A fool who believes economy can turn the world into a better place. Loves movies too!
Joined March 2013
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Indeed, by making this a war of eradication, Putin committed the same mistake the N@zis did in WWII in the Soviet lands - they gave their enemies no choice but win or die. Reading Sun Tzu would have taught them not to put their opponents on death grounds…
Trump only thinks that it's Zelenskyy who refuses to surrender, viewing him as the main obstacle standing between himself and a sweet dealmaking with Putin.
But in reality, it's not Zelenskyy, it's the Ukrainian people who refuse to surrender. If our president decided, for some reason, to go against the people's will and capitulate by accepting Putin's conditions, he wouldn't last 20 seconds in office.
And the notion that the Ukrainian people are "dying for Zelenskyy" is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. I've never met a single soldier who thinks that way.
They are fighting because foreign invaders would otherwise occupy their homes, kidnap their children, steal their property, and kill them. That's why, Zelenskyy or no Zelenskyy, they would still defend their country.
Unintended consequences is a bit too nice for this. We don’t know much about predicting macroeconomic events BUT we do know those are the consequences of rent controls!
These NYC apartments are standing empty, not because the owners don't want to rent them, but because rent stabilization laws prohibit them from charging enough to earn back the costs of necessary repairs.
My latest for @WSJFreeEx
Frederic Mari retweeted
In the article the most-cited reason for staying at labs despite worry of Doom is #2 - Steer It In A Safer Direction From The Inside.
Coxon also cites #1 for himself. Kokotajlo says he heard reasons #3 & #5, Hilton saw #1 as common. Several spoke of the lure of #4. No one mentioned #6 or (thank goodness) #7.
(DK: “we’re going to use our power and our credibility to do good things,”
JC: "You’re helping it potentially be safe"
AT: My plan was to leverage the influence of Google’s chief scientist at the time
MB: My hope was that by being more independent but also knowing what’s happening on the inside, I would have more credibility when talking about the trajectory.
JW: I wanted to work on slowing down progress and doing things that created greater oversight and coordination of labs
PM: there’s an argument to be made that you’re having much greater impact inside than you would outside
+
JC: "it didn’t feel important for me to engage with the philosophical questions around it or the details of strategy. That was all other people’s jobs." & "I felt like just a cog in a system." & "Almost all the employees are genuinely well intentioned, scared."
DK: I’ve heard a lot of people say “It’s going to be fine. Don’t worry. Superintelligence is far away." "Who knows how it’s going to end? But usually humanity survives, and historically technology has been mostly good"
JH: There were a lot of people joining who were just ordinary people [...] and were mostly there to do their job.)
On September 8, Jacob Coxon, a 27-year-old Anthropic employee, posted a resignation statement on X that ricocheted around the internet. He quit in protest of what he saw as the company’s suicidally reckless pursuit of artificial general intelligence. To the AI community, an Anthropic employee believing that the technology their company is developing might end the world is not exactly news. (Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI employees who believed OpenAI, if left unchecked, would do just that.) But an Anthropic employee publicly quitting in protest is.
Afterward, a debate broke out: If you’re a lab employee who believes in these risks, what should you do? Is it best to leave in protest? Or is it better to agitate from the inside, close to the seat of power? And how would the choice affect your friendships and community?
“For me, there’s quite a distinction between my rational beliefs and the things I feel in my gut,” says Coxon. “If you’d asked me to narrate my opinions when entering Anthropic and when leaving Anthropic, they would probably sound pretty similar. But in terms of the actual feeling between the start and the end, it just felt very, very different.”
Coxon joins a small set of employees of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind who, over the years, chose to walk away.
For our Cover Story, in collaboration with Asterisk Magazine, we brought together eight of them. They don’t share the same concerns or the same p(dooms) — in fact, they wouldn’t necessarily agree that p(doom) is a coherent concept. But together, they provide a candid view of the AI race and the individual calculus many employees face.
Read their interviews in full: nymag.visitlink.me/HbG6LU
The Ukrainian battlefield is getting more one-minute-in-the-future sci fi by the day..
🤖 Ukraine has shot down a jet-powered Geran-5 drone using a robotic turret for the first time
The claim was made by Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat.
The turrets use machine vision and AI-assisted targeting to calculate a drone’s trajectory and aim the weapon. Ihnat said he had initially been skeptical that a machine-gun system could effectively engage such fast targets. For now, the main limitation is its relatively short range.
The day before, Zelensky said more than 12 such turrets have already been deployed in Kyiv, including to protect bridges, with another eight planned for the Kyiv region. The systems are automated mounts equipped with heavy machine guns.
Frederic Mari retweeted
From the former Policy Frontiers Team Lead at OpenAI: She worked on testing AIs for dangerous capabilities, and warns we don’t really know how to do that. "The evaluations can't be comprehensive enough… the models can get smart enough to hide their capabilities."
Rosie Campbell highlights competitive and cultural pressures she experienced inside a frontier AI company, and discusses her hopes and misgivings about pacing the frontier.
"I assumed there would be a whole load of good arguments for why this isn't really something we need to worry about. There'd be answers to all of these concerns. And the more I read into it, the more I was kind of terrified at the lack of rebuttals to some of these arguments."
"Over time, I feel like the organization changed a lot. The incentives changed. There was a lot more pressure to move fast to build commercial products. And a lot of the people who had been very motivated by these big picture safety concerns started leaving."
"We're at a point where we don't understand what's going on with the systems. The rate of progress is kind of insane, and we need to make sure that our ability - to understand, control, deploy these systems safely - that keeps up with the capabilities of the systems themselves."
Frederic Mari retweeted
Oh, you're worried about a Jewish guy's apocalyptic cult? You're scandalized that they consort with prostitutes? You think their message of compassion for everyone threatens normal bonds of family, community, and nation? Should we throw you a party? Should we invite Pontius Pilate?
Frederic Mari retweeted
hello, i am Azmyth, @Aella_Girl’s sister. it seems there’s some discourse and some misconceptions going around online about how she GROOMED ME? As the actual person you may be making this claim about, here is what actually happened:
When I was 18, Aella was camming. It seemed like fun and a good way to make money, but I didn’t want to do anything sexual, so we decided to Prank the Internet.
Aella was living far away and we weren’t very close at the time, so her entire contribution was “yeah, I’ll help you get an audience,” (thanks, sis!) knowing that what I planned to do was nonsexual. That was it. That is how Aella contributed to my debut.
And what I did was get on cam and bounce around, do the cinnamon challenge and front flips, all in a banana suit. I never did anything sexual, nor did I want or plan to. I would encourage anyone accusing Aella of pushing me into it to try as hard as they can to find any evidence of me doing any of this "sex work". I promise you, you will only find bananas.
Aella has been my biggest, most unconditional supporter in my life. She has shown me so much kindness and has been my primary caretaker through years of being deeply sick with my disease/chronic illness—and the idea that she coerced or exploited me is the complete opposite of my experience. She has never pushed any of my boundaries or tried to get me to do anything I was uncomfortable with. I'm sad that strangers on the internet don't know this and believe complete lies they’ve heard from other strangers. It's really weird to have people you don't know making up stories about your own life, so this is me temporarily emerging from my anti-posting slumber, annoyed and squinting, to kindly ask you to stop inventing cruel lies about my life.
I noticed that as well with vegetarians etc. I’m not one and it costs me nothing to recognize they’re morally superior to me. But lots of people seem unable to understand themselves as less moral than others…
That's what 'based' was invented for...
You can say what you want about Iran but they're definitely pretty unique in their communication: never seen a country threaten another with a math equation before 😅
For those who didn't get it: there is a famous monetary policy formula used by the Fed called the "Taylor rule" that says a central bank's policy rate (i) should equal the neutral real rate (r*) plus target inflation (π*), plus 1.5 times the inflation gap and 0.5 times the output gap (the "i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*)" part of Ghalibaf's formula).
Ghalibaf adds α(SOH−SOH*) and β(BEM−BEM*): SOH referring to the Strait Of Hormuz and BEM to Bab El-Mandeb. Both have positive coefficient, meaning the more those chokepoints are choked, the higher the rate the Fed would have to set to fight the resulting inflation.
In a nutshell this is Ghalibaf trolling the Fed, telling them that Iran is - in a very real way - setting American monetary policy.
You might even say they're being rational... if only there was a movement for such people... we could call them the rationalists, maybe? that'd be so cool... /snark
Frederic Mari retweeted
Deathblow to the famous “If you’re such a doomer, why aren’t you engaging in degenerate orgies at every opportunity?” objection to AI risk.
AI doomsayer's wild life with OnlyFans star includes birthday sex parties, extreme kinks and 'Slutcon' trib.al/jrmDvIA
Frederic Mari retweeted
A lot of loose talk lately about the dangers of building a race of alien super-intelligences comes from people affiliated with the obscure ideology of Effective Altruism.
Be on the lookout for these characters who pose a threat to critical goals like maximizing NVIDIA earnings.
Frederic Mari retweeted
It is amazing how consistent the public preference for traditional building design is, and how uncomfortable this reality is with architects
Does the public prefer traditional architecture? Half a century of surveys find:
worksinprogress.co/issue/do-…
- Between 60 and 95 percent prefer traditional architecture;
- This pattern holds across gender, class, race, nationality and political views;
- More traditional densification schemes seem to attract remarkably high levels of survey support;
- Laypeople and design professionals respond dramatically differently, with professionals far more favourable to modern styles.
Research is still at an early stage, and many questions remain. Personally, I am particularly interested in how the public would respond to a non-traditional but richer and more decorative style? I think they might like it, but we don’t have hard evidence yet.
But the results are already puzzling. Why do people end up buying buildings that are so different to the buildings they say they prefer? How did we end up in this odd situation? What can we do about it?
Read more in @RobertKwolek's definitive review of architectural visual preference surveying.
That explains a lot…
Her Grandfather Served in the SS and Served as a Judge in Occupied Warsaw: The Family Secrets of the AfD Leader
In light of the AfD co-chair’s recent statements about support for Ukraine, it is worth recalling a notable detail from her biography that she prefers not to discuss.
Her grandfather was an SS member and a judge in occupied Poland.
Hans Weidel joined the NSDAP as early as 1932, and in 1933 became a member of the SS. He later became one of the local officials in the Nazi system in Leobschütz — present-day Głubczyce in Poland.
From 1941, Weidel served as a military judge at the Warsaw commandant’s office, and in 1944 he was promoted to the rank of senior staff judge. The document appointing him went through Hitler’s headquarters.
He was part of the Wehrmacht military court system, which handed down tens of thousands of death sentences. It is not known exactly how many rulings Hans Weidel personally issued.
After the war, several cases were opened against him, but all of them were eventually dropped.
Weidel said that she had virtually no contact with her grandfather and that his past was not discussed in the family.
The future is getting distributed, just like the parking tickets...
Robot police officers have begun patrolling the streets in China
A robotic police station has officially been launched in the Bantian area. Its arsenal includes humanoid robots, wheeled robots, robot dogs, drones and autonomous patrol vehicles.
They can patrol streets autonomously, detect suspicious behavior, help search for missing people, receive emergency alerts and respond to emergencies.