Shalin Shah

CNX IT Last week was a brief challenge for the Indian IT stocks based on the potential impact of AI on the future of majority IT companies! The sell-off, which began on 04 February, intensified after artificial intelligence firm Anthropic unveiled a new AI tool capable of automating complex tasks, raising fears of structural disruption across the outsourcing industry. The market is worried about how new technology provides opportunities by unlocking incremental addressable spend. Indian IT companies, which derive a substantial portion of their revenue from the U.S., remain particularly sensitive to changes in the American economic outlook. Let's observe what is seen with the CNX IT chart and whether we can be take timely informed decisions. ➡️CNX IT hit a high of 39446.70 in January 2022 ➡️We witnessed a triple bottom at 26184.45 from July 2022 to April 2023 ➡️CNX IT crossed 39446.70 after a year in July 2024 ➡️This gave a decisive upside to 46088.90 in December 2024 ➡️Next came the sell-off which led to a double bottom scenario at 31320.15 ➡️The pullback to 39446.70 happened thrice in June 2025, December 2025 & February 2025 ➡️Last week's sell-off has given a retest of 31320.15 which is also a visible neckline for the Head & Shoulder pattern observed ➡️A breakdown below this critical neckline will give way for 26184.45 & 23926 in the short to medium term ➡️Full target potential is much below which won't be feasible to talk as of now. We need to observe the situation and let things unfold step by step ➡️Any reversals should be taken as opportunities to exit positions, and potential longs at the IT Index level can be taken into consideration only above 38560-39450 zone! Can AI disrupt or give an opportunity for Indian IT stocks?

ICICI Bank giving a bazooka 🚀 upmove today! Hits all time high and crosses July 2025 high

Praveg Ltd Market Cap: 545 cr Market Cap 3 years back: 974 cr 2022- Start of upmove from 133.70 2024- Hits all time high of 1292.95 2026- Hits low of 174.65 Sales FY22- 45 cr FY23- 84 cr FY24- 92 cr FY25- 167 cr FY26- 241 cr Profit After Tax FY22- 12 cr FY23- 28 cr FY24- 13 cr FY25- 16 cr FY26- (-10) cr Seems Kumbh Mela was the tipping point for the company. Interestingly, few FIIs & DIIs hold this stock from FY23 onwards! Q2 & H1 FY27- Concall Current hospitality footprint: ~927+ rooms across 17 resorts and one five-star hotel across multiple states/UTs and Lakshadweep. H1 FY27: 55,925 room nights vs 44,959 in H1 FY26; management expects to exceed prior-year H1. Cost advantage: conventional hotel construction “1.25 to 1.5 Cr per room” vs their semi-permanent structures “60 to 75 lakhs per room.” Announced features of the (newly launched) Lakshadweep property: 100 unique accommodations (85 cocoon-shaped + 15 shell-shaped rooms) plus F&B, spa/yoga, scuba/water sports, outdoor MICE, and a conference hall up to 400 guests. Multiple growth vectors—Lakshadweep ramp, Meghalaya capex project, Alibag, Serengeti—but near-term P&L sensitivity hinges on ramp speed + flight connectivity constraints (explicitly cited for Lakshadweep). Near-term profitability is being hit by regulatory cost/tax changes + fixed-cost structure + depreciation from recent openings. Management provided explicit occupancy-to-profit mapping (property-level thumb rules): 30–40% occupancy: break-even 40–55% occupancy: 20–25% EBITDA margin 65–75% occupancy: “40% plus EBITDA margin”

Sai Silks (Kalamandir) Ltd Market Cap: 1057 cr Stock has corrected from 312 to 64 since listing! * TTM sales at 1650 cr * OPM at 15% * PAT at 137 cr * Cash 348 cr * Debt Free * Business to be assessed on Yearly basis and not on Quarter on Quarter basis * Innerwear and Jewellery segment growth to be seen Key concern might be: * Inventory of 816 cr * Cash conversion cycle of 250 days * Rent to Revenue ratio * No of Employees 6311 * DIIs have reduced their stake from 20% to 4% in two years

Market is celebrating Halloween instead of Diwali this year 👻🎃🧟

Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd Market Cap: 43,225 cr Jan 2024: 1434.60 Sept 2024: 3890 Oct 2026: 1576 All the gains of two and a half years has gone away! What has changed for Colgate in these years?

