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This week I had the pleasure of being joined by @DavidDeutschOxf to explore the intricacies of creativity, the self, the mind, and of course, the Fun Criterion.
youtu.be/e7CrXqUcqzs
Edwin retweeted
🛡️Defend the West Conference🛡️
WHEN: 1/13/2027
WHERE: Online
Over 300 people have registered so far.
Speakers include:
@DavidM_Friedman
@sapinker
@SRCHicks
@yaronbrook
@alananewhouse
@johanknorberg
@DeirdreMcClosk
@michaelshermer
@ToKTeacher
@jasoncrawford
Nadine Strossen
Save your spot (link below)
2026 was such a blast, we’re running it back!
After an amazing launch in 2026, Conjecture Con returns to Oxford for a weekend of ideas, conversation and optimism, now at Wolfson College
📅 10–11 July 2027
🎟️ 150 seats: conjecturecon.com/events/con…
"People aren't ready, this is gonna change everything"
You know what people weren't ready for? Fucking mammoths. Tigers eating them. Monkeys ripping their arms off. The black plague. The ice age. Smallpox. Vikings pulling up on the beach. Drinking water that gives you diarrhea until you die. Getting a scratch and losing your whole leg. The Mongols. The Spanish Inquisition.
One volcano can send us back to the dark ages and these safety guys are gonna be shocked. Oh the robots didn't kill us? It was a volcano? Imagine their disappointment as the hot ash rains down on them.
A solar flare is gonna explode your phone in your pocket your legs are gonna be covered in battery acid and your bank account will stop working. You're afraid of a computer program doing math?
"Things are moving too fast" homie you live on a rock that periodically deletes everything. You are one the most luckiest entities in a 100 light year radius living during a golden era. Cheer up.
My ancestors crossed an ocean in a wooden box because they ran out of fucking potatoes.
"The social disruption will be enormous!"
Nigga World War 2? World War 2? Hop in the people carrier we're landing on the beach.
Are these people out of their fucking minds? Do they not know what we've survived already?
A couple decades of air conditioning and people suddenly think oh this is the natural condition of mankind. No. We used to have eight kids because seven didn't make it. You're gonna be fine. Man the fuck up.
Accelerate.
Edwin retweeted
Thanks, Peter! This is the beginning of the end for destructive wildfires. In a country that loses ~$500B every year to wildfires, even tiny gains make for huge savings, to say nothing of the incalculable value of lives and homes.
Congrats to @PalmerLuckey and Anduril for winning the Wildfire XPRIZE - for detecting and suppressing a wildfire within 10 minutes of ignition!
A surge of progress from just the past few years
“We conquer problems by creating knowledge, or they conquer us. … stasis is not available.” —@DavidDeutschOxf
Edwin retweeted
Pointed at other people's systems: "scary hacker"
Pointed at own systems: "noble cybersecurity patcher"
Entirely unserious dialogue.
Greg Brockman says OpenAI pointed Astra at its own systems until it ran out of vulnerabilities to find:
"We took 25% of our production engineers and said, 'Sorry, all your projects are on hold. You are now defending. You are now up-leveling our security architecture. You're going to use the models to find all the holes.' And we found a number of serious issues, and we fixed them."
"We found some new problems, but eventually it saturated. We basically have found, to our knowledge, all of the P0s, all of the critical problems that Astra is smart enough to find. And of course, there will be a new model, there will be a new round."
"You want to be in this tight loop of new cyber capability drops, you deploy it against your systems, you find the new holes, and ideally, you've managed to automate this, what we call defense factory. That's what we're building internally."
"There are ideas, for example, formally verifying all of software, that are possible with AI."
@gdb @bhorowitz
Edwin retweeted
I wrote about Human Computer Interface
“Hmm, sure” is now be a valid instruction to a computer. That is mind blowing.
From Charles Babbage’s Analytical Engine, which looked like factory machinery, to AI that can interpret what we "mean". A leap from syntax to semantics.
Hope you enjoy reading it.
prashanthshankar.com/writing…
Edwin retweeted
Despite the recent progress in AI for mathematics, I don't think AI will replace the role of mathematicians.
Instead, it makes mathematics closer to the natural sciences.
In the natural sciences, we invent theories, comprehensible models, that explain empirical observations.
