Dad. RGA Investment Advisors. Soundview Equity Partners. GARP investor. Mets, Jets, Isles fan. Compulsive reader. In awe of nature. Co-host @twiii_podcast.
Stamford, CT
Joined December 2008
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Incredible new episode with Doug O'Laughlin of @fabknowledge and @SemiAnalysis_!!
On how the semi industry is leading AI forward, the winners of the AI race, an intriguing investment opp in the newest bottleneck for the industry & the deep recession in the non-AI semi world.
.@ElliotTurn and @mihaljevic welcome Doug O'Laughlin of SemiAnalysis and Fabricated Knowledge. Doug shares insights into semiconductors, how the industry leads AI forward, AI winners, opportunity in an industry bottleneck, and the non-AI semi recession.
podbean.com/eas/pb-m8t6a-17c…
Elliot Turner retweeted
Well now that you’ve brought it up I’m talking about the rest of the mideast’s rejection of the partition in 1948 and subsequent attempt to drive the Jews, who accepted the first TWO STATE SOLUTION (which would leave them with a tiny state), into the sea, and then many years of lying bitches like you trying to turn the victims into the perpetrators just because they were way better and won against five arab armies. And then instead of assimilating into Arab countries, as the Jews driven out of ALL of the mideast by pogroms did into Israel, you and yours chose to keep them in squalor (creating a unique politically driven refugee status) rejecting generous peace plan after generous peace plan forever, as a way to retain power and as an inhumane bargaining chip. You and yours can’t begin to survive a real argument. You just repeat your idiocy and lies, and then support terror to the severe detriment of the people you claim to care about. So, you know, that’s what I’m talking about. What are you talking about?
This Reuters article on Anthropic couldn't possibly be more dishonest.
Elliot Turner retweeted
Investors: how are you using AI in your process? Lucas Miller (UC Berkeley, Latticework 2026 keynote) is running a 1-minute anonymous survey. Two respondents win a $200 prize (a month of Claude Max or ChatGPT Pro). Closes Oct 9.
berkeley.qualtrics.com/jfe/f…
As people contemplate Google's risk & opportunity amidst the rise of Muse, 1 place $GOOG can start improving fast:
Get rid of "okay Google" as the hook & name it something relatable.
Anyone near a Google device fears saying the name Google now. That's bad!
"Ok google" as the call to action is a bad idea and incredibly annoying. I can't believe Google hasn't realized it yet.
Now go build a better Muse, given you already have my whole life in data form.
Thanks for listening @sundarpichai.
Elliot Turner retweeted
Chills 25 years later 🥶
Mike Piazza recalls his iconic home run in the @Mets first game back after the attacks on 9/11.
If you never used "Free Palestine" before 10/7, but did immediately thereafter and ever since, you just might be an anti-semite.
Also note the word "looming" by Macklemore...so there was no genocide before 10/7 but a response that was yet to come is?
Disgusting.
Elliot Turner retweeted
@SouthernValue95 has been sharing some pretty killer analysis/takes on hyperscalers and SW. Not enough of it out there these days. He has inspired me to share some of my own sauce. About bioprocessing, of course.
Investors (understandably) became apathetic waiting for the bioP space to recover. I had the luxury of being a specialist tasked with watching the paint dry for a couple years. During this time, I noticed some developments that are likely to grow into meaningful industry tailwinds over the next 5+ years. Surprisingly, nobody is talking about them. I’ll share the biggest one today.
The TL;DR is that antibody drugs are increasingly being formulated as injectables (subQ) rather than IV. The tailwinds are just beginning to materialize, but subQ could add 1%-3% to bioprocess demand growth over the next 5-10 years. This is happening in real-time - a single drug that added a subQ formulation in 2025 is on track to add 150bps to total industry volume demand in 2027.
Monoclonal antibody drugs (mabs) are 85%+ of bioprocess sales for $DHR $TMO $SRT $DIM $RGEN etc. today. Commercial mab volume demand grows 6%-7% as 90% of the underlying drug sales are from cancer, I&I, cardio, or eye drugs, all of which enjoy secular aging tailwinds, expanding indications, and new drug launches. This + pricing - yield improvement is how one bridges to a floor for bioprocessing consumables growth of ~HSD%. 1/
Note claude saying it's a "blowoff" signature in my little study. ex ante it was calling the action in the bottleneck stocks vs the rest of the market the hallmark of a blowoff top bubble w/ the internal metrics more extreme than in dot com.
Look for $META tweets in 2022, people said the same bc of what $AAPL did with ATT. Not exactly the same, but parallels.
Friendly advice for $ADBE bag holders
When a stock has a 8x P/E you can’t seriously rely on management team outlooks nor the street for EPS guidance
The market is telling you everything you need to know which is your outlook numbers are unreliable at best and we think your capital allocation mix is shit and you are likely a casualty of AI
Easier horses to ride
Draining your mental capital on one losing position for years is absolutely not worth it even if you turn out to be right eventually
What started as high multiplies colliding with a growth slowdown has gone too far on the AI Boogeyman.
People don't like the 1999 comparison bc we don't have enough big caps with triple digit PEs, but IMO this is where it's most on point.
Everything not AI is sold to buy more AI every day the market is open.
So, again, this is just shouting into a void.
But this is the most new lows within the S&P 500 $SPY on a day the index poked above a prior all-time closing high.
Ever.
Like EVER, ever.
This was a great one from Monday
xitter.cf/i/status/2053928596389…
"GS High Beta Momentum Pair is having its biggest 1-d move higher in 5+ yrs today …up 866 bps today (laggards down 2-3%, leaders up 5-6%) ..zooming out, the $QQQ is now up 28% since the 3/30 close with only one day of anything larger than a 57 bps daily pullback along the way"
At any one time about half the stocks outperform the S&P and half underperform, but not now!
xitter.cf/i/status/2055245092433…
Only 24% of S&P 500 members outperforming the index over the past 3 months ... going back to the 1970s, there are only a handful of other periods with lower %s.
@NDR_Research | past performance is no guarantee of future results
