FinTwit meets SparkNotes | Threads: Macroeconomics, investing fundamentals, interviews. No financial advice. Support: https://xitter.cf/t.co/3Lbfys9j7u
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Joined September 2021
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1/ The Notetaker's Collection
We are doing a deep dive into the world of finance, business and macroeconomics and making our notes available to the public.
Notes on interviews, current events, stock analysis, fundamental concepts and more.
All threads are linked below!
Been a while since we’ve posted a thread on Twitter…
Exploring a couple topics - let us know what you find most interesting!
Comment if there’s another topic you’d like a thread on.
61%Europe Energy Crisis
20%Weimar Republic Inflation
19%Why US Geography is OP
135 votes • Final results 3
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Intro to the Housing Market
Homes have been getting expensive - home prices relative to income are at highs exceeding those of the Great Financial Crisis.
But why are prices continuously rising and what might drive them down?
Here's a primer on the housing market!
🧵👇
Many of the insights gathered in this thread were inspired by @PensionCraft's video:
Is the Housing Market Going to Crash?
Link: youtube.com/watch?v=bJjMz-iD…
Other sources used will be listed at the end of the thread.
Let's get into it!
Big move in $TLT today as investors are selling off long-duration bonds.
Do equity markets follow as investors realize that 8.5% inflation is not a good reason for the Fed to pivot?
What are your thoughts on where credit and equity markets move from here?
2
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Intro to the Housing Market will be posted this week!
Why have home prices stayed resilient?
What drives home prices to the upside and downside?
Stay tuned!
Macro Overview from a former senior trader at the Federal Reserve.
We studied Joseph Wang (@josephwang) to learn what may be next for financial markets and monetary policy.
An inside look into the Fed and what the market may be misunderstanding 🧵👇
(2/41) This thread summarizes a recent interview with @josephwang and @MoneyMorningAU.
It also features insights from Wang's recent blog posts.
This thread covers:
- Fed Pivot
- QE and Yield Curve Control
- What's next for equities, housing, fixed income and more.
Let's dive in!
Gap up today on $DXY
A cool new thread is coming tomorrow.
Features great insights from one of our favorite minds on FinTwit.
Stay safe and happy… enjoy the weekend everyone!
1
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If you missed the thread on the dollar $DXY, here it is:
xitter.cf/fintwitnotes/status/15…
Intro to the US Dollar
The US Dollar is the strongest it's been in 20 years, and the effects of its rise are felt by the whole world.
But why does the dollar continue to appreciate and how does it impact the US and the globe?
Here's the good, the bad and the ugly of the USD 🧵
1
Intro to the US Dollar
The US Dollar is the strongest it's been in 20 years, and the effects of its rise are felt by the whole world.
But why does the dollar continue to appreciate and how does it impact the US and the globe?
Here's the good, the bad and the ugly of the USD 🧵
"A nation's exchange rate is the single most important price in its economy." Paul Volcker
Why has the US Dollar strengthened to 20 year highs? How does it impact the US and Global economies?
Our next thread will be on this topic. Let us know what questions you have!
Many proclaim that the bottom in equities is in as "the worst" has been discounted.
I don't see the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop to be supportive of a new bull run.
Curious to hear opposing thoughts - what are the arguments for a sustained rally in equities?
Powell begins the presser by discussing slowing economic conditions.
Last month, the economy was touted as very strong and resilient.
Lyn Alden on the Global Energy Crisis, the US Dollar Wrecking Ball and the Fed Pivot.
@LynAldenContact summarizes major macro themes and how the Fed may respond and impact the economy and financial markets.
Here are notes on her macro masterclass 🧵👇
This thread summarizes a recent interview with @LynAldenContact and @MikeIppolito_.
Link: youtube.com/watch?v=_w6eXAx1…
Contents
• 3/ Global Energy Crisis
• 17/ The Rise of the US Dollar
• 21/ How much can the Fed tighten?
• 28/ Long Term Debt Cycle
• 33/ Outlook for the decade
~30% of S&P 500 companies' revenue comes from foreign markets.
As the dollar strengthens, these global revenues translate to fewer dollars.
Hence, you'll see many "Forex hits" during this earnings season.
$DXY US Dollar Index👇
IBM already warned of a large Forex hit.
We'll likely see this as a big theme in the coming weeks.
reuters.com/technology/ibm-b…
This interview is fantastic.
Basing our next thread on this as it covers:
- Global Energy Crisis
- What can break before Fed pivots?
- What dollar strength means for the US and the world
We took a break from Twitter last week but excited to be back!
Our interview with @LynAldenContact just crossed 100k views!
Thanks for your support!
🔊: spoti.fi/3RoFo3k
📺: bit.ly/3z2Qioi
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We had a great chat on the @7investing podcast with founder Simon Erickson (@7Innovator).
We discuss all things macro.
It was an enlightening chat and we hope you enjoy it!
youtu.be/rs25YB1baV8
Michael Burry: 50% More Downside to Come 📉
Analysts are forecasting strong corporate earnings growth this year despite compromised supply chains and tighter policy.
But what might happen to equities if earnings miss?
Let's break down Burry's bearish call in simple English:
According to Michael Burry, we’re about halfway through this bear market.
This is based on the assumption that earnings forecasts are currently too optimistic.
We’ll assess his argument and share supporting data in our next thread - releasing Monday morning.
What's going on with the Bank of Japan?
While Central Banks globally raise rates and tighten policy, the BoJ fights to keep yields low.
We cover Japan's fascinating economic history to help you understand the BoJ's policy and how it impacts global markets.
Ready for a story?🧵
