Check out what FPRI worked on this week! buff.ly/DtxBQuV

US sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet were ineffective due to their tempo and enforcement, but the recently signed Graham Act lowers the evidentiary burden for designations, mitigating these issues. More in the #BearMarketBrief. buff.ly/oPH8LwY

🗓️ Virtual Event | Wednesday, September 30 | 9:00 AM EDT Join FPRI for a discussion with Katsuya Tsukamoto, Mirna Galic, and Zack Cooper as they examine the three pillars required for Japan's counterstrike capability to succeed: technical capability, strategic and decisional frameworks, and command and control. Click here to register: buff.ly/pl7gQdi.

In wars of attrition, when military operations reach a deadlock, the conflict moves into other areas to try to break it. This war has evolved from a clash of armies across a broad battlefield into a conflict aimed against Russian and Ukrainian societies with kinetic operations targeting each other’s economies. buff.ly/lDlqCW0

The gap between China’s words and behavior within the UN is likely more a result of ambivalence than cynicism. The recent slowing of Chinese growth and ingrained discomfort with hegemony explain its reluctance to supplant the United States as first among equals across international institutions. buff.ly/ozaFOXS

🗓️ Member Briefing | Iran Rebuilds its Missile Arsenal In this members-only briefing, Aaron Stein and Sam Lair will discuss how FPRI's IDAC team is leveraging open-source satellite imagery to track and assess Iran's missile capabilities and stockpiles. If you aren’t currently a member but would like to attend this and future events, please contact our Events and Development Manager, Christine Datesman, at [email protected]. buff.ly/diOxI4N

If you missed today's virtual event breaking down why Latvia is holding its 15th parliamentary elections, how the election process works, and the candidates for the upcoming October 3rd race, check out the full presentation on our YouTube channel! buff.ly/9eOq9Bo

In a piece for The New Region, Mohammed Salih details the logic behind the Houthi takeover of Bab al-Mandab and how it represents a crucial strategic gain for Iran, granting Iran increased leverage over international shipping and countering Washington's Economic D-Day strategy. buff.ly/6SUWTFY

🆕 What Stands Out in the US-Greenland-Denmark Agreement with @Becca_Pincus and @AaronStein1. buff.ly/TkXVI5C

Promising an ethical foreign policy is easier in theory than practice. Burnham managed to build a middle power coalition and keep Washington on board with sanctions on Israeli settlements, but this task may be more difficult on issues where the United States is skeptical of the middle power push. If tensions arise, will the UK press on with the coalition or pull back and let Washington effectively veto the move? buff.ly/QP4NP0V

Everyone who said, "China is all about the minimum means of reprisal," wasn't wrong for about 50 years, but at some point that changed in the minds of China's leadership. It wasn't magic; it was decisions about what was required for what China wanted to do, and no one saw it coming. What China is doing- the transformation of its nuclear force- was a discontinuous change (31:25). #ShiftingGround #OrbisJournal buff.ly/9Ubg7Bv

China continues to provide military equipment, increase trade relations, and increase foreign investment in the Sahel States following France's retreat from the region. Check out Raghvendra Kumar's analysis detailing how it is embedding itself deep into political, economic, and security structures, using this moment to expand its sphere of influence and strategic depth. buff.ly/tgqcwfA

Russia's federal government has been shifting war-related economic pressures onto regional budgets. This week's #BearMarketBrief highlights the latest consequence of this offloading. The number of specialists in health and social care establishments decreased by 4,200, while the number of medical workers fell by 19,000. Healthcare spending fell by 6 percent, and nineteen regions plan 10 percent reductions. These drops further compound existing personnel shortages in Russia's healthcare system. buff.ly/oPH8LwY

In his latest analysis, Philip Wasielewski denotes a crucial shift in the Russo-Ukrainian war: both sides have shifted their focus to breaking the will of the other's society, creating profound effects across economic and political life. The present-day situation reflects the realization that a battlefield victory is unlikely, and if neither side accepts the other's terms, a long-term stasis should be expected. Check out the full piece for more insights: buff.ly/lDlqCW0.

⏰️ Today at 11:30 AM | Latvia Goes to the Polls FPRI Baltic Sea Fellow Dr. Indra Ekmanis and Janis Chakars break down Latvia's upcoming parliamentary election, highlighting the process, candidates, and what is at stake. Register for the discussion co-hosted with the Latvian Society of Philadelphia. buff.ly/kuorRTK