
Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)
Sydney, Australia
Joined April 2011
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RBC Capital on Regis Resources $RRL: "1Q FY27 gold production of 83koz was pre-announced while group AISC of $3,617/oz came in 6% above consensus (+3% vs RBCe) mainly reflecting lower gold production.
"RRL has maintained all FY27 guidance with production 2H weighted as multiple new open pits ramp up. RRL's McPhillamys Gold Project made positive progress last week after the Federal Court ruled that the Section 10 Declaration affecting part of the approved site is legally invalid.
"RRL is targeting a potential FID for McPhillamys in 1H CY28. We make minor (-1%) estimate changes and maintain our $8.0/sh PT and Outperform rating on RRL."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
RBC Capital on Hub24 $HUB: "HUB delivered reassuring and clean 1Q27 flows.
"We think HUB can continue to deliver double-digit net inflows supported by strong new adviser growth and structural growth in super and wealth.
"With its all weather capabilities, HUB is our preferred platform play. HUB is trading on ~36.5x FY27E P/E and offers ~15% 3YR EPS CAGR, supporting our Outperform rating. We trim our EPS forecasts ~2% in FY27-29E."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
RBC Capital on Viva Energy $VEA: "Viva has completed its major capex (refinery turnaround and ULSF project), which implies its refinery operational availability will be good over 3Q, in our view.
"However, Viva is still exposed to the same issues - high crude premiums and high freight costs, which adversely impacted Ampol's realised 3Q Lytton refinery margin.
"As a result, a review of our Viva refiner margin forecasts has led to a trimming to our 3Q and 4Q 2026 Geelong refinery margin forecasts. We maintain our Outperform rating."
#Stockinfocus #ASX #investing
RBC Capital on Regis Resources $RRL: "RRL has released its Sept-26 quarter (1Q FY27) update. Gold production of 83koz was pre-announced while group AISC of A$3,617/oz came in 6% above consensus (+3% vs RBCe) mainly reflecting lower gold production.
"FY27 production guidance is maintained with production 2H weighted as multiple new open pits ramp up and the Havana Underground at Tropicana targeting first ore in H1 CY2027.
"Last week the Federal Court ruled that the Section 10 Declaration affecting part of the approved McPhillamys Gold Project site is legally invalid. RRL is targeting an FID for McPhillamys in 1H CY28."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Citi on $BHP Group: "BHP reported September quarter copper production of 401kt (-19% QoQ), -2% vs. CitiE and -5% vs. consensus, on lower grades, maintenance, weather, safety stoppages and the Carrapateena conveyor failure.
"The miss vs. consensus was partially expected after Rio Tinto reported weak Escondida output last week.
"The main negatives were Pampa Norte and Copper SA, each -12% vs. consensus. The main positive was the realised copper price of US$7.01/lb, +9% vs. CitiE and +12% vs. consensus; we calculate copper revenue at +6% vs. consensus. Iron ore was in line: WAIO produced 64.3Mt (-3% QoQ; +4% YoY; -1% vs. CitiE), with 1Q records despite the Car Dumper 4 rebuild; however, the realised price fell to US$76.27/wmt (-9% QoQ) and lump to 28% of sales.
"Additionally, BMA was +7% vs. CitiE and NSWEC +22%. All FY27 production and unit cost guidance was maintained. We expect a neutral market reaction to these results."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Treasure Chest: Gold's Temporary Limbo fnarena.com/2026/10/19/treas…
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Weekly #U308 #uranium update @FNArena
"U308 prices remain resilient, but negative factor momentum, operational setbacks, funding constraints and persistent short selling are weighing heavily on investor sentiment for equities."
Uranium Week: Stocks Tickle 52-Week Lows fnarena.com/2026/10/20/urani…
Has anyone thought about selling T-shirts emblazoned with I survived the 2026 Below the Surface Grizzly Bear Market?
I think there's a market for it ;)
RBC Capital on $BHP Group: "BHP has released its 1Q FY27 update with Copper production coming in 6% below expectations while Western Australian Iron Ore (WAIO), Met Coal and Energy Coal were all in line.
"FY27 guidance for production and unit costs remains unchanged as expected. The miss in Copper was due to lower planned grades at Escondida and Pampa Norte and operational disruptions across all assets including planned maintenance and severe weather in Chile.
"However, BHP's realised copper price in the Sept-26 quarter of $7.0/lb was 8% higher than RBCe while realised iron ore prices were also decent at ~102% of the Platts 61% Index.
"Overall, a strong quarter for BHP's bulk commodities while consensus appears to have under-estimated the pace of the copper grade decline at Escondida and Pampa Norte in Chile."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
RBC Capital on Hub24 $HUB: "Platform net inflows were A$4.0bn in 1Q27 or Sep-26 QTR.
"This was ahead of RBCe (A$3.8bn) and in line with VA Cons. We think the market will take this update as re-assuring given the recent broader industry headwinds on flows.
"Platform/custodial net inflows were ~11.5% of opening FUA annualised at HUB in 1Q27. NWL was ~7.5%. One difference was that HUB's outflows rate was steady on p-c-p, while NWL outflows increased by over 1%pt on p-c-p or a headwind to growth.
"Compositionally, HUB's superannuation gross inflows were up y/y while discretionary investment gross inflows (IDPS) were down y/y. We think PayDay super reforms were a minor tailwind in this quarter.
"Closing Platform FUA at 30-Sep was A$143.7bn. This was c.1% short of RBCe/VA Cons driven by lower market movements and may lead to negative consensus earnings revisions.
