoTJbc…
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Frenchie retweeted
Our U.S. Tour and OCP Global Summit 2026 Takeaways ☕️OCP – System-level inflection
• Decisive shift toward full-stack co-design across hyperscalers
• Nvidia extended networking roadmap new USFP pluggable standard (co-developed with Cisco). Enables 12.8 Tb/s modules
• Showcased PTFE for NVLink Board (inline with our PCB Spec view for 2H27 on Oct 5)
• Microsoft emphasized AI scaling as a system-engineering challenge
• MSFT Unveiled multi-GW Maia 300 deployments from 2027
• Meta maintained pragmatic stance on optics, piloting near-packaged solutions in scale-out domains and Retaining copper for high-density scale-up fabrics ☕️OCP – Optical scale-up and power integration
• Broadcom and OpenAI advanced OCI-MSA multi-rack optical scale-up, highlighted hybrid topologies: high-bandwidth copper for tensor parallelism + optical links for expert parallelism
• GEN2 and GEN3 timelines: 400G in 2027, 800G in early 2030s 
• Google shifted focus to power, positioning datacenters as grid-integrated resources
• 1 GW demand-response capacity with U.S. utilities
• LVDC roadmap: from ±400 VDC Mt Diablo racks to native 800 VDC distribution
• Power engineering now dictates deployment velocity as much as silicon performance
• AMD reinforced CPU-dense trajectory of agentic AI
• Announced Helion CPU racks reaching 32,768 EPYC cores
 🚌 U.S. Tour — Supply Chain and Compute Economics
• No near- to mid-term power-supply risk, Supported by gas-based generation and remote locations 
• Liquid-cooling infrastructure is the bottleneck
• Rack pricing continues to rise (GB300 US$5.5–6.5m; VR200 US$8m), reflecting strong compute demand
• Some believe Inference economics challenging: GPU utilization 20–30%, memory and cooling costs rising
• For agentic AI, model shifts CPU-to-accelerator ratios from 1:4–1:8 to 1:1 → doubling CPU TAM #OCP #AI #MSFT #GOOG #NVDA #VR200
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Frenchie retweeted
L'un des indicateurs les plus important de la bourse vient de flasher très fort Mais c'est quoi le VIX ? N'hésitez pas à enregistrer ce thread ⏬⏬
En général quand on voit ça Pas besoin de regarder son portefeuille
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Attention, un VIX élevé ne veut pas dire que le marché va pas aller creuser sa tombe plus bas En 2020 lors du Covid, acheter le S&P 500 au premier signal du VIX au-dessus de 35 laissait encore 24,9 % de baisse à encaisser En 2008, c’était 41,5 % ! La panique peut créer des opportunités mais en elle peut aussi s’aggraver pendant des semaines. C’est ce qui manque dans les posts qui vous disent d’acheter agressivement dès que le VIX dépasse un seuil C'est qu'il ne faut surtout pas acheter en levier car il faut aussi une taille de position qui permette d’encaisser la suite sans être forcé de vendre
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Bonus : Si vous êtes familier avec la notion de dérivé en mathématiques, Il existe aussi un dérivé du VIX appelé le VVIX En gros le VVIX mesure celle du VIX lui-même Plus le VVIX monte, plus le marché intègre des variations importantes du VIX dans le prix de ses options C’est donc la volatilité de la volatilité. Une mesure de l’amplitude anticipée des mouvements, sans indication de leur direction
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L'un des indicateurs les plus important de la bourse vient de flasher très fort Mais c'est quoi le VIX ? N'hésitez pas à enregistrer ce thread ⏬⏬
En général quand on voit ça Pas besoin de regarder son portefeuille
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Ca vaut le coup d'acheter la peur ? Je vous vois venir... mais historiquement oui Ce n'est pas la même histoire si on est en levier (on le verra plus bas)
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Un VIX à 20 correspond à environ 1,26 % de volatilité implicite par séance sur le S&P 500 Sur 30 jours, cela représente une fourchette théorique de ±5,7 % à un écart-type Les mouvements peuvent évidemment dépasser cette fourchette
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