Fantasy 🏈 + fantasy ⚽️. FPL: 20/21- 14k, 21/22- 1.8k, 22/23- 8.2k, 23/24- 17.8k.. then got bad? UNC grad. NC native 🇺🇸. Confirmation bias ruins everything.
Joined July 2020
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Doing some testing on the predictability of rookie picks for the 2026 season 🏈. I’ve seen debate on this topic for a while so wanted to test it out for myself.
The main goal here is to see how many teams per league we can confidently expect to be playoff 1sts or not.
Thread:🧵
Big shout out to @OTCFantasy_ . They have some awesome tools that made this exercise a lot faster than it could have been. I will put together some actionable data at the end of the season after reviewing the results.
Here are the predictions/tiers:
Realistically I could split it up even more because everything is a % in the end, but for this exercise I believe it will be helpful to have some groupings to better illustrate the results.
I am using my 11 paid dynasty leagues on sleeper (not including the free league I am in and no redraft leagues are included) so a sample size of 132 teams across 11 leagues.
I am also breaking each team/pick into tiers so when looking back I have a basis for confidence levels.
Clear pen on Digne. Incredibly foolish. But prime example why I believe pk rule needs an overhaul. Pure accident trying to kick the ball, edge of box in no danger of being in on goal. Punishment just doesn’t = crime and is a shame huge games get decided by such negligible stuff
Every World Cup 🏆 game ranked! I’d say I wrote this for everyone to read…but really I just did for myself because I have obsession with ranking everything. But maybe there’s someone else out there can’t say no to looking at a ranking. So here you go:
open.substack.com/pub/fplmah…
Yeah somehow Argentina v Cape Verde has already been eclipsed. 10/10 scenes at the Azteca- one of the best games ever. Decent shot that’s game of the tournament right there and definitely will be #1 in my ranks for far.