"Second strongest quarter for adding active advisers since Dec-23 with 211 or double the pace of Jun-26 quarter. Active advisers at HUB are up 12% y/y vs financial intermediaries at NWL up 4% y/y. We believe this bodes well for HUB's ongoing flows and highlights that HUB has an all weather platform.
"With HUB trading on 34.5x FY27E P/E while offering mid teens EPS CAGR, we re-iterate our Outperform rating and HUB being a preferred platform play."
#stockinfocus #XJO #ASX #investing
Moelis on Bellevue Gold $BGL: "The September quarter shows a weaker start to FY27 than our estimates - albeit the company has retained its guidance for the year suggesting either contingency was already included or there is incremental scope over the remaining three quarters to make up any shortfall.
"Although BGL flagged production to be "3,000-4,000 oz less than expected" (September 21), production was slightly lower again than our numbers, primarily driven by lower throughput of ~250kt (we had modelled 290kt).
"This was partially offset by higher grades of 4.6g/t Au (we had modeled 4.2g/t).
"Sustaining capital of A$25.9m also exceeded our expectations (A$20m), as Deacon North entered into commercial production and a greater proportion being allocated to sustaining capital, alongside the recognition of lease costs as only sustaining capital (A$5m) and non-sustaining capital (A$1m) from the start of FY27 (A$5m)."
#stockinfocus #gold #ASX #investing
From The Australian Broker Call Report @FNArena :
"NextDC shares have gone into a trading halt today on the ASX. The news relates to power supply delay to M3.
"Citi analysts suggest this likely relates to electricity distributor Jemena pausing works on electricity lines that were meant to deliver power to M3.
"The delay might impact the billing ramp in M3. M3 represents circa 70 MWs of the 155 MWs of incremental billing in Victoria the broker has modelled for FY27 (mainly in second half).
"The key questions as lined up by Citi are how much time it will take the distributor to find an alternative way to get power to M3; whether NextDC will need to put in additional capex to fund this; and whether this could make the data centre operator liable for any liquidated damages to the customer.
"Unchanged Buy rating and $21.15 target."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Barrenjoey on Sinclair Gold $SGC: "We expand our gold developer coverage, initiating on Sinclair Gold (SGC).
"SGC is focussed on exploration and development of its 100% owned Mt Henry Gold Project located near Norseman, Western Australia.
"Since project acquisition in February 2026, SGC has doubled resource ounces from 0.9Moz to 1.8Moz, and
we anticipate further resource growth over the next 18 to 24 months.
"Upscalin of the resource base could enable development of a relatively large (5Mtpa), purpose-built processing plant capable of producing more than 150koz of gold per year."
#stockinfocus #ASX #gold #investing
RBC Capital on Ampol $ALD: "Ampol's 3Q 2026 Trading Update has highlighted Group RCOP EBIT growth versus the 2H 2025 quarterly average (2H25: $543m), supported by elevated regional refining margins and favourable supply optimisation.
"However, the 3Q Lytton refiner margin (LRM) of US$23.92/bbl was a miss against both RBCe (US$34.00/bbl) and VA Consensus (US$26.68/bbl) during a period of a major refinery turnaround (T&I) work, even though the margin more than doubled pcp.
"Total fuel sales volumes of 6,245 ML also missed RBCe by 9% and Consensus by 6%, with Australian sales volumes of 3,551 ML up 5% qoq the primary driver. Australian wholesale sales volumes of 2,295 ML missed RBCe by 18% and Consensus by 16%, primarily reflecting the post-acquisition realignment of EG Australia volumes into Convenience Retail.
"International fuel sales volumes of 1,841 ML were 6% above RBCe and 2% above VA Consensus, up 23% pcp (3Q 2025: 1,492 ML), reflecting continued contributions from international shipping and trading.
"Convenience Retail delivered double-digit core network shop sales growth with improving margins and average basket value."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Citi on Bendalaide Bank $BEN: "BEN reported 1Q27 cash earnings of $112.7m, ~10% ahead of CitiE but ~8% below the quarterly run-rate implied by VA 1H27 estimates.
"Relative to expectations, the difference largely arose from operating costs and bad lower bad debts, albeit we note that these can be volatile QoQ and management have not communicated any change to FY27 cost guidance.
"Revenue was 1-2% below expectations due to slight adverse mix but also lower Homesafe and FX income which were cycling a strong print in 4Q26.
"The NIM declined by 6bps over the quarter to 1.94%, however this largely reflected a build in liquid assets and wholesale funding as management pre-funded the RACQ acquisition (which is set to close in 2Q27).
"Overall, we think that noise around the NIM, costs and credit costs gets looked through."
#stockinfocus #banks #ASX #investing
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Evidence continues to emerge that the sharp sell off in AI-related stocks is more to do with hedge fund deleveraging than a so called AI-bubble bursting.
The AI Pendulum May Have Overshot: Goldman Sees Capitulation Giving Way to a New Leadership Trade thedarksideoftheboom.substac…
"ETFs are hitting all-time highs with 96 per cent of financial advisers now using ETFs and a record amount of flows this year, bringing total ETF assets to $388.1 billion at the end of September.
"According to VanEck’s latest survey, financial professionals are increasingly deploying ETFs in portfolios.
"The Australian investment landscape is undertaking a significant structural shift, and ETFs are at the forefront of this change."
#ASX #equities #ETFs #investing
😇👇👇👇✌️👆👇👇👇
Video FNArena Editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck on Livewire Markets' Buy-Hold-Sell - buff.ly/oU5nY8c #ASX #investing #stocksinfocus



