Eric Thor (@EricSThor) header
Eric Thor (@EricSThor) profile picture

Retired Banking Executive, Trader and Dad. Armchair economist and policy wonk. 🇨🇦

Canada
Joined October 2012
Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)Photo by Eric Thor (@EricSThor)
God Help You If You Don't Report a T5 with $507! $4.5B in COVID benefits (CERB) to people who weren't eligible or were overpaid will be written off and any effort to recoup payment will be abandoned. This is compounded by the $5.6B in business loans (CEBA) that either though business failure or ineligibility will also be written off. That works out to ~$450 per net taxpayer that has vanished due to program malfeasance (not including any previous years write offs). Conservatively just on the CERB side that is a 6% program disbursement error but in all likelihood it is much higher. This costs all taxpaying Canadians but also sends the message that our government is unserious when it comes to fraud but may the lord strike you down if you forget to report a T5 slip with $507 in interest because it got lost in the mail. 😔 #covidrelief #taxpayers #cdnpoli
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💬❌🎬 All Talk + No Action = No Results The table below captures the themes of the last 11 years of Liberal budgeting. What you'll notice is a gratuitous use of the words "Middle Class" and "Affordable". They have certainly marketed their budgets as helping Canadians but what did they really achieve? What you'll also notice is that household indebtedness (vs income) has more or less remained in and around 180%, which is the worst/highest in both the G7 and G20. Our federal government gross debt (vs GDP) has also ballooned from 91% in 2015 to 114% in 2025. (In keeping with the IMF practice and our own PBO I refuse to recognize Mark Carney's new definition of 'net debt' where they take our pension assets and include them so they can further leverage our country into oblivion). So quite simply put, if Canadian households balance sheets have stagnated and the federal government has become poorer where did all that borrowed money go? I have some ideas, what do you think? #Budget2026 #cdnpoli #GovernmentWaste
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2️⃣💲 2 Budget Predictions That I'm Going to Bookmark 1. The Plan to End Homelessness: The Government has allocated $30B over the next decade to combat chronic homelessness. As per the latest budget release there are 65,000 people experiencing homelessness for at least one night. Prediction: The number of homeless people will INCREASE not decrease over the next decade. No different than jurisdictions like California where the money allocated in the last 5 years ballooned to ~$37B ($42k/person per year) and over a 10 year period homelessness has increased by ~60%. The reality is you've seen NGOs with $700k/year CEOs and $250k/year housing social workers not make a dent in the actual problem. Why would they solve the problem and put themselves out of a 6 figure salary? 2. The Canada Creative Credit for Artists: Under this program, qualifying Canadian artists will not pay personal income tax on up to $45,000 of annual net business income derived from original and creative artistic works. Prediction: This is going to constitute a very big tax loophole for the wealthy who are the biggest patrons of the arts. The optics of the provision alone is awful given we have a PM and MP who were found to have participated in some unsavoury art deals which cost the MP his journalism job at the CBC in 2015. Time will tell I suppose... #Budget2026 #cdnpoli #loophole
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Government advertising?? I remember when that used to just be called propaganda.
“@CanadianPM Carney increased government advertising by $345 million in last year’s budget. Partisan slogans now feature prominently in taxpayer-funded advertisements… Carney also [raised] the threshold by which an independent review of advertising runs is triggered.”🤔
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A class response from @Publera from @perplexity_ai in response to one of their sponsored programs personalities calling for the execution of @elonmusk. We need to take the temperature down in political discourse on all sides. Great that sponsors take this serious. On a side note, I didn’t see @Jason becoming my favourite bestie in 2026. Incredible leadership on this issue.
We stopped all upcoming placements on prof g markets and existing placements are being removed. We acted immediately when @KatieMiller flagged it. (these were part of small test by 3p agency) Source, I’m responsible for Perplexity’s marketing.
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🇨🇦📉An Indictment of Failing Policies I can't think of a more damning statistic that outlines the failure of our current government than the infographic below. We just saw a referendum south of the border where the electorate held the current administration to account on their failing economy/affordability crisis. It speaks volumes about Canada that our PMs popularity rises with each economic failure. Even worse, if we took out the non-recurring World Cup the picture would likely look even worse. With the recent Budget calling for 750,000 immigrants/year, has anybody thought to ask: 1. Where will they work? 2. Where will they live? 3. How will we feed them? #jobs #cdnpoli #canada
🇨🇦 vs 🇺🇸 2026 job creation. Updated for October. 🇨🇦 supports the top, supposedly. 🇺🇸 rejected the bottom which includes reducing gov't jobs by ~250,000.
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🇨🇦The Budget: Much Ado About Nothing For the Average Canadian Reading through the latest Liberal budget and while I think there are positive changes, the average working Canadian will largely be left feeling unheard. Here are 3 of the more significant budget line items: 👍GOOD: Productivity Mega Deduction (~36B over 5 years): Benefit new businesses by allowing immediate write off of equipment, plants, software etc. and ostensibly cutting the marginal tax rate to ~6.4%. This is the lowest rate in the G7 and will encourage further investment and enable Canadian businesses to succeed earlier in their business cycle. This may indirectly benefit the average Canadian through job creation. 👎🏻BAD: The Grocery Rebate was increased by 50% for those eligible. The income testing is so low that this is just more money for the people that don't work so they can buy the groceries that those who do work still can't afford, paid for by those workers that can't afford groceries. Reminder that 1 in 3 Canadians are borrowing to pay for groceries and I'm not sure they are benefitting from this policy as a two parent household with two children that makes over $73592 receive ZERO dollars. 👺UGLY: Immigration levels: ~380,000 permanent residents and ~370,000 temporary residents per year will be added into a country that is already strained to deliver services to the existing populaton. The average Canadian is struggling with housing affordability, a strained healthcare system and foodbanks are already turning away people. This compounds the problems the average Canadian is already experiencing and that is without considering the economic effects of increasing the labour supply i.e. wage suppression. Not sure if they thought to reach out to 'regular folk' but I'm sure the 'average Canadian' might like relief on their suite of tax bills. Afterall that is the single biggest line item in the average Canadian household, more than shelter, food or education costs. What did you like/dislike about the 2026 Budget? #BudgetDay #cdnpoli #Budget2026
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In fairness to all the sponsors listed, there's no way they could have predicted that this unhinged lunatic would call for the execution of someone in a 'fireside chat'. It's what they do next that matters...
If you sponsor this podcast, calling for the execution of Elon Musk, I will never use your product… and will buy from both of your top two competitors This is unacceptable and dangerous. This a dog whistle to murder someone because you disagree with them — and this is the same guy who joked about the assassination against President Trump. Fuck this piece of shit.
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Every Internet Conversation In 2026 Whatever happened to objective truth, it has been replaced with progressive statements like 'my truth'. In the arena of economics and finance I see so much incorrect information being shared... to be clear it comes from the right, the left and even (maybe especially) the government. In economics and finance we are living in a world where language has been redefined to mislead people (IMO). For example, activities like deficit spending on operational expenses have now been redefined as "investing'. When we can't agree on the foundation of truth (i.e. facts), it's no wonder we can never agree on the downstream impacts. What do you think is the greatest topic of misinformation on the internet? Economy? Politics? Science? #misinformation #tribalism #cdnpoli
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Only the economic and financially illiterate will believe Champagne.
Francois Champagne at the 🇨🇦 Club this morning. ❓ GDP growth has been flat, job growth has eroded, what do you do if you're not getting it right? Here's his answer. 1⃣ It takes time ➡️ Gone is "speeds not seen in generations." 2⃣ The MPO will support growth ➡️ The politicized, black box that approved 1 project & will take 3 years to get a FID on the Pacific Link pipeline? That growth? 3⃣ Fiscal discipline ➡️ $733 billion in debt over the next 5 years is discipline?? 🤪 4⃣ Balance our operating spending ➡️ You moved most of it to capital and called it investment. It's still debt. Nice shell game. 5⃣ No other G7 country has the fiscal room ➡️ Instead of a reasonable regulatory, taxation & approval environment that attracts private capital investment we'll go full socialist & control everything with debt spending. 6⃣ Masters of our own destiny ➡️ The new slogan. Thanks for playing. 👻 I truly fear that we are not going to dig our way out of the destruction the Liberals are causing.
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🇪🇺🇨🇦 Canadians Support What Exactly? Hard not to notice the chaos happening in Europe right now and it should have Mark Carney questioning aligning Canadian interests with the EU. 🇫🇷 France: Riots and civil unrest has destroyed parts of France with EU immigration policy being a leading contributor 🇮🇹 Italy: Clashes and looting in Milan, Turin, Bologna around cost of living and low wages. 🇪🇸 Spain: Housing protests and tent encampments have lead to rioting. Who can forget those images of Ceuta. 🇧🇪 Belgium: Clashes in Brussels and Liège; tear gas, water cannons, arrests. PM has offered his resignation over a budget crisis. 🇩🇪 Germany: Gen Z have led marches and violence has broken out in Frankfurt, Berlin, Hamburg and Cologne. 🇵🇱 Poland: Tusk the EU plant tried to subvert judicial process with the aim of taking the country off the Zloty and transferring gold reserves to Germany The civil unrest aside, it's a failing economy with slow growth. EU policy is failing Europeans. What exactly is the appeal for aligning Canadian policy with the European Union? #eu #canada #EuropeanUnion
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🇨🇦 The New Face of the Canadian Establishment I want to take the high road on this but by virtue of posting this it may come across as 'punching down'. Full context: the full ~14 minute video is of this person lamenting about how they are being discriminated against by members of their own drag community for not conforming to the 'aesthetic' of what a drag performer should look like. I won't pile on with the many posts already out there ridiculing their appearance; my page isn't about being mean. Here's the thing though, I don't think it's 'punching down'. A reminder that this is the side who controls who governs us, they have full support of the media and academia champions their ideology. These fringe groups are not so fringe anymore and collectively they are actually the new face of the establishment in Canada. #fringe #cdnpoli #yxe
