I debate @JasonFurman—Pres. Obama’s Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors—at Harvard over the effect of tax increases on the expected value of innovative risk-taking and the magnitude of changes needed to equilibrate America’s fiscal policy. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Africa’s urban population has grown from 33 million in 1950 to 670 million today. Its growth may now exceed even China’s post-Deng urban boom: ~15 million added annually in recent years, versus ~14 million in China in the 1990s. The UN projects ~19 million a year by 2050. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Illegal border crossing fell to under 100,000 as measured by apprehensions - their lowest level since 1968. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

France is caught between voters demanding more spending and bond markets demanding less. After a brief respite in French bond yields relative to German bunds, renewed protests threaten to undermine confidence not only in French debt, but in the euro itself. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

At 59.7% of total government spending, France's social safety net is crowding out core state functions such as education, defense and public order, whose collective share of spending fell from 15.2% to 13.7% of the total btw 1995 and 2024. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

A FRBNY analysis finds that AI investment has risen sharply since 2023, but aggregate investment has not. This is consistent with AI crowding out other investment, but equally compatible with non-AI weakness helping to make room for AI. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Chinese government audits found that local authorities inflated school enrollment to obtain subsidies. Electronic registration later revealed further discrepancies, raising questions about official birth estimates partly based on enrollment figures. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

The EU is in talks with China to remove trade restrictions on an unnamed Chinese firm, which is aiding the Russian war effort in exchange for China lifting restriction on rare earths sales to Sindlhauser Materials GmbH, a small firm in ASML’s supply chain. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

The 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 5.08% before rising to 5.13% as investors rotated to government debt, likely due to "AI jitters." edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Firms have raised $163B in US IPOs so far this year. Anthropic’s upcoming IPO would push American IPOs proceeds to a record. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Nonfarm business output per hour grew 2.2% annually between 2019 and 2025, up from 1% in 2010–19. Among public firms, growth in real revenue per worker accelerated from 0.7% to 2.2%. Operating margins rose from 16% to 18% of sales (2.4% annual growth). edwardconard.com/macro-round…

A jump in Canadian holding of Treasuries and agency debt suggests China is using a Canadian custodian for some of its dollar holdings. “China has been much better at hiding its dollars than it’s been about getting out of the dollar," noted Brad Setser. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Real median pre-tax, post-transfer family income rose 7% to $82,000 btw 2021 and 2024 and real mean family income fell 6% to $145,200 over the period. Since 2018 median income has risen 11% and mean income has risen 8%. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

CDS prices on CoreWeave debt imply more than a 60% chance of default within the next five years. The firm's debt is selling off, with 9% notes maturing in 2031 trading as low as 79.9 cents on the dollar, a level considered distressed, before rising to 82.75. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Azhar and Gildea put AI infrastructure’s 2030 revenue hurdle at $910B, versus $2.9T from Van Nieuwerburgh and $2.4T in Bernstein–Cummings’ middle case. Using Azhar–Gildea’s capex, asset-life and operating-cost estimates, the three models yield converge to $890B–$1.1T. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Goldman estimates, based on average annual capex in 2026–27, that hyperscalers need $308B in annual AI revenues over the next few years to break even, and $417–526B for a 10–20% return on capital. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Inflation accelerated in September, rising to 3.7% annualized from August’s 3.4%. Real average hourly earnings fell .7% year over year. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

A study of 100k+ private nonfinancial firms (2012–23), including 433 IPOs, suggests listing improves access to debt as well as equity. After listing, lenders’ risk assessments converge and bank borrowing costs fall 45 basis points, controlling for assessed risk. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

A Revelio Labs analysis finds global call center employment is now 5.3% under its December 2023 peak. Call center employment started diverging from other white collar work in middle income countries around November 2022, when ChatGPT was released. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

Slok flags a survey of 396 enterprises that found AI adaptation hasn’t improved gross margins in aggregate, with 81% of firms noting a “moderate-to-high gross margin impact” from their AI spending, while 63% saw a 6 to 15pp decrease. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

China’s goods trade surplus is on track to exceed 2025’s $1.2T. China’s trade surplus with the EU is up 21% y/y. edwardconard.com/macro-round…