Senior Hurricane scientist, CSU/ULM alum, tweets weather, El Niño/La Niña, climate, politics-My personal opinions only NOT my employers!
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ALT Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from The Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. The risk of damaging hurricane-force winds is increasing over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U. S. Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
ALT Mensajes clave: 1. Se espera que Isaias se fortalezca y se convierta en un huracán fuerte cuando se acerque a la costa norte del Golfo el viernes. Hay un riesgo creciente de marejada ciclónica que amenaza la vida a lo largo de porciones de la costa norte del Golfo, y una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto desde La Boca del Río Mississippi a Yankeetown, Florida. Los residentes en el área de vigilancia deben seguir los consejos dados por los funcionarios locales y evacuar si se les indica que lo hagan. 2. El riesgo de vientos con fuerza de huracán dañinos está aumentando sobre porciones de Florida Panhandle, el sur de Alabama y el sur de Mississippi. Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Huracán desde Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, a Indian Pass, Florida. Los residentes de estas áreas deben prepararse para la posibilidad de cortes del suministro eléctrico de larga duración.
ALT A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/
ALT The graphic depicts WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook which uses categories on an escalating scale. Starting at Marginal, then Slight, followed by Moderate, and then High. High Risks are issued when severe, widespread flash flooding is expected and can be life-threatening.
ALT This graphic shows two pie charts that show statistics on the percent of total Flood Fatalities (left) and percent of total US flood damages (right).
ALT Tropical Weather Outlook: 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland and drifts northward over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek. Regardless of formation chances, heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
