If we’re lucky enough to see upside tomorrow and / or Tuesday, you’re going to want to fade that into the 23rd-27th 🔮

$SPY weekly momentum has been in bearish territory since July, and we’ve barely been able to make new highs. This is the third time in less than two years that weekly momentum has been bearish while $SPY was pushing to new highs. 1. Q4 2024 - Q1 2025 — Weekly momentum entered bearish territory in the final, full trading week of 2024 and was never able to reclaim bullish momentum. $SPY rallied to marginal, new highs, peaking 8 weeks later, before selling -21.43% over the following 8 weeks. 2. Q4 2025 - Q1 2026 — Weekly momentum entered bearish territory at the November 2025 low and was never able to reclaim bullish momentum. $SPY rallied to marginal, new highs, peaking 10 weeks later, before selling -9.82% over the following 10 weeks. 3. Q3 2026 - Q4 2026 — Weekly momentum entered bearish territory in mid-July and hasn’t yet been able to reclaim bullish momentum. $SPY was able to rally to a marginal, new high in August before selling -3.82% over the following 6 weeks. Weekly momentum is still in bearish territory, and $SPY just rallied to yet another marginal, new high. I cannot be bullish until weekly momentum flips back to bullish. Rallies with bearish momentum are almost always met with retracements. There’s an incredibly strong probability that we get a solid retracement in the coming days / weeks based on what I’m seeing.