F_Don

Thing about Lula or Bolsonaro winning is that Brazil is still a useless irrelevant country of 200 million which produces nothing of value to the world. It is the Egypt & Indonesia of the West.

Facts and Fabrications in the Moyale Conflict Following the eruption of another round of conflict in Moyale town, social media is awash with incendiary rhetoric, false or exaggerated accusations, and gruesome pictures aimed at galvanizing support for warring factions. I have been observing and confronting some of these narratives and fake reports. Here is a concise account of what I have found to be true, as well as what has been fabricated. Factual Background => Moyale has been the epicenter of repeated clashes between the Borana and Gari communities for decades. These are closely related clans that share a language and intermixed settlements in Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya. The dispute has deep anthropological and historical roots involving territorial claims and historical grievances. However, it was exacerbated by the exploitation of these divisions by the TPLF/EPRDF government, which used to stoke clashes as a tactic to control OLF activities along the Ethiopia–Kenya border. The TPLF split the town between the Somali and Oromia regions, right along the Nairobi–Addis Ababa highway, creating conditions for frequent disputes and clashes. The area has remained largely peaceful over the last eight years since the TPLF was removed from federal power. => The latest conflict erupted over a dispute concerning the hoisting of a flag in a neighborhood. A shot fired during a wrangling among kebele militia resulted in the shooting of a young female student, triggering protests. The communal anger was inflamed by social media campaigns, which then led to mobilization for armed clashes in the town and neighboring districts. => The conflict was exacerbated by fake news from both sides, aimed at escalating a localized clan conflict into a wider Oromo–Somali conflict. Here are some of these false claims: 1) Al-Shabaab, the Somali National Army, and Somali Regional Special Forces are fighting in support of the Gari: FALSE. - While Somali Regional Police have been deployed in the last couple of days, there is no tangible evidence of the involvement of any other armed group from within Somali region, or from Somalia . 2) Oromia Special Forces, the Oromo Liberation Army, Gadaa Commando, and the Ethiopian National Defense Force are fighting on the side of the Borana: FALSE. - While Borana Zone police have been deployed and might have assisted, much of the fighting has been carried out by locally mobilized pastoralist armed men. There is no evidence of Oromia Police or ENDF deployment from outside the zone. As of now, the so-called Gadaa Commando (Oromia Peace Force) has been deployed only to Wollega to fight Fano and OLA rebels. 3) Transporting of reenforcement from far away : FALSE. - Some of the most outlandish claims allege that armies have been transported in “hundreds of buses” from Shashemene and even from as far away as Somalia. Both claims are total fabrications. Why Has a Local Incident Rapidly Escalated into a Larger Armed Clash and Intensified Tensions Among Communities in Three Countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia? => Failure of the federal and regional governments to act swiftly. The federal government, as well as the Oromia and Somali regional governments, failed to act quickly to nip the conflict in the bud. The regional states could have deployed forces to restrain clan militias on their respective sides. If that failed, a small federal police or army deployment could have intervened and brought the fighting to an end, as has been done effectively in many communal clashes elsewhere. Why, then, have the regional and federal governments failed to intervene? Negligence or complicity? =>Competition over illicit trade and criminal networks. Under both the TPLF and the current PP government, the area has been known for cross-border contraband trade, drug and human trafficking, and illegal mining. These activities have been significantly disrupted  six months ago following the arrest, imprisonment, or removal of senior police and military officers allegedly involved in facilitating and protecting them. This has forced illicit trade away from the main Addis Ababa–Nairobi highway and onto secondary roads passing through the Somali Region, including territories settled by the Gari clan. This has resulted in bitter disputes among traders, brokers, security officials, and political figures benefiting from the illicit trade. It is believed that rival gangs are agitating for and inciting clan-based clashes to settle scores and reroute or control illicit flows. They have frequently employed this tactic in the past, not only around Moyale but also in Dire Dawa and along the Addis Ababa–Jigjiga route. => The wider regional geopolitical conflict. The war between the Ethiopian government and the Tsimdo alliance, as well as its Quartet backers (Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia), has also played a role in the social media information warfare surrounding the conflict. Government cadres attribute the eruption of the clashes to Tsimdo, while Tsimdo- and Quartet-affiliated media outlets have been fanning incendiary rhetoric from both sides. However, while key alliance members might have operatives in the area, there is no evidence that they have been operationally involved in the actual fighting  so far. Still, the incendiary media campaign waged from Mogadishu to Nairobi and Cairo has lent credence to the government's assertions of a conspiracy. Suggested Solutions - Urgently deploy federal forces to intervene and stop the fighting. Disarm clan militias, particularly those possessing heavy machine guns and other heavy weapons. - Investigate and remove security officials involved in inciting or supporting the conflict. - Investigate and dismantle the illicit trade networks and mafia groups operating on both the Ethiopian and Kenyan sides of the border. - Find constitutional and political solutions to territorial disputes, including those concerning Moyale. - Finally, Oromo and Somali social media warriors should chill out. This is the kind of cousin rivalry  and occasional conflict we grew up witnessing. Do not let the social media frenzy and current geopolitical tensions turn a localized clash into a much bigger crisis.

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