#Romania - NBR board unanimously decides to keep policy rate unchanged - Board maintains 6.50% rate amid persistent uncertainties and inflationary pressure - Inflation expected to stay above target on energy and food pressures - Liquidity conditions and credit trends remain broadly stable emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Poland - Wage growth speeds up to below-expected 5.9% y/y in Sep, employment falls 0.8% - Wage growth of 5.9% y/y in Sep quickens from 5.6% in Aug, just misses 6.0% consensus - Real wage growth slows to around 1.7% y/y - Employment falls 0.8% y/y, coming in at consensus - Labour market data continue to suggest little threat from wages, which will help MPC hold emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Poland - Industrial production accelerates to 4.6% y/y in Sep, topping 3.1% consensus - Output quickens from revised 4.0% y/y in Aug, comes in well above consensus - In sa terms, output speeds up to 3.3% y/y in Sep from 3.0% in Aug - Output jumps 17.0% m/m, compared with -7.8% in Aug and 15.0% consensus - Industrial output solidifies, pointing to underlying economic strength emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Slovakia - Registered unemployment rate down by 0.02pps m/m to 5.22% at end-September - New unemployment rate indicator - available job seekers of working age in working age population, down by 0.02pps m/m to 4.02%, falls in five of eight regions - Number of newly unemployed people decreases, number of those who found employment increases - Vacancies increase in annual comparison, suggesting persistent skill mismatch - Labour market situation may start to worsen due to end of high seasonal activity, weakening economic activity amid fiscal consolidation, weak foreign demand, US tariffs, wars in Middle East and Ukraine emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Bulgaria - Current account posts EUR 96.0mn deficit in August - CA balance deterioration driven by widening merchandise trade and primary income deficits, contracting net services surplus - 12-month rolling CA deficit reaches 8.0% of projected GDP - Financial account posts EUR 310.7mn inflows in August, predominantly in form of FDIs and other investments emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Slovakia - Current account deficit narrows by 18.9% m/m to EUR 844.8mn in August - Monthly improvement mostly on lower merchandise trade deficit, also lower primary, secondary income deficits, annual increase of 57.3% - on widening deficits on merchandise trade, primary and secondary income accounts - CA deficit narrows by 28.2% y/y to EUR 3.29bn in January-August on much smaller foreign trade deficit, increasing services surplus, narrowing primary and secondary income deficits - 12-month CA deficit represents 3.7% of 4-quarter rolling GDP at end-August - Inflow on financial account in August on back of FDI, portfolio and other investments inflows emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Pakistan - GDP growth eases to 2% y/y in Q4 FY26 - Industry contracts while services growth eases on subdued retail activity - Household consumption remains resilient, but investment and government consumption falter - FY26 growth accelerates to 3.65%; FY27 outlook seen at similar pace emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Morocco - New govt targets 5% growth and budget deficit at 3% of GDP through 2031 - Fiscal discipline to rely on widening tax base, public spending efficiency and higher contribution of state-owned enterprises - Inflation seen at around 2% in next five years - Govt wants to expand direct social assistance, reform pension and health systems - Average annual 5% GDP growth target optimistic in regard to BAM or IMF forecasts emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Argentina - Goods trade surplus reaches USD 3.0bn in Sept as exports soar and imports fall - Exports rise 23.5% y/y, with quantities recovering 6.1% and prices increasing 16.4% - Import quantities decline across all major categories, reinforcing domestic demand concerns - Rolling 12m surplus rises to 3.8% of GDP emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Mozambique - BoM net claims on government rise 7.0% y/y in July - Net claims on govt rise 0.3% m/m to MZN 374.4bn in July, reaching 7.0% above the year-earlier level - Net credit to govt falls 0.7% m/m to MZN 156.1bn but remains more than double the July 2025 level - BoM's direct credit to the economy rises 7.4% y/y to MZN 9.3bn, highlighting the continued dominance of govt exposure on the central bank's balance sheet emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#SouthAfrica - Treasury sells ZAR 16,100mn T-bills amid exceptionally strong demand - Investor demand surges by 54% w/w to ZAR 60,825mn, the strongest since January - Strong demand may partly reflect expectations of fiscal improvement ahead of Wednesday's MTBPS emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Mozambique - Commercial banks' credit to economy slips 0.4% m/m in July - Credit to the economy falls 0.4% m/m to MZN 282.4bn, while annual growth slows to 0.7% - Individuals remain the largest sectoral borrower at MZN 106.2bn, followed by trade at MZN 25.7bn - Manufacturing and trade lending rise y/y, while agriculture, mining, transport and tourism credit contract - Rising govt exposure and high borrowing costs point to subdued credit growth, although a new targeted lending regime could provide some support emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Albania - Foreign trade deficit shrinks by 0.9% y/y to ALL 47.3bn in September - Export growth accelerates to 14.8% y/y, while imports grow by 4.8% y/y - Minerals, fuels and electricity drive export growth, while textiles and footwear remain under pressure - Import growth driven mainly by minerals, fuels and electricity group with 3.2pps contribution emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#SouthAfrica - DA retains majority support in Cape Town despite decline from 2021 - DA polls at 52.6%, down 5.6pps from 2021 but Cape Town remains the only surveyed metro with a single-party majority - Mayor Hill-Lewis attracts 55.4% support, slightly above the DA's party support - Cape Town is the only surveyed metro with a positive balance of assessments of municipal management emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Malaysia - CPI inflation eases slightly to 1.8% y/y in September - Transport prices rise at faster rate, but CPI without fuels moderates - Subdued CPI inflation leaves room for BNM to stay on hold despite buoyant growth emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Kenya: Ruto faces difficult coalition choices ahead of 2027 election * First election without Raila leaves his traditional support base up for grabs * ODM's demands include deputy presidency, potentially unsettling UDA allies * ODM leadership's support for Ruto may not translate into voter backing * Splinter leader Sifuna emerges as a younger contender alongside veteran politicians * Opposition unity remains uncertain amid competing presidential ambitions * Coalition bargaining and political tensions raise risks to policy implementation in the run up to the poll Kenya marks the first anniversary of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's death on 15 October, with the August 2027 general election approaching amid considerable uncertainty over the country's political alliances. Odinga's absence has deprived Kenyan politics of a figure who shaped presidential coalitions and opposition strategies for decades, leaving both President William Ruto and his opponents competing for his political legacy and traditional support base. Ruto is seeking to convert the broad-based government arrangement established with Odinga in 2024 into a formal electoral alliance with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), now led by Odinga's brother Oburu Oginga. Although Oburu has declared support for Ruto's re-election, the parties have yet to conclude a pre-election pact, and negotiations over the distribution of power remain contentious. ODM leaders have demanded a substantial share of positions in the next government, including the deputy presidency, currently held by Kithure Kindiki. Accommodating these demands could alienate Ruto's existing allies and unsettle his United Democratic Alliance (UDA), while refusing them could undermine cooperation with ODM. Moreover, the party's leadership cannot necessarily deliver the electoral support previously commanded by Odinga, particularly given its internal divisions. One of the most notable developments in the opposition is the emergence of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as a potential national contender. The former ODM secretary-general and close ally of Raila has built a following through the splinter Linda Mwananchi movement, presenting himself as an alternative to both Ruto's administration and ODM's pro-government leadership. His appeal, particularly among younger and economically dissatisfied voters, contrasts with an opposition landscape dominated by established politicians with longstanding presidential ambitions, although few recent polls have placed him second in presidential preferences, behind Ruto. Nevertheless, Sifuna faces the challenge of translating his visibility into a nationwide electoral organisation and negotiating with more experienced opposition figures. These include Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, ex super minister Fred Matiang'i, and a few others, whose competing ambitions and regional interests complicate efforts to agree on a common candidate. