As we enter mid-August, the 2026 African "wave train" may be leaving the station. A tropical wave currently over western Africa will emerge over the eastern Atlantic on Tuesday and has some chance to develop into a tropical storm. Multiple physics-based and AI-based models depict the wave rolling off with enough amplitude and moisture to potentially self-organize in its first few days over water. Most ensemble guidance gives this about ~20% chance of occurring right now. Long-term prospects for the system would likely dim, with stronger than average trade winds combining with a stronger than average TUTT to produce a hostile zone of high vertical shear near and east of the Caribbean. This would likely shred apart any storm approaching the Lesser Antilles if one does form, but it remains a bit early to be certain. We'll keep an eye on this wave next week just in case.