BBA-Finance (Honors), CMT Level 1,2; investor. Equities, options, futures. Following macro, following themes, run a concentrated portfolio, hedging when needed.
Canada
Joined November 2022
- Tweets2.6K
- Following313
- Followers69
- Likes16K
Evolution Trading retweeted
Here’s why Anthropic is now going ALL IN on compute.
Since June, Anthropic’s growth has stalled, while the combined revenue growth of Anthropic and OpenAI has remained VERY solid.
OpenAI is eating up market share. The reason? OpenAI has the capacity. Anthropic doesn’t.
Evolution Trading retweeted
Jensen highlights that personalized agents (Muse, Grok Bot) will push token usage “through the roof.”
My take: One of the clearer reasons compute demand should keep ramping for the next few years. Agents can consume 10-15x the tokens of a chatbot.
Today roughly 15m consumers use bots daily. In a few years that could be billions. $NVDA
Evolution Trading retweeted
SPCX should be up 30% today.
Here’s a great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says. Bottom line, analysts cut the low end of his guide in half.
Last night he said they’ll exit 2027 with $500B-$1T in revenue run rate. I believe Elon implied the low was based on adding 10 GW of compute in CY27 and the high end 20 GW.
My take is there’s a 75% chance they add 10 GW, and 2% chance of 20 GW. So we should focus on the low end, or $500B in ARR exiting 2027, or $125B in Dec-27.
Before earnings, the Street was at $31B for Dec-27. He guided to $125B or 300% increase. $SPCX is up 12% on that. It should be 30% plus today.
This morning the Street is at $50B. Since many analysts have yet to update numbers, we look at those that have made changes, and those are at around $70B, compared to the “guide” of $125B. That’s the 50% haircut.
Evolution Trading retweeted
$SPCX: Couldn't ask for more from the Q. Beat across board, segment - TR/EBITDA/OI/EPS. GM 62% vs 59% expected, OM 19% vs 12% expected and Capex in line. Set it and forget it...
Evolution Trading retweeted
Elon says will bring on more than 10 gigawatts of capacity next year. Aims or 20 gigawatts so its in excess to turn the GPUs on.
Says it used to be zero change that they had 20 gigawatts of compute next year. Now he says its a non-zero chance.
Translation: Capex is going to be higher next year than the Street is currently thinking at $162B. We have not get formal Capex guide. $SPCX
Evolution Trading retweeted
ELON MUSK TARGETS 13 GW OF AI COMPUTE BY 2027, WITH 440,000 NVIDIA VERA RUBIN GPUS IN A SINGLE TRAINING CLUSTER
Musk says SpaceX is on track to bring roughly 200,000 $NVDA GB300 GPUs online per month for the remainder of 2026, with deployments continuing at a similar pace next year, primarily using Vera Rubin.
The company expects to have 2.5-3 GW of compute online by the end of 2026, with another 10 GW potentially coming online in 2027.
Musk also plans to have a 440,000-GPU Vera Rubin training cluster operational by the end of Q2 2027.
To support the expansion, SpaceX is targeting an additional 20 GW of power and cooling infrastructure next year.
Musk said there is a “non-zero possibility” of exceeding 20 GW of operational AI compute in 2027, although he acknowledged the probability remains small.
Evolution Trading retweeted
Elon says Grok Bot may over time use most of SpaceX compute. In other words, Grok Bot growth will be over the top.
My take: Today there are only about 15m daily personalized bots world wide. Most Muse. My guess is 5m Grok Bot. I expect 50m daily Grok Bot users in 6 months. $SPCX
Evolution Trading retweeted
.@nickshirleyy: "When I exposed fraud, instead of the mainstream media investigating the fraud, they investigated me."
"They called the Learing Center and asked the Learing Center if they were committing fraud. That was the extent of their reporting." 😭
Evolution Trading retweeted
Giorgia Meloni just passed new measures that will end the “student protests” really fast.
If you take part in a violent demonstration, you face up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to €20,000.
The sentence is harsher if faces are covered or people are injured.
Parents are now financially liable for the damage and vandalism their underage children cause.
Police can detain 14–17 year olds who pose a danger, even without a prior crime.
She also deployed 500 army troops to Milan alongside police to protect the city through the end of the year.
This is great. Now she just needs to mass deport them all!
Evolution Trading retweeted
$SPCX will likely be raising money in next six months, my take.
They got asked the question. Bret says they're in a good place and are currently talking to debt providers.
Have operating cash flows.
Have an investment grade and a balance sheet which opens they up to debt.
Can get vendor financing.
Evolution Trading retweeted
$SPCX may beat OpenAI and Anthropic due to sheer availability of compute.
Elon has been perfecting power distribution and liquid cooling in Tesla EVs and Megapacks for two decades now and can pump out BTM like no other.
OpenAI and Anthropic will need a jump start on physical infrastructure w/ $IREN. Frontier Labs and Hyperscalers are going to be scared AF of Elon's 10-20GW and working overtime to secured power shell / bare metal capacity. No CEO wants to be the Steve Balmer of AI and be remembered for missing the opportunity, especially not Zuck and Sam.
$SPCX: "Grok bot, our agentic assistant, launched in August. And we already had paid weekly users of 800,000 earlier this month, more than doubling over the last month"
WTF!
Evolution Trading retweeted
Evolution Trading retweeted
Odds of $SPCX + $TSLA combo just inched up.
The question came up on the call. Elon says he thinks it’s a good idea, and there are a lot of merits to combining the companies, but shareholders still have to be supportive.
Believe me, shareholders would support this.
Elon says there are special committees at request of shareholders to discuss the topic. He is a conflicted party so he can't be in the conversation.
My take: 95% chance in the next two years.
Evolution Trading retweeted
Holy smokes!!!!
$SPCX says Q4 capex will be $35-40 billion versus $18-19 billion from sell-side estimates.
Elon also says they can bring on 10 GW of compute in 2027 in addition to the 2.5+ GW they expect to have by the end of 2026.
This means $SPCX capex in 2027 could be $300-400B billion (ie $30-40B per GW) vs current sell-side estimates of $165B.
From Elon… “At current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year. Pricing is currently tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range we were discussing just last quarter, which further supports the attractiveness of these terrestrial SI compute investments.”
From Elon… "I think the demand for bandwidth is going to be dramatically higher than it is today. I think in three to five years there is probably a demand for 1,000 times more bandwidth than there is currently, because AI or SI agents will on a per-agent basis use far more bandwidth than a person, and there will be far more agents than there are people... With next year being primarily Rubin, I would say I am fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That would be in addition to the roughly 3 gigawatts, maybe 2.5 to 3 gigawatts that we will have online by the end of this year. Let me put it this way. I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year."
…and to think that some of you are bearish on ai infrastructure 🙄 while the clowns at Gartner think demand is lagging supply 🤣
Evolution Trading retweeted
@elonmusk $spcx just told everyone to speed up
Your move @DarioAmodei @AnthropicAI @sama @OpenAI @Meta @finkd
Evolution Trading retweeted
Huge guide up in Capex. CFO Bret Johnsen says Dec quarter Capex of $35-$40B.
Street was at $19B.
$SPCX went up on the comment. Now up 5.2%. Was up 4% before the Capex comment.
My take: Smart move. They have the demand. Also, good news for the AI trade that we are still early.
Evolution Trading retweeted
$SPCX reports solid beats across the board. Thats good news for neoclouds.
Beat the SI business (compute) segment by 17%. This is profitable revenue and a sign that the narrative that we have oversupply of compute is off base.
SI was 52% of revenue in Sept, up from 33% in June quarter.