European policy research at @UniofOxford, Dahrendorf Programme 🌍 We explore shifts in global and EU politics — and share our insights with you
Oxford, UK
Joined April 2025
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New paper from #EuropeInAChangingWorld 📄 Can Europe avoid a war with Russia? @SamorukovM (@CarnegieRussia) argues the Kremlin now treats conflict with Europe as inevitable, and that escalation has become its path of least resistance. 🧵(1/4) sant.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Why escalate? Defence spending is what now keeps Russia out of recession. The security services’ crackdown has become self-perpetuating. For Putin, the war is the basis of his power and relevance. Demilitarising would cost the regime too much. (3/4)
The risk isn’t an all-out war. It’s a short, targeted strike meant to test Article 5, around flashpoints like Kaliningrad, the shadow fleet or sabotage. Samorukov’s prescription: a direct line to Moscow, and coordinated responses agreed in advance. Read 👉 sant.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Europe in a Changing World retweeted
Thank you for joining us today.
Closing the discussion, @DimitarBechev noted that Carnegie Europe and @EuropeInChange will continue this work together.
Missed it? Re-Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=wrx4Z4ZO…
The Russian Orthodox Church has become a co-author of Kremlin policy—including in Europe. Read how it fuels Moscow’s anti-Western agenda in a new paper by Dahrendorf scholar Natalia Zhdanova sant.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
How has the EU recalibrated its approach to the Global South? New paper by Dahrendorf Scholar Mohammed Amaan Asim argues the shift is clear: from norms to realpolitik. Dialogue over ultimatums, trade over conditionality. Read more: sant.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Hungary’s illiberal governance became a model for Trump, argues Dahrendorf scholar Chaya Steinsaltz. She examines how Orbán’s “enemy” politics, autocratic legalism, and civilisational rhetoric were adapted by the new U.S. authorities. Read paper here ➡️ sant.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Trump’s claims on #Greenland are shaking transatlantic relations. How can Europe respond to the US? On the first anniversary of Trump’s presidency, @JyShapiro examines Europe’s options and introduces the idea of “conscious uncoupling.” Read the paper: bit.ly/4qDhWRm
▪️How should Europe respond to China’s bid for global leadership? In our new paper, Dr Janka Oertel explores two paths: deeper integration into China’s economic orbit, or a turn toward strategic competition. Learn more ➡️ sant.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
#Europe #China #Geopolitics
Europe can’t secure itself without Turkey. Yet distrust and limited cooperation still block real partnership. How Brussels and Ankara can bridge the gap — read the new paper by Galip Dalay (Chatham House; Oxford Univ., Dahrendorf Programme) europeanmoments.com/changing…
Before Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, it is worth recalling the article by @fromTGA Timothy Garton Ash: "For the foreseeable future Europe will face a revanchist Russia determined to regain effective control over as much of its former empire as it can" timothygartonash.substack.co…
Europe in a Changing World retweeted
9 years ago today, a narrow majority of Brits voted for #Brexit. Even bigger than economic cost is that to Britain's soft power, international clout & sense of strategic direction.
How can you be a 'bridge' with no firm foundations on either the EU or (now) the US river bank?
“Trump will never stop being hostile toward Europe.”
An insightful take on US–EU relations by foreign policy experts Robert Kagan (Brookings) and @DimitarBechev (Dahrendorf Programme). The article is in German—but easy to follow and well worth translating aufruhr-magazin.de/europa/ro…
Europe in a Changing World retweeted
Poland will be politically hamstrung just when Europe most needs it to be strong. My first take on Poland's presidential election in my History of the Present Substack newsletter (subscribe – it's free!).
open.substack.com/pub/timoth…
Europe in a Changing World retweeted
Interesting take on Robert Kagan's Dahrendorf lecture by @ezgibasaran
ezgibasaran.substack.com/p/i…
Key notes from Dahrendorf Lecture by Dr. Kagan •Ideological component in Trump’s anti-liberal policies •Europe is increasingly vulnerable, caught between an anti-liberal US & anti-liberal Russia •EU must strengthen its security to protect liberal values @merics_eu @FNFreiheit
The Dahrendorf Lecture, "After Paradise: The US, EU, and UK in a Disordered World" by Dr. Robert Kagan (Brookings Institution), is happening tonight! Save the link and join the livestream at 5 GMT podcasts.ox.ac.uk/Dahrendorf… @MercatorDE @FNFreiheit
Key insights from Day 1 of the Dahrendorf Colloquium, focused on Europe–China relations:
🔹Trump policies brought the EU and China closer
🔹It's the right time to restructure the partnership
🔹Opportunities in trade, security, tech & climate
@fromTGA @DimitarBechev
A New World (Dis)Order is the theme of this year’s Dahrendorf Lecture and Colloquium. How will Europe navigate this new reality? International experts are coming to Oxford to discuss global challenges. Join the livestream of Friday's lecture by Dr. Kagan podcasts.ox.ac.uk/Dahrendorf…