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who backed Odinga in 2022, also remains an influential figure in opposition coalition-building despite being constitutionally barred from active politics. The political environment is further complicated by the growing use of organised gangs to disrupt opposition gatherings and demonstrations. Human Rights Watch reported in September that attacks on civil society and opposition events had killed at least six people and injured dozens, while researchers have documented incidents involving groups linked to politicians across the political spectrum. Opposition leaders have accused government allies of sponsoring such violence. The incidents raise concerns about the risk of renewed political tensions as campaigning intensifies, particularly given the experience of the youth-led anti-government protests since 2024. We believe the opposition's competing leadership ambitions make a durable unified electoral platform difficult to achieve, although ongoing negotiations could still produce a compromise. At the same time, Ruto's ability to maintain his existing coalition while accommodating ODM's demands remains uncertain. The uncertainty raises questions about the government's capacity to sustain fiscal consolidation and implement politically sensitive reforms during the election period. Beyond the election, the country's substantial debt burden should constrain the scope for a fundamental change in economic policy regardless of the next administration's composition. In the meantime however, coalition bargaining, resistance to further taxation and election-related spending pressures could weaken fiscal discipline. #emergingmarkets

#Morocco - 2027 budget prioritizes purchasing power, youth and regional development - Purchasing power, youth employment, territorial development remain central topics for 2027 - Govt commits to implement structural reform of markets and prices next year - Govt plans MAD 25bn for regional development - Budget deficit projected at 3.0% of GDP this year, below target emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

‼️ Five things that happened in EMs this week: Oct 12 - Oct 16‼️ MSCI said Indonesia no longer merits emerging-market status. Jakarta stocks had their worst day since 1998, while central banks from India to Uganda went to new lengths to defend their currencies. #Indonesia | MSCI threatens a 2-step downgrade MSCI proposed reclassifying Indonesia as a standalone market, skipping frontier and effectively removing its stocks from MSCI indices. It cited suspected coordinated trading and a lack of meaningful enforcement. The Jakarta Composite fell as much as 11%, its biggest drop since January 1998, and the rupiah slid to 18,063 per dollar. A final decision is due by end-June 2027. MSCI also froze index changes for Turkey and warned it could be downgraded if reforms stall. #India | The RBI’s strongest rupee defence since 2013 Last weekend, days after its first hike in nearly 4 years, the RBI opened a special dollar window for state oil companies and imposed a 20% reserve requirement on large FX derivative trades. These are its toughest steps since the 2013 taper tantrum. The rupee jumped 1% on Monday and was back below 95 per dollar by mid-week, about 2% off last week’s lows. #Uganda | 225bp emergency hike The Bank of Uganda raised its policy rate from 9.75% to 12% at an unscheduled meeting on Oct 14, its biggest hike in 15 years. The shilling had hit a record low as the current account deficit widened to $4.6bn. It worked, at least on the day: the shilling jumped as much as 4% and was the world’s best-performing currency. #Nigeria | Inflation at a near 6-year low CPI inflation eased to 14.6% in September from 15.4% in August, the lowest since October 2020. That backs the CBN’s 350bp cut to 23% last month, which the IMF called the “right move”. Food inflation is still close to 19.6%, so the relief for households is limited. #Colombia | BanRep stays hawkish A BanRep co-director signalled rates will stay high for longer, citing El Niño, the Iran war and the fiscal deficit. CPI edged up to 6.29% in September, and analysts saw year-end inflation at 6.8% in BanRep’s September survey. We see the Oct 30 meeting as a close call, with a slight bias toward another 25bp hike to 12.5%. #emergingmarkets

#Peru - Fiscal deficit narrows to 0.9% of GDP in September - The twelve-month fiscal deficit falls to 0.9% of GDP in September from 1.1% in July - Current revenue rises 22.4% y/y, supported by higher income tax, IGV and mining - Non-financial spending increases 3.9% y/y, mainly due to higher current expenditure - High metal prices and strong economic activity should continue supporting fiscal accounts emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Argentina - Fiscal surplus rises to 0.29% of GDP YTD in Sep, govt in line for 2026 balance - Primary surplus rises to 1.21% of GDP YTD - Cumulative surpluses YTD lag slightly compared to 2024 and 2025, govt still in line for zero deficit - Revenues rise 2.4% y/y in September helped by income and export taxes, proceeds from domestic demand-linked sources still decline - Primary spending declines 0.9% y/y in September emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets