$Oil is getting dangerously close to levels where the next major decision could be made. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, price continues to face heavy pressure and the downside remains intact for now. Key support levels: 🚨 74.40 currently holding 🚨 71.40 next major support 🎯 66.50 potential counter-trend sweet spot for a nice reversal if it gets there. Why 66.50 matters: • Major institional support area combined with a T target where moves tend to terminate • Near lower band confluence • Potential location for a significant bounce • Area where risk/reward begins to improve for bulls Technical backdrop: • Downside pressure remains strong • Volatility remains elevated following the FOMC meeting • Headlines continue to dominate short-term price action The wildcard remains geopolitics. Any disruption involving the Strait of Hormuz or Middle East escalation could quickly change the narrative and create a sharp reversal. • Major institutional support area combined with a T target where moves tend to terminate • Watch 74.40 and 71.40 closely • Monitor 66.50 for a potential counter-trend opportunity if price gets there • Stay disciplined in this volatile environment For now, price remains under pressure, but the lower it gets, the more interesting the setup becomes in OIL. Personally, I don't think the issues in the Middle East have gone away. Time will tell, but I suspect the market may be underestimating the geopolitical risks still on the table. That said, oil continues to trade as though there is a hidden hand suppressing prices. Whether that's the result of policy actions, strategic reserves, positioning, or other market forces remains open to debate, but it's hard to ignore the disconnect between the headlines and the price action. Full breakdown in the video below 👇