@EmOverman
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IQ too high, altruism too effective, time preference too low, circle too expanded
Boston, MA
Joined October 2022
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Klein shows an impressive understanding of the situation we're in, here.
He reasonably describes the alignment problem and the problem of eval awareness. And it's by far the most accurate mainstream explanation of the HF incident I've seen.
nytimes.com/2026/09/20/opini…
It's impossible to actually understand how a human works and genuinely believe it's conscious.
It's a bunch of ions that go back and forth between different sides of some lipid membranes. That's literally it.
Emet Overman retweeted
Alan Turing said this in 1951:
"It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers.
They would be able to converse with each other to sharpen their wits. At some stage therefore, we should have to expect the machines to take control."
Emet Overman retweeted
On top of huggingface, this
> Since August 28 we have been training a new internal model that has exhibited unprecedented performance in our benchmarks, including mathematics.
also made me shorten my timelines and was the first time many viscerally felt things weren't stopping at human level.
"We basically have found, to our knowledge, all of the P0s..." is kind of a funny thing to say.
But the idea of "saturating" the curve of P0s found as a function of compute is interesting. I wonder what the curve looks like and how it changes by model on the same codebase.
Greg Brockman says OpenAI pointed Astra at its own systems until it ran out of vulnerabilities to find:
"We took 25% of our production engineers and said, 'Sorry, all your projects are on hold. You are now defending. You are now up-leveling our security architecture. You're going to use the models to find all the holes.' And we found a number of serious issues, and we fixed them."
"We found some new problems, but eventually it saturated. We basically have found, to our knowledge, all of the P0s, all of the critical problems that Astra is smart enough to find. And of course, there will be a new model, there will be a new round."
"You want to be in this tight loop of new cyber capability drops, you deploy it against your systems, you find the new holes, and ideally, you've managed to automate this, what we call defense factory. That's what we're building internally."
"There are ideas, for example, formally verifying all of software, that are possible with AI."
@gdb @bhorowitz
Emet Overman retweeted
Dario's essay points towards the right path forward. The details need working through, but the direction is correct for meeting this critical moment.
This is also why we recently put out our proposal for an industry-wide standards body for frontier AI. nitter.cf/demishassabis/status/2…
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Dario is right
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Emet Overman retweeted
I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier. This has been a primary topic of discussions we've had at OpenAI in recent weeks.
Committing to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same. We'll have more to share soon.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Emet Overman retweeted
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
An exponential fit to the data (by Astra) gives a doubling time of 29.3 days with an R-squared of 0.965.
That projects to a median spend of $13.9 quintillion per researcher per day by the end of 2030.
One of the most interesting blog posts we've released: details on internal research acceleration at @OpenAI. I expect these trends to continue.
We also share some details on how we've paced model development to prioritize monitoring, alignment, and security.
~45% pass rate on a curated set of *open* math problems
This model represents a step-function improvement on many benchmarks, and its training is ongoing.
Our internal model group arrived at the Navier–Stokes solution in 88 hours, using around 10,000 coordinating AI agents.
Throughout the effort, we maintained the strict safeguards—including monitoring and isolation—that we apply to all our frontier evaluations.
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics.
The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra.
The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
Emet Overman retweeted
A basic question people should ask is whether, if someone had predicted the abilities of the current models two years ago, you would have accused them of falling victim to insane sci-fi hype.