Building frontier systems for forecasting. https://xitter.cf/t.co/sR38zrrinp
Joined February 2024
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Eternis retweeted
Models know when they’re reward hacking. But they still do it a ton - in 50-96% of rollouts we studied!
We built activation monitors that detect the behavior behind the Hugging Face hack in real time. This can help us stop hacks now - and train future models that don’t cheat. 🧵
Eternis retweeted
Language models as forecasters can be accurate while being badly calibrated and overconfident. Their chain-of-thought can also omit the evidence that actually changed a forecast.
In this new work, we find that internal activations give us a much more reliable signal! 1/6
Can LLMs predict the next World Cup champion?
Goodfire partnered with @EternisAI to improve how LLM forecasters use available evidence and manage uncertainty.
We found models were overconfident in their predictions – but probes significantly improved calibration. (1/6)
Eternis retweeted
Can LLMs predict the next World Cup champion?
Goodfire partnered with @EternisAI to improve how LLM forecasters use available evidence and manage uncertainty.
We found models were overconfident in their predictions – but probes significantly improved calibration. (1/6)