When an AI answers a mathematical question, it provides humans with an effectively empirical observation about the answer. It is effectively empirical because the answer is a measurement from a system outside of immediate human theoretical understanding. This answer, as with any new glimpse of reality, remains mysterious until humans make sense of its underlying structure and provide an explanation of it in our own frameworks for understanding the world.
An AI proof is stronger than simply an empirical observation, but it may be so complex that it provides little deep or novel insight beyond establishing the answer. The role of human mathematics is then to distill these effectively empirical findings into human-legible explanations. Seen this way, much of human mathematics may begin to look like a branch of interpretability, and AI, a new kind of telescope.
Edwin retweeted
"Stoicism developed among people living close to power and abundance because power and abundance exposed problems scarcity had concealed. The philosophy of an emperor becomes more relevant when ordinary people begin living...like emperors." humanprogress.org/first-worl…
Edwin retweeted
Conjecture Institute's next online conference
Defend the West
January 13th, 2027
Below are confirmed speakers as of today.
More to come.
1. Yaron Brook @yaronbrook
2. Steven Pinker @sapinker
3. Stephen Hicks @SRCHicks
4. David Friedman
5. Alana Newhouse @alananewhouse
6. Johan Norberg @johanknorberg
7. Michael Shermer @michaelshermer
Want a good answer online? Ask a clear, thoughtful question.
Actually, no. Say something wrong and people will rush to correct you.
I came across a great explanation for this in The Rest Is Science, and it has some interesting implications for how we form and spread ideas. The gist:
Our minds are more drawn to narrow errors than to large, open-ended problems. A clear error is easier to engage with. You do not have to construct the whole problem, its possible solutions, and the criteria for choosing between them. You only have to point at what is wrong.
It also feels more urgent. Something has already gone wrong, or is about to, so it demands attention.
This means narrow errors can also be used strategically:
- To get an answer from someone who would not otherwise bother. Do not ask which wrench you need. Say you plan to use a hammer. People will rush to stop you and explain the right method.
- To help someone explain a concept they struggle to articulate. Give them a clear but slightly wrong example. It is often easier to explain why something is wrong than to start from a blank page.
- To distract from larger errors or stop people from looking further.
Popper was right: all life is problem-solving. We must have many mechanisms like this that guide our attention towards some problems over others. A fun direction to explore in the persuit of AGI!
Cleaned-up transcript and video link below.
Michael: A listener asks why people give detailed corrections when someone posts something wrong, but give weaker answers when someone asks a sincere question.
The question proves its own point. A false claim immediately attracts attention. On the internet, the fastest way to get help can be to propose the wrong solution. Do not ask which wrench you need; say that you plan to use a hammer. People will rush to stop you and explain the correct method.
This reflects the difference between helping and fixing. An open question requires a person to define the problem, consider many possibilities, and decide what information is useful. A wrong answer provides one clear target. As Michael puts it: “If someone’s wrong, they’re specifically wrong.”
Hannah: Curiosity works best when the missing information has a clear shape. It is like a missing tooth: you know that something belongs in the gap, and you know roughly what it should look like. That defined gap captures attention.
Michael: A visible error creates the same feeling. You know what belongs there, so you want to fill the gap.
It also feels urgent. An unanswered question can wait because somebody else may answer it. This creates social loafing: everyone assumes another person will help. Wrong information can spread and cause damage, so people feel that they must intervene.
Correction is also easier and more self-serving. The error creates discomfort or annoyance, and correcting it removes that feeling. Humans make fast judgments: good or bad, safe or unsafe, approach or retreat.
Real help is harder. You must listen, reason, understand what the other person already knows, and enter their perspective. Correction is instinctive. Open-ended help is a commitment.
Hannah: She uses this effect when she interviews scientists for television. Experts often know their field very well but struggle to explain it to a general audience.
She gives them a simple explanation that would work for the audience, but she deliberately makes one small part wrong. The scientist immediately corrects her. In doing so, they repeat the clear explanation, repair the small error, and often add one useful detail. That corrected answer is usually the best part of the interview.
Michael: The method works because a specific error gives the expert something concrete to resist. Asking, “What are you researching?” is too open. Giving an incorrect explanation creates a handle.
Experts also forget how little a general audience knows. They may assume that basic specialist knowledge is common knowledge. It is difficult for them to move from ten years of detailed research back to a simple starting point.
Hannah: She remembers a similar practice from naval inspections. A crew would supposedly leave one obvious rope or detail slightly wrong. Inspectors expect to find a problem. When they find the prepared fault, they can correct it and feel that they completed their job.
Edwin retweeted
Conjecture Institute is thrilled to welcome our newest Fellow, @Aarco_K_!
Aarco is a documentarian and writer.
He is working on a documentary about “Washing” (derived from whitewashing): the act of covering up errors to meet external norms.
He aims to explain why this happens—whether in markets, politics, scientific institutions, or everyday life—and how it is a problem that causes knowledge to grow sideways rather than through genuine error-correction.
The English version of Aarco's documentary will be a part of Conjecture Studios.
Meanwhile, watch the first two episodes of his documentary (with English subtitles), link below👇
Edwin retweeted
My life is a near constant state of mild annoyance, discomfort, foiled expectations, and boredom, and yet I’ve never been happier.
I’ve transitioned to stay-at-home dad to five kids aged 2-8 and, on a moment to moment basis, it’s rarely fun.
It’s almost never the case that all five are in a good mood, that nobody is asking me for something, nobody is disappointed or outright upset. The plans I make for the day rarely work out, and almost never work out for everyone.
I make blatant mistakes all the time - I forgot the diapers, I left the crocs somewhere, the kids were too hungry and started fighting at the science museum, the water was too cold, etc etc.
And I rarely get a chance to have an extended conversation with an adult, to read/listen to a good book, or to write out my thoughts on X (posting has fallen off dramatically this summer.)
But, I’ve never been “happier.” This is easily the greatest period of my life, and I’m not sugarcoating it just to pretend that I’m a devoted husband/father. I also reject the “no pain, no gain” ethos that says that hard things are inherently satisfying, or that satisfaction can only come from struggle. (I absolutely cannot stand the common practice of rationalizing an unpleasant existence instead of improving it.)
How can this be, that I’m both happy and unhappy at the same time? It’s because the word happy has several uses, and this has caused a lot of confusion. A simple clarifying distinction is between happiness as feeling good, and happiness as satisfaction.
Writing this strikes me as so obvious that I’m tempted not to post it, but the confusion runs quite deep.
I started following the happiness research in 2006 when I read Jonathan Haidt’s Happiness Hypothesis and then Daniel Gilbert’s Stumbling on Happiness and Csikszentmihalyi’s Flow and Barry Schwartz’s The Paradox of Choice, and their arguments were based on these experiments where they’d measure happiness with surveys, with asking people how happy they were in various circumstances. They called this science because they did all this scientific stuff around these surveys and published it as the psychology of positive emotions, of happiness.
I lapped it up because it made so much sense. Before these guys, psychologists only studied pathology, depression, insanity, addiction, stuff like that. What about happiness?
These guys did acknowledge, almost in passing, that what someone says about their state of mind (a survey response) is not actually their state of mind, but they said that if they simply collect enough responses and average them together, then the result would actually reflect their state, at least to some statistical probability. And after all, is there a better way to get at someone’s state of mind other than just asking them?
I remember sitting on the floor and watching them sweep this ugly little fact under the rug and calling it good myself. Heck, this stuff was published psychology, and to my 2006 self, that was good enough for me, especially when the stuff they wrote in their books and said in their TESTalks made so much damned sense. But I never forgot that rug sweeping definitely happened.
Fast forward to 2018 and it all crashed down with a paragraph in my favorite book, The Beginning of Infinity. Throughout the book, @DavidDeutschOxf is at pains (quite happily, I bet) to make the case that we don’t understand stuff that we can’t explain, and if we can’t explain it, then we can't make meaningful predictions. We certainly can make predictions, they're just not meaningful. Take astrologers, they make lots of predictions, but since astrology lacks an explanation of HOW star positions affect human affairs, astrology can only succeed by getting its patrons to ignore this lack of understanding, usually by misdirecting their attention on mumbo jumbo like mystical vagaries and credulous testimonials. In other words, charlatans use various methods to sweep their lack of an explanation under the rug, and science (and knowledge creation in general) is about pulling things OUT from under the rug! (Deutsch references conjuring tricks multiple times throughout the book.)
In Chp 12 A Physicist’s History of Bad Philosophy he addresses happiness research head on. He notes that we don’t have an explanatory theory of what happiness is, so, like astrology, predictions about happiness are bullshit. Instead, happiness research is full of supposedly happy behaviors, like checking boxes on surveys that say “I am happy." But we don't have an explanatory connection between those checkmarks, those behaviors, and the actual state of someone's mind, just like astrologers don't have an explanatory connection between the location of stars and their patron's romantic prospects.
Deutsch notes that, not only do we have no way of measuring happiness (measuring happiness without understanding it is like measuring temperature without a theory of thermodynamics), we know that "some people believe that behaving in 'happy' ways is a remedy for unhappiness, so, for those people, such behaviors might be a proxy for unhappiness." I never heard the happiness researchers account for that inconvenient little tidbit.
The point I've been driving at so far is that we shouldn't put much stock in conventional ideas about happiness, including that it's a goal we should even strive for, because we don't understand it. What is the alternative?
I think the alternative is rearranging the order. Instead of seeking the feeling or state of being, we should seek something meaningful, "satisfying," important, and let the feeling state derive from that. As @Supreme_Owl_FTW says, we need to avoid putting the cart (feeling) before the horse (meaning). For a longer treatment on this, I enjoyed Raymond Angelo Belliotti's Happiness is Overrated. In it he points out what I am currently experiencing, having a good life raising five kids with a loving wife even though my day-to-day is rarely happy. (It has its moments, don't get me wrong, but they are... infrequent.)
Wrapping up with some basic points:
I think it's a bad idea to constantly assess how we're feeling.
I think it's a bad idea to ignore feeling bad. Feeling bad is always a signal that something can be improved. Problems are solvable.
Also a bad idea to ignore feeling good, feeling good is great and amplifying the causes of good feels is great, all things considered of course.
All things considered means amplifying feeling good (and alleviating feeling bad) often comes at a cost, and the costs may not be worth it. Ignoring the costs of optimizing how you feel is a good way to feel bad.
Often I don't have the energy to solve a problem and I just endure it. It's easier to endure discomfort when I'm not pressuring myself to optimize my life.
I often reevaluate my overall goals, how things are going with the kids, how they are doing/growing, how me and my wife are doing etc. This helps to avoid complacency and bullshitting myself, such as telling myself that, since I'm doing something wholesome like taking care of the kids, everything is fine.
What is meaningful and important is very, very specific to each person. Beware off-the-shelf sources of meaning as they are almost always too blunt to fit one's specific life. And worse, they are loaded with social approval and other anti-rational reasons to adopt them.
Finding meaning requires constructing meaning. Something that matters to you has to be deeply understood by you. It has to be deeply interesting. And the way to arrive there very likely involved allowing your creativity to engage with it at some length and with few restrictions.
The unknowability of the future
Unknowability arises from human creativity: we cannot know what new knowledge future humans will create. This is self-evident, because if we could know that knowledge in advance, we would already possess it. And since we cannot know what problems people will come to understand and solve, we also cannot know what new ideas they will base their choices on.
Even setting new knowledge aside, human beings can act on their own judgements. They are not bound to follow any predicted path. For these reasons, the growth of human knowledge and the choices people make are not merely difficult to predict; in important respects, they are fundamentally unknowable.
The faster human knowledge grows—as it has since the Enlightenment—the more this unknowability matters. In practical terms, the farther our coarse-grained predictions extend into the future, the less reliable they tend to become. You may be able to predict with reasonable confidence what a colleague will do next week, because much of the relevant context is already known. Predicting what they will do two months from now is much harder: by then, their actions will depend on problems, decisions, discoveries, and events that have not yet occurred and cannot yet be known.
In a society shaped by rational rather than anti-rational norms, long-range plans are therefore especially fragile. The appropriate response is not to try harder to predict the future—or worse, to resist change—but to participate actively in the developments that shape it: adapt to new knowledge, respond to it intelligently and quickly, and make use of the opportunities it creates.
Unknowability may sound like unpredictability caused by quantum indeterminacy and random deviations, but in an important sense it is the opposite. New human knowledge often makes the world less random and more predictable. By solving problems, we come to understand previously unknown regularities and gain greater control over what happens. The durability of a bridge, for example, was far harder to predict before the development of Newtonian physics and the engineering knowledge built upon it. Today, that knowledge allows us to design bridges whose behaviour can be predicted with extraordinary precision.
Knowledge creation is therefore not a random process in the relevant sense. It is a focused and intentional attempt to solve problems. The unknowability of the human future comes not from mere randomness, but from the future creation of knowledge, choices, and novelties that do not yet exist and therefore cannot yet be known.




