Indian Hotels Co Ltd Market Cap: 1,11,497 cr FY27 consolidated revenue-growth guidance upgraded from 12–14% to 15–17%, supported by stronger hotel demand, improved pricing and robust H1 execution. Q2 FY27 indicator Performance Consolidated revenue ₹2,566 crore Revenue growth +21% YoY Consolidated EBITDA ₹788 crore EBITDA margin 30.7% PAT ₹349 crore PAT growth +23% YoY Domestic same-store RevPAR growth +25% H1 hotel signings 47 Management identified stronger domestic demand, improved hotel occupancy, higher room rates, increasing management-fee income and contributions from recently acquired businesses as the principal drivers. As observed, the stock has corrected since January 2026 and showing a breakout above the 750 level. With key support at 700, stock can show further strength on better H2 performance and approach 816, 895 and beyond. Q3FY27 is festive season and year end season.

HDFC Bank Market Cap: 10,97,804 cr Market Cap 3 years back: 8,98,094 cr Market Cap 5 years back: 8,23,425 cr Q2FY27 Concall concluded on 17th October 2026. Deputy MD Kaizad Bharucha, one of the key architects of the credit architecture, has requested early retirement by December. Incoming CEO Anup Bagchi outlined near-term approach: engage regulators/customers/shareholders to gather insights; promised to return with a perspective on “growth, margins, quality, and productivity… built on discipline, capital deployment, and a strong execution culture grounded in governance, excellence, and trust.” Management stated explicitly that Q2 margin is the bottom, with the trajectory turning upward from Q3. The 25 bps rate hike in October provides a tailwind on the ~70% of the loan book that is floating-rate, largely repo-linked. What to watch next quarter: Whether the promised NIM uptick materializes given the full-quarter FCNR drag, how the new CEO frames strategic priorities, and any clarity on the draft insurance commission norms' financial impact. As observed, a potential Head & Shoulder pattern is visible in the HDFC Bank chart. Can we see a revisit of the market cap which was 3 to 5 years back? With the stock now below the neckline, the overall trend remains bearish as of now. 1) Weekly EMAs have given a negative crossover, and one scenario is a breakdown below the key level of 653 & stock continues the downward trend. 2) Bulls will need to work really hard to reverse this trend and a consolidation between the right shoulder & level of 653 is vital for them.

Quality Power Electrical Equipments Ltd Market Cap: 10,897 cr FY26 PAT: 186 cr TTM PAT: 195 cr Two key announcements in the past couple of days: 1) Quality Power Electrical Equipments Limited has commenced manufacturing operations at its new Global Coil Factory at Kupwad MIDC, Sangli, Maharashtra, with effect from 20 October 2026, coinciding with the auspicious occasion of Vijayadashami (Dussehra). The greenfield facility has been developed as a major manufacturing centre for high-voltage air core dry-type reactors and specialised coil products, catering to HVAC, HVDC, FACTS, renewable energy integration and other critical power transmission applications. The facility incorporates advanced coil winding infrastructure, dedicated high-voltage testing capabilities and integrated conductor processing facilities, including manufacturing capabilities for specialised HVDC winding conductors. The investment is intended to strengthen manufacturing integration, improve production efficiency and enhance the Group's ability to execute large and technically complex international projects. 2) The new Power Conversion Systems (PCS) manufacturing facility of our subsidiary, Endoks Energy Systems, at Niğde, Türkiye, commenced manufacturing operations on 16 October 2026. Thanking you, Yours faithfully, The facility is dedicated to the manufacturing of power electronic converters and inverters for utility scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and other grid-connected applications. As observed, stock is now below recent high of 1439.70 and approaching key levels of 1333-1264-1081. Opportunity for bulls or Hunting ground for bears?

Cyient DLM — Profitability guidance downgrade 15 October 2026 earnings call and investor presentation. Management reduced its FY27 EBITDA margin expectation from approximately 10–11% to 9–10%, reflecting higher investment expenditure and changes in revenue mix. Why guidance was reduced: The company is investing in sales capabilities, product development and new growth opportunities. Management also identified adverse revenue mix and product-development purchases as contributors to margin pressure. Material availability is affecting order execution timelines. Close below 873 will not bode well and we can see 811-757 getting tested.

