Jim Osman retweeted
The S&P 500 is near record highs.
So why does your portfolio feel like a bear market?
Small caps are weak. Banks and homebuilders have been hit. A handful of megacaps are doing an enormous amount of the work.
This week, CPI and bond yields could decide whether that changes.
My latest for @Barchart: barchart.com/story/news/6065…
Excellent article by @EdgeCGroup . Read the whole article but I pasted some paragraphs that explain why things can go down and then what to do about it to win. Quality likely starts to become a leading Factor for gains, in my opinion. $ROE is interesting as Quality and Equal Weight. I bet Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B starts to shine again soon. I’ve mentioned $PPI too. $DARP is another that holds DISRUPTIVE companies at a REASONABLE price. Some of my biggest themes riding into 2027.
The S&P 500 is near a record.
Yet 54% of Russell 3000 stocks are already down at least 20% from their June highs.
The crash wasn’t avoided. The index is hiding it.
Do the losers recover; or does the S&P 500 fall next?
forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
Nike stock is down more than 80%—and value investors see a bargain.
But a cheaper share price does not restore a fading moat.
My latest Forbes article explains what Nike must prove before “cheap” becomes an opportunity rather than a trap.
$NKE Chart via @Barchart forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
🤖 Made with AI
Jim Osman retweeted
Nike stock fell 9% after earnings.
China: -26%
Digital: -13%
Converse: -28%
Management’s answer: $2.5 billion of cost cuts.
Nike doesn’t have a cost problem. It has a product problem.
The turnaround just became a retreat. $NKE
Chart: @Barchart My latest: forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
Should Nike sell Converse?
This is the type of a question that companies should ask more often.
Firms love to acquire, but letting go of businesses they already own is usually a tougher decision.
Yet the question behind a decision to buy or sell is fundamentally the same: is Converse more valuable under Nike’s ownership than the next best alternative?
There are three components to this question:
A) First, is Nike a competent owner for Converse when it comes both to operating the business, as well as preserving and growing its long-term value?
B) Second, does the combination of Converse and Nike create more value together than the two companies do separately?
C) Third, what is the value of Converse to Nike versus the value of Converse to the best alternative owner or as a standalone firm?
Note that the three components are interdependent. It will be very challenging, if not impossible, for an incompetent owner to realize any synergies. Moreover, while strategic buyers tend to focus on synergies so much, they often forget the question of whether they can actually preserve the long-term value of the target. And when they aren’t competent owners, they often end up not only failing to realize any synergies, but also destroying the inherited value of the target. This is why you see so many failed deals end up with divestitures of targets at well below their initial acquisition price. And even if you create some value with a business combination, it can still lead to subpar or negative returns relative to valuation, cost of capital, hurdle rates. In most such situations, an optimal decision would be to divest.
Finally, three interesting findings from research on divestitures. Firms that proactively both acquire and divest tend to generate the highest returns to their M&A activity. Yet at the same time, on average, firms tend to hold onto their underperforming acquisitions for too long, and exiting an underperforming deal often requires major change, such as CEO succession or severe underperformance. But when and why you sell matters, and in my own published research I show that, perhaps not surprisingly, firms divesting from a position of weakness realize much lower returns on their exits than firms divesting from a position of strength.
Converse revenue fell to $1.17 billion. Nike hasn't questioned this asset in a while.
I'm not arguing that Nike should sell Converse tomorrow. But if the strategy is returning Nike to sport, does Converse still earn its place inside the portfolio?
That's exactly the kind of question that outside pressure is useful for forcing.
#Investing #Nike #PortfolioReview
Jim Osman retweeted
Micron stock has tripled.
Now comes the dangerous part.
Its $100 billion of customer deals look like protection. But they could also fund the capacity that ends the shortage - and the rally.
Wednesday’s earnings may expose the catch.
Chart: @Barchart $MU forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
McDonald’s stock has fallen 29%.
Management’s answer? An $8.5 billion plan, while warning that customer traffic could stay flat.
If the customers don’t come back, who pays for the turnaround?
My take: Chart @Barchart $MCD forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
GameStop isn’t really just GameStop anymore.
Ryan Cohen just put another $47 MILLION of his own money into $GME.
But here’s the number investors should be watching:
GameStop now has roughly $4.9 BILLION riding on $EBAY — about 41% of its entire market value.
The meme stock has become something very different.
And Cohen may have just made the biggest bet of his career.
My latest for Forbes. Chart @Barchart forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
The market is starting to make cautious investors look stupid.
Every dip gets bought.
Every warning gets ignored.
Every risk becomes another reason to buy.
I’ve been doing this for 30 years.
When a market makes risk management feel unnecessary, that’s usually when you need it most.
Never confuse a rising market with the absence of risk.
Jim Osman retweeted
Wall Street may be making a $200 billion mistake with $META
Investors are valuing Muse like infinitely scalable software. But if its “autonomous” AI still needs humans behind the curtain, usage may bring more costs—not just more revenue.
The demo is impressive.
The margin is the story.
My latest for @Forbes Chart @Barchart forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
Anthropic could go public at $2 trillion.
That doesn’t mean public investors are getting the best deal.
Amazon, Google and Nvidia can profit from its spending before IPO buyers see a dollar of cash flow.
The public may be arriving after the economics have already been divided.
forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
The market isn’t ignoring the risks.
It’s making a bet.
That $100 oil won’t stay high long enough to hurt margins.
Those 5% rates won’t stay high long enough to crush refinancing.
And that earnings will keep carrying the load.
That’s the real setup investors should be watching now. My latest for @Barchart barchart.com/story/news/4580…
Jim Osman retweeted
Nike has gone from untouchable blue chip to 12-year low to S&P 100 exit.
The obvious reaction is more bad news.
The more compelling question is this:
After a 78% fall, who is still left to sell?
That is where broken growth stocks can start becoming compelling investments. $NKE My latest for Forbes Chart by @Barchart forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
Lululemon. Nike. Bud Light & Disney.
Different brands. Different problems. Same investing lesson:
The customer owns the brand.
When management forgets why people showed up in the first place, the numbers eventually follow.
My latest for Forbes Charts by @Barchart $LULU $NKE $BUD $DIS forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
AST SpaceMobile has fallen more than 50%.
A director just made her biggest open-market purchase yet, at the highest price she has ever paid.
That does not prove $ASTS is cheap.
But it does make the selloff worth investigating.
My latest for @Barchart: barchart.com/story/news/4403…
Jim Osman retweeted
Nvidia just blew out earnings.
But the number I keep coming back to isn’t revenue.
It’s $279 billion.
That’s how much Nvidia has committed to future supply and capacity.
The AI boom is real. The bigger question is how far ahead Nvidia can commit before future demand becomes harder to see. $NVDA Chart @Barchart forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Jim Osman retweeted
Alibaba diluted shareholders to raise $10 billion for AI.
The market sold the stock.
Joe Tsai bought. Eddie Wu bought.
Now Jack Ma has reportedly put another $77 million into $BABA.
The dilution is easy to calculate.
The return on that $10 billion is not.
That is the bet.
Charts via @Barchart
forbes.com/sites/jimosman/20…
Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma has joined a pair of senior executives in picking up company stock to show support for its AI ambitions, the South China Morning Post reported bloomberg.com/news/articles/…