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🤕📉 Canadians Are Economic Masochists We had lived through 10 years of slow/no economic growth and it appears we just signed up for 4 more years. Our economy continues to lag the G7 average and we were the only country in a recession (technical or otherwise) in the G20. Based on expected September GDP and the interest rate increase, it appears like it's about to get worse. Here are how I expect the ensuing comments to go: LPC Supporters: But TRUMP!!!!! Me: Mexico was part of the same trade agreement as us with the US and they're not in a recession, in fact looking at their strong F26 Q3 they're looking at a growth rate of 3.6% (more than doubling our economic growth in the same time period). LPC Supporter: they just bent over to Trump, Canadians aren't stupid. Me: Economic prosperity for your citizens and acknowledging that Trump will be gone in 2 years is bending over? LPC Supporter: Maplamagat you should just kill yourself Me: Have a nice day, enjoy your stagflation. #Recession #stagflation #G7
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😡Which Side is the Tolerant One? This week alone the hostility of the progressive left has been on display. Let me be clear, there are no doubt examples of this on both sides of the political spectrum but what feels unique about this is the 'mainstreaming' of it on the left. The examples below come from a journalist that writes for taxpayer funded publications including the CBC and the other is an elected public official in BC. What I find most reprehensible is that the journalist receives taxpayer funds to spew this hate and the MLA in BC has ~32% conservatives in her own riding. In both cases, I have yet to see an apology and there has been ZERO coverage on any of our government funded media. If a Conservative said either of these things, there would be wall-to-wall coverage and there would be a panel of experts assembled on the dangers of hate speech. I try to post in good faith and so I don't have a blindspot/being fed by the algo... if there are mainstream Canadians on the right that are advocating actual violence or harm share the examples below? #hatespeech #cdnpoli
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3 Reason Mark Carney Is Having a Bad Week It's been a real hat-trick of misery for Mark Carney this week; here are 3 Headlines and what they mean: 1. The EU: Canada has been 'uninvited' from EU "associate membership" just days before hosting EU leaders in Canada. This is an embarrassment for Mark Carney and his government after all the posturing they've done complete with paid pollsters telling Canadians that 75% of them wanted this. Alas, he's even failing at the stuff I don't want him to do. (guess I should be happy) 2. Rate Hike: based on the inflation outlook the BoC has responded with a hike and this invariably will make life for Canadians more expensive. What is the real damning part for this government is ideally rate hikes come as a result of economic growth. In our case there has been slow growth for a decade and since Q1 2025 there has been an actual contraction in the economy. IMO we are heading into a period of STAGFLATION, all the markers are there: falling purchasing power, job loss, raising rates cause spiralling deterioration... This is a death spiral that takes years to get out of and impact low wage workers the most. 3. EU Carbon Tax: Remember that time we thought it was a good idea to carbon tax our steel producers because the LPC promised this would gain access to new markets. A leaked missive from the EU trade commission indicated they will still uphold their import tariff (carbon border adjustment) on all Canadian steel. This the sort of tariff is the reason we blew up our relationship with the US and the shrewd negotiations of the LPC has now ensured there is NO market for Canadian steel in the EU or the US. Is this what winning feels like? #markcarney #europeanunion #Canada
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😍⚒ Carney's Peculiar Love Affair With Authoritarians Whether it's deepening trade strategy with China or now celebrating a highly 'irregular' election result in Brazil. Our Prime Minister never misses the opportunity to align himself with authoritarians. Surely, he would have had access to all the information the rest of the world has when witnessing the Brazil election. Just in case here's a recap: 🔘 Polls were scheduled to close at 5pm. Lula requested an extension in areas that were favourable to him citing public transport disruptions. 🔘 Lula made the request to Justice Cristiano Zanin, it was granted at 5:01-5:03pm. Notably: Zanin is Lula's longtime personal lawyer 🔘 The extension only applied to voting machines that were not already shut down. Strangely, the remaining voting machines were largely in 'Lula friendly areas. 🔘It's the first time in Brazilian election history that the candidate that won the first round (Bolsinaro) didn't win the 2nd round of voting. 🔘 If you endorsed Lula you'll say the extension was immaterial, if you endorsed Bolsonaro you will be skeptical that democracy was upheld. Either way, arresting your political opponent right after they challenged you in an election wreaks of authoritarianism. Also when globalists like Soros and Ursula V. heap praise, we should be weary. This is something Canada should distance itself from if we want to uphold the tenets of democracy. #brazil #MarkCarney #Lula #Bolsonaro
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🐷🇨🇦 Our Economic Strategy: Wallow In Mediocrity?? Whatever we do, let’s NOT align our trade relationship with the line at the top. I mean really, who wants all that economic growth? (Sarcasm font) Imagine thinking the best path forward is to align with a slow growth (.8%) dying economy an ocean away. Yet another sign of failure from the ‘master economist’ on display. My elbows are getting tired…. #canada #GDP #recession
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