US Political Consulting & Analysis Through a Demographic Lens Join Our Discord Here: https://nitter.cf/t.co/ubIQdHub8x
Joined January 2025
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Check out the articles we released this week!
From @corncobanalysis:
2026 Primaries: electioncord.com/newsletter-…
5 Seats the Dems Should Target: electioncord.com/five-seats-…
From me:
Differences Between 2018 and 2026 Midterms: electioncord.com/the-differe…
We have made an ElectionCord Twitch page! We will likely be streaming at least once a week in the leadup to the election, just to answer everyone's questions, as well as of course, an all night E-Day stream!
LINK: twitch.tv/electioncord
ElectionCord retweeted
If you are someone on the left who finds themselves agreeing with this logic, you have completely lost the plot and/or your brain is fully cooked.
I'm not criticizing Zohran for doing this because I understand he has to deal with a very toxic political reality. Politics is a different game.
But to me launching a "Strategy to Combat Antisemitism" in a time of the Gaza genocide is akin to a "Strategy to Combat Anti-Whiteness" at the height of South African apartheid. That's not even a fair analogy: Israel and its apologists do infinitely more to both fabricate and encourage anti-Semitism.
After the polls today, our polling average has Democrats up 9% in the Generic Ballot, 50%-41%. Here's every House seat that either Harris won, or Trump won by under 11.5% (which would be the shift from 2024-2026). Note that both Maine districts would also count in this sample.
Suffragium: electioncord.com/suffragium/
Generic Ballot Averages: electioncord.com/generic-bal…
The main reason? 81% of Democrats say they will definitely vote, while 71% of Republicans say the same thing. I also imagine the independents are split like this. For what it's worth though, I would have included definitely and probably will vote in an LV screen.
One thing that's pretty interesting about the new YouGov/Economist poll is the split between Registered Voters and Likely Voters for Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot.
Approval: RV: -26, LV: -25
Generic Ballot: RV: D+8, LV: D+15
LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.ne…
One thing that's pretty interesting about the new YouGov/Economist poll is the split between Registered Voters and Likely Voters for Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot.
Approval: RV: -26, LV: -25
Generic Ballot: RV: D+8, LV: D+15
LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.ne…
ElectionCord retweeted
CRYSTAL BALL: As the environment remains tough for Republicans, 11 House races shift to Dems. Notably, the 3 competitive R-held seats in VA each shift a column leftward.
In NE & VT, Govs. Pillen (R) & Scott (R) both go from Safe R to Likely R.
centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
ElectionCord retweeted
While I am not trying to compare Cook and Crystal Ball, I was curious if Crystal Ball's practice of pushing toss-ups made them more accurate... and it did!
While Crystal Ball did get a lot more picks incorrect, they did also made more correct picks, and thus got a higher score.
Here is the closest election in recent memory to a result that looks similar to this: Ohio 2018 Senate, involving Sherrod Brown, in a wave year for Democrats. He ended up winning by about 7%, given I think the coalitions are likely going to be different.
While he will likely do better in the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland, particularly in controversial Republican incumbent Max Miller's district (OH-7), I cannot imagine him doing this well in Appalachia.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
Quality Ohio Senate Polls Since 8/1:
Marist (9/24-27): D+8
Quantus (9/21-23): D+1
YouGov (9/1-10): D+3
Fox News (8/6-10): D+8
While I am not trying to compare Cook and Crystal Ball, I was curious if Crystal Ball's practice of pushing toss-ups made them more accurate... and it did!
While Crystal Ball did get a lot more picks incorrect, they did also made more correct picks, and thus got a higher score.
If you want the most up-to-date information on the election, join our Discord! It's one of the biggest election Discords, with dozens of active members.
LINK: discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
Five counties I'm going to be watching on Election Day in Texas:
1. Williamson County- Suburban county in Talarico's home metro of Austin, needs to win this Trump +2 county
2 & 3: Collin and Denton Counties- Suburban counties in Dallas Trump won by double digits. Talarico has to get close.
4. Hidalgo County- Largest county in the Rio Grande Valley, has shifted right close to 50% right since 2016, can Talarico get at least Biden 2020 margins?
5. Travis County- Austin, Talarico will win it by a lot, no doubt. But he needs truly fantastic turnout here.
Thoughts?
Here's just one example of this: On YouGov's recent poll, 81% of Democrats said they definitely will vote, versus 70% of Republicans. I would also be interested to see the Independent numbers divided into Leans D and Leans R, and if there's a big gap or not
Republicans don't really have a Trump -> Dem problem (at least not substantially), but they do seem to have a Trump -> Not Voting problem, particularly among those who weren't strong supporters of Trump in 2024. Conversely, they may also have a Not Voting -> Dem problem.
These are all of the 100K Districts that shifted right by at least 10% to Trump from 2020-2024.
Most of these were minority areas that Dems won, like NYC, CA, TX, and FL. Ironically? these are the areas we expect to shift back to Dems the most.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
