Australia's Q3 CPI lands tomorrow, and it could make or break expectations for another RBA hike in November. CBA, NAB and ANZ forecast trimmed mean inflation of 1% q/q, with Westpac slightly lower at 0.9%. Both exceed the RBA's estimated August baseline of 0.8%, reinforcing concerns that inflation is proving more persistent than anticipated. With markets pricing around a 62% chance of a November hike, there's plenty of scope for repricing in either direction. Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

ECB Meeting Preview: EUR/USD Bears Face a Sentiment Test forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

I still like NZD/CAD for its longer-term, bullish inflection point potential. RBNZ and BOC meetings this week. I still think RBNZ may have the hawkish edge - and if oil prices do pull back, it's another bullish clue for the cross.

Slightly more hawkish cash rate curve compared to Friday, following RBA Hunter's comments on Sunday

Oil & Forex Outlook: Brent’s $5 Gap Lower, USD/JPY Under Pressure youtu.be/CZyEjHCnOAA?si=XqmW…

EUR/USD is defiantly holding support despite surge of record short bets US Dollar Bulls Hold Firm, but Euro Warns of Squeeze Risk | COT Report forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

60-minutes: Has the RBA done enough after 4 hikes? RBA Hunter: "Unfortunately, not quite yet." Another hawkish signal from the RBA, despite rising unemployment and weakening business sentiment. All eyes now turn to Wednesday's Q3 CPI, which could tip the balance towards a fifth hike in November.

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Rising energy costs continue to do its thing - with September's raw materials rising 27% y/y in Canada (crude component +55%), producer prices up 14.5% (petroleum 64%). This reinforces the existing hawkish outlook rather than establishing a new policy shift - with expectations for a BOC hike next week ~80%.

Japan's core inflation (ex fresh food) hit estimates of 2.1% y/y, marking its first print above 2% this year. The BOJ is expected to hold next week after hiking in September, but a weak yen and rising import costs add to inflation risks, keeping the door open for further tightening.