Matt | https://xitter.cf/t.co/QEZtw7nqje
Joined September 2025
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Wrote a review of @pascaldottrade, a new prediction market exchange.
Main takeaway is it's an interesting new entrant which has potential. Liquidity is pretty good, APIs are great, fees are lower. Read the whole thing though.
substack.com/home/post/p-221…
Good article. Most interesting tidbit is that Shayne can't get fired
Polymarket has been a bit of a mess, but I prefer him in charge over the likely alternatives
scoops! @antoniabmassa and i dug into the push and pull between polymarket investors and the prediction market's CEO, shayne coplan.
story features private jet flights, elon musk's personal lawyer, talks with goldman sachs as well as cantor fitzgerald
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Thought I was having some type of cardiac event, but turns out just a strained pec muscle. All that stuff is too close together
I’m testing out pascal this week
Will probably do a review afterwards, so be on the lookout
Our midterms rewards program ends in 3 weeks, on November 4th, and there is still 45,000 USD remaining to be distributed to traders
If you have been thinking of trying Pascal, now is a great time to do it
app.pascal.trade/?utm_source…
eventwaves retweeted
Data centers are a political problem in the US, an energy problem in Europe, and an arms smuggling problem in China.
eventwaves retweeted
Kalshi’s election combos lets us back out implied correlation between Senate races. Quickly vibe coded with Claude: Avg ≈ 0.34 after 4 days of data & small sample. Market makers are still pricing some pairs like they’re unrelated.
HT to retired trader who came up with idea.
Perhaps there's a good reason, but this whole investigation looks quite bad
I'm not smart enough to understand why scandals do or don't win the public's attention, but I was blown away by this reporting from @CGorrivan, @ElleBeyoud and @nicola_m_white. If you're interested in markets, it's worth your time. Here's a gift link bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Lots of banks reporting earnings this week
Seems like they like to report as early as possible
I've always thought banking would be the hardest sector to cover
New Matt Levine podcast today featuring the head of SIG prediction markets
Interesting that the biggest institutional hedging demand is coming from datacenter construction
Wonder if a Polymarket institutional affiliate is doing something similar and that's why rewards are so high
Interesting how everyone's brain is different
I have to push myself to take 'longshot bets', even when +EV. I hate the feeling of multiple losses in a row. Feels like I'm feeding money into an incinerator
eventwaves retweeted
A common misconception about prediction markets are that the if there is low liquidity, the price is inaccurate
Believe me, if you move something far off the FV , liquidity will come real quick and correct it
There are three explanations for why Polymarekt and Kalshi are so far off the mark:
A. Users skew heavily towards younger degens who are betting ideologically on low-volumes
B. Democrats are using as a cheap marketing mechanism to drive lower Republican turnout as $1-2m of volume within the context of $100m+ campaign budgets make it a no-brainer ROAS
C. Trump admin is manipulating to keep the Chinese, Iranians and Europeans discombobulated allowing them to think Trump will be a lame duck for the next two years
I’m partial to option B but we’ll probably never know 🤷♂️
SuperFastMatt went ~100mph faster than he intended and lost his racing licenses
His car had two sensors reading correctly and 1 sensor reading 0. His speedometer averaged the 3 readings, so he thought he was going much slower than reality
This failure type is common. Careful with averages!
Revived one of my old projects
It finds all the recent podcast mentions of your team
Made it because it was hard to find Panthers talk! chatterbx.com/
I’m mainly a ‘slop market’ trader and whenever I see stuff like this I feel a twinge of sports fomo
How do you find the 'target size' needed to earn liquidity incentives on Kalshi?
I'm sure it's somewhere, but I can't find it
