@ElNachoCryptoi
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Variational arc 'the next trade is all that matters'
Joined May 2021
- Tweets9.5K
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Nacho retweeted
my thoughts on a few likely @variational_io questions:
what price will $var trade at at tge?
honestly, i have no idea. the general consensus atm is between $1-2b fdv. the herd is usually wrong, so it will probably be closer to the extremes of this range, but as i explain below, it's a pretty pointless game to play atm
here's why i don't take any projections that seriously. there's simply too much incomplete information:
-we need to see the post points dip in activity to assess how sticky variational is
-we don't know what impact the api will have
-we don't know the impact and/or significance of the forthcoming partnerships
-we don't know what else is in store. the team is clearly holding back some really juicy info which we're not able to factor in. so why bother?
i also think many of the valuations i've seen have some very flawed comparisons/assumptions
to summarise, we're entering a critical period of development and growth for the platform, with all key metrics reaching new milestones, more swaps coming online and pro on the horizon
we have lots of reasons to be optimistic. rewarding real users is foundational to this extremely capable team. to all those spending a lot of time and energy speculating about tge, i would relax. time will reveal all, and the picture is still largely out of focus for now
----------------------------------------------
thoughts on the delay to tge?
now that the dust has settled on the latest update, i completely understand the frustration here. the goal posts have been moved in a way that nobody likes. the points program was scheduled to end no later than q3, and yet here we are
this move will benefit some and not others. those wanting more exposure (or new to the platform) have been given a gift, despite it being harder to get points now. those who were early or happy with their exposure stand to get diluted and have to wait much longer for their $var tokens (we have to balance this with the very large 32% allocation, fully unlocked at tge)
on a personal level, i wish it hadn't been pushed back. in the end, i think we will look back on this as frustrating at the time, but ultimately the right decision. markets and life generally reward patience. the rest of the details (relating to tge) are very positive or at least in line with expectations
it's been nearly two years since I started tracking variational. i was first introduced to the project in dec '24. i've come to trust the team and their decisions, so i expect that the extra wait is strategically sound and will add to the fdv at launch and beyond
based on the messaging in the latest bankless podcast, i anticipate there being at least a couple more months ahead of us (i hope to be wrong here):
'We had planned to end points at the end of Q3 and launch the token imminently after. But because of reasons that’ll be very clear over the next couple months, we’re extending the points program through Q4. . .And so that’ll happen at some point in Q4. . .But it’s still very much coming in the near term and points we’ve extended essentially just to cover that interval period between now and TGE.'
----------------------------------------------
why do i have so much conviction in @variational_io?
it's the people. the human beings who are giving life to the ideas. 'bet on the jockey, not the horse' is a concept i really buy into
i know that @variational_io is innovative. i know that swaps are a superior product to perps. i know that pro taps into trillion dollar otc markets. i know that onchain derivatives and the growth of rwas is a fantastic horse to bet on
but none of this matters if the people at the helm cannot consistently deliver. having done extensive research over many months, lucas, ed and the rest of the team are simply ppl i am prepared to bet on
and betting big is exactly what i'm doing
----------------------------------------------
if you enjoyed this, lmk and i'll fire out a few more
bottom line, much to be positive about. in all likelihood, we're probably not bullish enough
and if you wanted more time to stack points, congrats
gvar
love it, gg @JustinCBram
would love to see more updates like this going forward
my thoughts on a few likely @variational_io questions:
what price will $var trade at at tge?
honestly, i have no idea. the general consensus atm is between $1-2b fdv. the herd is usually wrong, so it will probably be closer to the extremes of this range, but as i explain below, it's a pretty pointless game to play atm
here's why i don't take any projections that seriously. there's simply too much incomplete information:
-we need to see the post points dip in activity to assess how sticky variational is
-we don't know what impact the api will have
-we don't know the impact and/or significance of the forthcoming partnerships
-we don't know what else is in store. the team is clearly holding back some really juicy info which we're not able to factor in. so why bother?
i also think many of the valuations i've seen have some very flawed comparisons/assumptions
to summarise, we're entering a critical period of development and growth for the platform, with all key metrics reaching new milestones, more swaps coming online and pro on the horizon
we have lots of reasons to be optimistic. rewarding real users is foundational to this extremely capable team. to all those spending a lot of time and energy speculating about tge, i would relax. time will reveal all, and the picture is still largely out of focus for now
----------------------------------------------
thoughts on the delay to tge?
now that the dust has settled on the latest update, i completely understand the frustration here. the goal posts have been moved in a way that nobody likes. the points program was scheduled to end no later than q3, and yet here we are
this move will benefit some and not others. those wanting more exposure (or new to the platform) have been given a gift, despite it being harder to get points now. those who were early or happy with their exposure stand to get diluted and have to wait much longer for their $var tokens (we have to balance this with the very large 32% allocation, fully unlocked at tge)
on a personal level, i wish it hadn't been pushed back. in the end, i think we will look back on this as frustrating at the time, but ultimately the right decision. markets and life generally reward patience. the rest of the details (relating to tge) are very positive or at least in line with expectations
it's been nearly two years since I started tracking variational. i was first introduced to the project in dec '24. i've come to trust the team and their decisions, so i expect that the extra wait is strategically sound and will add to the fdv at launch and beyond
based on the messaging in the latest bankless podcast, i anticipate there being at least a couple more months ahead of us (i hope to be wrong here):
'We had planned to end points at the end of Q3 and launch the token imminently after. But because of reasons that’ll be very clear over the next couple months, we’re extending the points program through Q4. . .And so that’ll happen at some point in Q4. . .But it’s still very much coming in the near term and points we’ve extended essentially just to cover that interval period between now and TGE.'
----------------------------------------------
why do i have so much conviction in @variational_io?
it's the people. the human beings who are giving life to the ideas. 'bet on the jockey, not the horse' is a concept i really buy into
i know that @variational_io is innovative. i know that swaps are a superior product to perps. i know that pro taps into trillion dollar otc markets. i know that onchain derivatives and the growth of rwas is a fantastic horse to bet on
but none of this matters if the people at the helm cannot consistently deliver. having done extensive research over many months, lucas, ed and the rest of the team are simply ppl i am prepared to bet on
and betting big is exactly what i'm doing
----------------------------------------------
if you enjoyed this, lmk and i'll fire out a few more
bottom line, much to be positive about. in all likelihood, we're probably not bullish enough
and if you wanted more time to stack points, congrats
gvar
to learn more about @variational_io, check out my pinned post
if you're an active trader, head to: omni.variational.io/trader-r…
you may be due a reward for signing up
my ref 'OMNINACHO' gives you an 18% points boost, the best this space can offer
Nacho retweeted
NEW EPISODE - Is @variational_io the Next Hyperliquid?
Variational isn’t trying to be another perp exchange. Lucas Schuermann (@variational_lvs) & @JustinCBram break down its broker model, how it taps into TradFi liquidity, why swaps could be a better retail primitive for RWAs, and the vision for accessing thousands of global markets from one USDC balance.
Plus: the 32% VAR airdrop, mobile, and the push to bring the next wave of traders onchain.
CHAPTERS
---
0:00 Broker, Not Exchange
5:07 Why Brokerage Wins for Retail
8:22 What Is a Swap?
9:58 The Real Cost of Trading
11:43 Bringing TradFi Liquidity Onchain
14:44 Building Variational
23:14 From Crypto Traders to Everyone
26:42 The Next User Base
30:35 What Actually Happens Onchain?
34:00 Inside OLP
37:03 Arbitrum and User Funds
39:44 The VAR Token and 32% Airdrop
42:34 Funding the Token Model
44:11 The 2027 Roadmap
47:44 Protocol or Platform?
This video is larger than Cloudflare's 512 MB cache, so it can't be played through. More donations are needed to cover a larger cache. Donate
Nacho retweeted
if your size is size, swaps on @variational_io offer you
superior liquidity/execution vs comparable rwas
it's not up for debate, the data backs this up
$1.2b volume on us100 alone today. imagine what happens when there are 100 swaps, all trading 24/7
this is how @variational_io wins:
-by bringing tradfi liquidity onchain
-with a truly differentiated product, and real pmf
billions must swap
Nacho retweeted
'The RWA TAM. . .is absolutely f****** enormous.'
'That's the much bigger market that tells you this trade has a lot farther to go'
@hosseeb talking about hyperliquid, lighter & @variational_io on @therollupco
if your size is size, swaps on @variational_io offer you
superior liquidity/execution vs comparable rwas
it's not up for debate, the data backs this up
$1.2b volume on us100 alone today. imagine what happens when there are 100 swaps, all trading 24/7
this is how @variational_io wins:
-by bringing tradfi liquidity onchain
-with a truly differentiated product, and real pmf
billions must swap
to learn more about swaps and @variational_io, see my pinned post
use my ref to get an 18% points boost (the best on offer):
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
'The RWA TAM. . .is absolutely f****** enormous.'
'That's the much bigger market that tells you this trade has a lot farther to go'
@hosseeb talking about hyperliquid, lighter & @variational_io on @therollupco
Nacho retweeted
100s of hours of research
numerous posts, articles and spaces w/team
top 100 rank
i have total confidence when i say, you are not bullish enough on @variational_io
sharing good new things adds real value to the space. rooting for all those that took action
incredibly exciting times ahead
gvar
Nacho retweeted
if you're an active trader, head to: omni.variational.io/trader-r…
you may be due a reward for signing up
nb: my ref 'OMNINACHO' gives you an 18% points boost, the best this space can offer
100s of hours of research
numerous posts, articles and spaces w/team
top 100 rank
i have total confidence when i say, you are not bullish enough on @variational_io
sharing good new things adds real value to the space. rooting for all those that took action
incredibly exciting times ahead
gvar
if you're an active trader, head to: omni.variational.io/trader-r…
you may be due a reward for signing up
nb: my ref 'OMNINACHO' gives you an 18% points boost, the best this space can offer
Nacho retweeted
if you're sidelined, coping, or still on the fence about
@variational_io
do 2 things:
-watch the video below
-check out my intro article (pinned)
i promise you, it will open your eyes
the points program extension is a gift for those still without enough exposure - use it
it will only get harder once the api goes live
gvar
if you're sidelined, coping, or still on the fence about
@variational_io
do 2 things:
-watch the video below
-check out my intro article (pinned)
i promise you, it will open your eyes
the points program extension is a gift for those still without enough exposure - use it
it will only get harder once the api goes live
gvar
if you're an active trader, head to: omni.variational.io/trader-r…
you may be due a reward for signing up
nb: my ref 'OMNINACHO' gives you an 18% points boost, the best this space can offer
Nacho retweeted
all conjectures about future valuations are worthless to me
because they are blind to what's coming
if this week has taught us anything, it's to raise your expectations
'dream bigger'
32% of $VAR will be airdropped to traders, fully unlocked. Following Hyperliquid’s success, we want to do right by our community.
That’s why we’ve planned one of the biggest airdrops ever.
There’s a lot we haven’t shared yet. time to dream bigger