@Flare4DFS

Trying to figure out this DFS thing.

Joined August 2021
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  • Following105
  • Followers4.6K
70Media
Earlier today, one of the worst remaining entries sold on the Splash secondary market for $18k. It's not worth that. Not close.
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I'm wondering if all those Brissett people at 25% ownership are starting to second guess not playing Drake Maye at 4%.
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This is either going to be the best or worst DFS slate of all time. #FadeTheChalk
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Checked out actual Splash Survivor sales, sorted by highest price. I see a trend...
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cc: @GregSankey
Matt Gajewski
@Matt_GajewskiSep 17
These injury reports are pointless. No consequences for deceit
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I do find it funny that if you win a best ball tournament one time, you're suddenly an expert. The amount of variance in best ball is DFS on an exponential level. Maybe the better approach is for the experts to be honest and tell you how lucky they got.
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What does a 30-golfer contest with loose pricing look like from a combo/dupe standpoint? Here's a summary of possible lineups & a look back at last year's large field contest: 455,695 possible lineup combos vs. 442,416 last year 3,875 combos use all $50k of salary vs. 4,198 last year In last year's large field GPP (won by @NelsonAdcock), the winning lineup used $49,100 of salary. There were 5 potential lineups that would have scored higher than the winner. The optimal lineup used $49,300 of salary. Below is a breakdown of potential lineups vs. those that were played in the $49-$50k zone last year. The higher you go in the salary range, two things happen: fewer options and more likely to be duped. Of the 50,051 combos between $49-$50k, 15,122 were played in the large field contest. 438 of the top 1,000 lineups sat in this range and 115 of them were entered. The other 562 sat below $49,000 where the field entered only 8.
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Interesting to see what's happened with the NFL Week 1 Mega Millionaire contest ($4,444 buy-in) on DK over the last five years: 2026 - $3.0M (750 potential entries) 2025 - $3.5M (875 potential entries - 816 entered) 2024 - $4.0M (1,000 potential entries - 934 entered) 2023 - $3.1M (768 potential entries - filled) 2022 - $2.5M (634 potential entries - filled)
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The Buckley/Brady line movement is fascinating. In the large $25 buy-in contest, 67 people max entered. Of those, 12 fully faded the fight, 4 went all-in on Buckley and nobody went all-in on Brady. Here's the full field ownership comparison with 150-maxers vs. non-maxers.
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Here are the biggest differences in ownership for 150-maxers vs. non-maxers in this week's large $25 buy-in PGA contest. 150-maxers like Keegan, Hovland, and Rose; under on Smalley, Adam Scott, and Yellamaraju. 150-maxers represent 33% of all entries.
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People seemed to like the comparison of the 150-maxers to the non-150-maxers, so here's what it looks like in today's $25 Showdown contest. Combined R1 score for the Top 10 under-owned by the 150-maxers: -53 vs. +8 for the Top 10 over-owned.
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I took a look at the large $25 PGA contest for the week and compared average ownership of the 150-maxers to those who didn't enter 150. Interesting to see how big some of the differences are. Below are the six highest on both sides. For context, there were 86 150-maxers (27% of all entries).
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Scheffler ownership is also interesting. 150-maxers had average exposure of 24.3% vs. the non-150-maxers of 29.4%. Below is a histogram that shows how Scheffler's ownership was spread across the 150-maxers with the majority being below 30% and a few being much more concentrated.
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By comparison, here is the distribution of ownership for Yellamaraju for the 150-maxers who had average exposure of 5.3% vs. the non-150-maxers at 16.1%.
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We have a situation. Morikawa people on the cusp of a full Twitter meltdown.
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Can we all just agree on one thing: At $8,600 and 22% owned, Jake Knapp was a bad play to start with.
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