Nifty 11/10/2026 What do we observe from the below chart? A triple top clearly seen and now Nifty is retesting the support zone of 22182-21743.65 The relative strength (compared vs Nasdaq) clearly gave an inherent weakness from August 2025 to December 2025 while the Nifty went up. From January 2026, Nifty gave way and is down -16% till date. Last week's low was 22179.90 and any reversal from here will be crucial for bulls to escape from any further strikes from bears! A sharp pullback will give respite and keep the channel intact. Any breakdown below this will be clear bear territory and can possibly open testing of lower levels- 21949.15-20500-19051. It is an interesting week ahead for Nifty and till we hit Diwali!

Urban Co Market Cap: 23966 cr Stock is showing good momentum after Q1FY27 commentary. Q1 FY27 Snapshot: Strong Start; Core Profits Funding InstaHelp Consolidated NTV: ₹1,465 crore (+42% YoY) Revenue: ₹528 crore (+44% YoY) Orders: 13.2 million (+79% YoY) Customer adds: ~1.2 million new customers (first time crossing 1 million in a quarter); annual transacting users (ATU): 9.3 million Adjusted EBITDA: ₹(65) crore, “almost entirely driven by InstaHelp’s loss of ₹(132) crores”Ex-InstaHelp: ₹67 crore Adj. EBITDA profit (+116% YoY) Guidance reiterated: Consolidated Adj. EBITDA breakeven by Q3 FY28; ₹1,000 crore Adj. EBITDA by FY31 Key strategic framing: Management emphasized Urban Company is balancing a “very strong core profitable engine” while “investing aggressively in InstaHelp to cement our leadership.” Engineering productivity: “more than 90–95% of our code now is written by AI,” implying cost/headcount leverage AI-driven marketing workflows (creative → deployment → optimization → redeployment) They emphasized AI is not just cost takeout but intended to “make our marketplace significantly healthier and improve our quality of service.” Over next ~2 years: Core India + International expected to remain profitable/cash-generative; margin expansion to be “disciplined,” not aggressively optimized at the expense of growth. If the positive narrative plays out in the coming quarters, then upcoming resistance levels of 163-177.50-201 will be tested upon.

Active participation by investors and traders has gone down substantially today. Fatigue playing out for everyone as Nifty falls for the 12th consecutive day!

ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank are at almost similar market caps now. ICICI Bank is at 52 week high HDFC Bank is at 52 week low Which one will you prefer to buy?

BASF India Market Cap: 17,559 cr The company receives strong operational as well as product support from BASF SE, one of the world’s leading chemical companies. High level of integration between the parent and the Indian arm reflects synergies arising from similar businesses. Stock gave a strong set of Q1FY27 numbers with OPM touching 10% after ten quarters. Technically, the stock has tested the resistance zone of 4063-4235. Weekly close above this resistance zone along with subsequent good Q2FY27 will bode well for the stock and an upside till 4501-4832-5115-5366.50 can be anticipated. Key support zone is at 3840-3615. A weekly close below this zone will nullify the bullish view.

Auto Ancillary day! Many are hitting All Time Highs 🚀 ASK Auto Uniparts Fiem Ind Sansera Inds SJS Enterprises Bosch PPAP Gabriel India Craftsman Automation Sedemac

Ujjivan SFB Market Cap: 13,761 cr The small finance bank expects its financial year 2027 RoA to be between 1.8% to 2%, compared to 1.6% earlier. The bank's management expects continued growth led by secured lending, stable margins, disciplined operating expenses and controlled credit costs. Q1FY26 Updates: Business Updates: • Total Deposits grew 24.6% YoY to ₹48,129 Cr; Highest yearly growth in last 10 quarters • CASA Deposits grew 37.8% YoY to ₹12,930 Cr • Launched new retail offerings: Mutual Fund distribution and Co-Branded Credit Cards • Gross Loan Book at ₹42,903 Cr grew sequentially 5.5%, on track for full year guidance • Gold Loan and Vehicle Finance crossed major milestone of ₹1,000 Cr GLB Drivers of Secured Loan Book: • Vehicle Finance • Gold Loan • Agri Banking Technicals: • The stock has hit an all-time high of 72.24 last week after a strong Q1FY27 result update. • As the momentum continues with the Highest Volume of the Year till date, stock has the potential to give further upside on continued business growth. • Stock has crossed its strong resistance of 65-60 as visible from the attached chart and is now in the blue-sky zone! 52 to 49 remains as important support zone now.

Massive right now! Four trees have fallen down together on both sides of Irani Cafe and Banana Leaf, Matunga Bad situation right now in Mumbai. Stay away from trees.

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