@edzitron
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Joined December 2008
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Free newsletter: In July, Apollo Economist Torsten Slok said that "AI better work out, or we have a problem."
Facing ever-growing high-interest debt, negative-EBITDA AI labs and $200bn+ in warehoused GPUs, that's exactly what the AI industry has.
wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette…
Another force majeure has hit the AI industry
Holy smokes - NextDC
From Bloomberg:
Nextdc Ltd.’s shares plummeted after the data center operator said it was considering force majeure options and cut earnings guidance as community opposition delayed one of its major projects in Melbourne.
The Australian firm revised its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the current fiscal year through June 2027 to between A$245 million ($172 million) and A$265 million, down from A$385 million to A$410 million, in a statement Wednesday.
Trying to imagine an Australian saying “force majeure”
Holy smokes - NextDC
From Bloomberg:
Nextdc Ltd.’s shares plummeted after the data center operator said it was considering force majeure options and cut earnings guidance as community opposition delayed one of its major projects in Melbourne.
The Australian firm revised its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the current fiscal year through June 2027 to between A$245 million ($172 million) and A$265 million, down from A$385 million to A$410 million, in a statement Wednesday.
Ed Zitron retweeted
I also wanted to pull out a special part of the piece: fuck Jensen Huang. By forcing customers to take early delivery of GPUs to boost quarterly revenues, he artificially inflated the price of RAM and every consumer electronic. He and his hyperscale paypigs are scumbags.
Free newsletter: In July, Apollo Economist Torsten Slok said that "AI better work out, or we have a problem."
Facing ever-growing high-interest debt, negative-EBITDA AI labs and $200bn+ in warehoused GPUs, that's exactly what the AI industry has.
wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette…
Ed Zitron retweeted
"Speculative data center debt is being repackaged and sold to pension and retirement funds, university endowments, and other institutional investors in a manner eerily reminiscent of the subprime bubble."
ourfinancialsecurity.org/res…
Ed Zitron retweeted
Free newsletter: In July, Apollo Economist Torsten Slok said that "AI better work out, or we have a problem."
Facing ever-growing high-interest debt, negative-EBITDA AI labs and $200bn+ in warehoused GPUs, that's exactly what the AI industry has.
wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette…
Was a pleasure to give feedback on this comprehensive and thoughtful analysis of how we project people from the AI bubble bursting
ourfinancialsecurity.org/wp-…
"Speculative data center debt is being repackaged and sold to pension and retirement funds, university endowments, and other institutional investors in a manner eerily reminiscent of the subprime bubble."
ourfinancialsecurity.org/res…
These valuations are out of control and disconnected from reality and annualized revenues tell us very little about the company. Also a valuable question: how many of its clients are venture backed?
Scoop: Founded by ex-Google and Meta engineers, Fireworks AI is seeking to raise a new round of funding at a valuation between $30 billion and $40 billion, just months after raising a round at a $17.5 billion valuation bit.ly/4i9aJ8t
SCOOP: Amazon is buying Nvidia AI racks faster than it can power them up. The result: billions in hardware waiting to make money. bit.ly/3U9hCPa
Ed Zitron retweeted
OpenAI and Anthropic are the most important players in AI, and the market relies heavily on their performance and compute commitments.
Anthropic's prospectus is coming very soon. OpenAI's, not so soon.
And OpenAI matters more. It relies heavily on Nvidia systems, the same systems used by Microsoft, the other hyperscalers and dozens of neoclouds, many of which depend directly or indirectly on OpenAI's numbers.
So what are OpenAI's numbers? What do we know so far? Can we trust Sam Altman and OpenAI's trillions in commitments?
In this article, I cover all of it, including the terms you should know whenever OpenAI or the press talks about OpenAI. We want to be ready for whatever happens. When everything around OpenAI is this blurry, it can catch many market participants by surprise, and many big companies worth trillions in valuation too.
kakashiii111.substack.com/p/…
Apples and oranges and he knows it. Amazon's total capex between 2003 (year AWS started) and 2015 (year it was profitable) was $29.7bn adjusted for inflation
SCOOP: Amazon is buying Nvidia AI racks faster than it can power them up. The result: billions in hardware waiting to make money. bit.ly/3U9hCPa
Ed Zitron retweeted
Kaplan oversaw Meta's worst moments, greenlit the killing of good legislation in states and Congress, and ensured that Meta shirked accountability at every turn. He'll be viewed as a success at Meta for his role in "delay, deny, deflect," but history shouldn't remember him well.
EXCLUSIVE: Joel Kaplan leaving Meta after 15 years as policy chief
CEO Mark Zuckerberg tells Axios: "Joel has worked on virtually every tough issue Meta has faced for more than 15 years." axios.com/2026/10/20/joel-ka…
Goldman Sachs announces that CoreWeave will magically adding new, non-existent non-hyperscaler clients, mysteriously in the years that HSBC said it would be 60%+ under consensus estimates.
Goldman also owns about 3.95% of CoreWeave's shares.
Goldman Sachs: CoreWeave is rapidly diversifying its customer base away from hyperscalers. Non-hyperscaler clients are expected to represent 82% of large deal volumes by FY28 and 90% by FY30, up from just 33% in FY25.
$CRWV
This is from February and when I brought it up around the time and a few months ago as an example of how Anthropic/openai are overextending themselves people said that wasn’t what Dario meant? Very strange
Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei: "If revenue grows 10x a year, one bad guess on compute could bankrupt you."
"I could assume that the revenue will continue growing 10x a year."
"It'll be 100 billion at the end of 2026 and 1 trillion at the end of 2027."
"Actually it would be like 5 trillion dollars of compute, because it would be a trillion dollars a year for five years."
"If my revenue is not a trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt."
"I can't buy a trillion dollars a year of compute in 2027 if I'm just off by a year."
he smiles as he explains why one wrong year of compute spending could end a company :)