meeting the moment
brookyln, new york
Joined March 2012
- Tweets2.7K
- Following2.7K
- Followers2.4K
- Likes207K
GOP meddling in Dem primaries may have paid huge dividends here. Joe Baldacci, who ran 7 points ahead of Harris in his 2024 state senate race, was hit with more than $500,000 in Republican spending and narrowly lost the nomination in the primary.
The Florida house democrats who stood their ground, ran in gerrymandered seats, and are now winning are LIONS
AES ran 3.8 points behind Benson, though his was the most heavily contested race in the state. Worth stressing, small margins can have large consequences. Slotkin ran 1.8 points ahead of Harris and won. Peters ran just 1.1 behind Biden and but was able to hang on.
Jon Ossoff ran 6 to 9 points ahead of every other statewide Democrat on the Georgia ballot, in a state where the ticket usually moves together (2016 and 2022 being notable exceptions).
Another way of thinking about overperformance: the median House candidate on the Slow Boring slate ran 2.7 points ahead of the median contested House swing in their state. (Still waiting on counts in Colorado and Alaska.)
A smaller set of races and with a lot of overlap with the Blue Dogs but @ElectTheBench ran ahead of other Democratic challengers by 3-5 points
On the Davis result, NC-01 swung much less than the state as a whole, and Davis nearly matched Cooper’s margin in the district. An incredible result considering Cooper won by about 20 points statewide. xitter.cf/EthanBWinter/status/21…
Blue Iowa is such an incredible sight to behold. A double digit margin in the gubernatorial race. Turek by four. It's remarkable.
A smaller set of races and with a lot of overlap with the Blue Dogs but @ElectTheBench ran ahead of other Democratic challengers by 3-5 points
Resharing: working on a more formal measure of overperformance, but preliminarily @BlueDogBark backed challengers ran 4.6 pts better than other Dem challengers after controls. Bobby Pulido’s +43 in TX-15 was truly extraordinary.
ethan winter retweeted
I don’t think it’s quite this. I think it’s simpler.
People voted in the opposite direction of Trump. In places that were super red (MS, IN), they had to push blue hard to get back in balance.
In places that were already blue (MI, MN), they did so less strongly.
It’s worth being more precise about the regional swing variation. We saw smaller shifts in Midwestern states with Democratic governors, like Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But Indiana swung as hard as the South. (Votes still being counted.)
The other place where we won back voters lost during the trump era in a major way is the Rio Grande Valley, with Pulido, Cuellar, and Vicente Gonzalez all outpacing *Hillary Clinton's* margins.
Resharing: working on a more formal measure of overperformance, but preliminarily @BlueDogBark backed challengers ran 4.6 pts better than other Dem challengers after controls. Bobby Pulido’s +43 in TX-15 was truly extraordinary.
Jamie Ager appears to be the only House Dem in North Carolina running ahead of Roy Cooper. An amazing candidate and campaign
ethan winter retweeted
The TSUNAMI has joint parentage w/ persuasion + turnout, w/ standouts like Turek relying less on it than others, but relatively balanced across the battleground
Bc we have @Nate_Cohn's HAV & ex-APV team's contribution, we can do ~irresponsible-ish things.
Broke out % of shift in SEN BG attributable to persuasion (vs. turnout) using calibrated Harris recall. Big overperformers rely less on turnout -- 50% on avg (30% in IA vs 60% in MI)
