Erik Hembre (@EconHembre) header
Erik Hembre (@EconHembre) profile picture

Sr Economist at Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis CDE | Policy Nerd: Housing, Taxes, Safety Net, Urban Econ | @WIeconomics @StOlaf (views are my own)

Minneapolis, MN
Joined June 2016
Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)Photo by Erik Hembre (@EconHembre)
Erik Hembre retweeted
It's not that hard to find simple prompts that help learn as opposed to create slop:
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Erik Hembre retweeted
Minnesota (and later Montana) introduced an At-Home Infant Care (AHIC) program that took what the state would have paid to childcare providers as subsidis and instead paid parents directly to stay home with their newborn. It was a huge success!
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So, uh, whistleblower payout for @PabloTorre ??
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Erik Hembre retweeted
Very cool from @EconHembre and friends: how to measure homeownership rate? Currently: fraction of units where owner lives there rather than renting it out. Alternative: fraction of adults who own their home. Diff is roommates/adult children/seniors who live with a homeowner. 1/2
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I would be VERY interested to observe how LeBron’s taxes work out next year Working in Philly (3% state + 3.4% city), living in NYC (10.9%+3.9%) and potentially still domiciled in California?? (13.3%) on top of a 37% federal MTR? [71.5%] No wonder he signed at the minimum!!
LeBron James will be a resident of New York City while playing for the Sixers, per @WindhorstESPN. LeBron is officially set to commute daily from NYC to Philadelphia, potentially via helicopter.
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Erik Hembre retweeted
Is the US homeownership rate 65%? Or is it actually 53%? The Minneapolis Fed just released important research that rethinks our understanding of the US homeownership rate. The US Census rate of 65% measures the percent of homes that are OWNER OCCUPIED. That metric doesn't work well in this era where adult children increasingly live with their parents. The Minneapolis Fed looks at what % of the adult population owns a home. "HPOP" That number is much lower -- only 53%. Important read: minneapolisfed.org/article/2…
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The US homeownership rate is 65%. Except it isn't... That number is the share of housing units occupied by an owner. If you could people instead of houses, that number is 53% New @MinneapolisFed measure, the homeowners-to-population ratio (HPOP) 🧵 minneapolisfed.org/article/2…
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We've posted HPOP estimates for the nation, all 50 states, MSAs, age, race/ethnicity, and marital status. Let us know what other interesting uses you find for this new measure! How does your state rank? minneapolisfed.org/community…
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Can’t vouch for the research, but I do think the findings are absolutely true
A Stanford psychologist spent 4 years proving that the simple act of walking generates 60% more creative ideas than sitting, and the experiment she designed to kill every alternative explanation is one of the most decisive findings in modern psychology. Her name is Marily Oppezzo. She got the idea for the study while walking with her advisor at Stanford to discuss her thesis topic, and the paper she eventually published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology in 2014 is sharp enough that it should have ended the seated meeting on the day it came out. She ran 4 experiments on 176 people. Same person tested twice. Once sitting, once walking. The creativity tasks were the standard ones psychologists have used for decades to measure how good a brain is at generating novel useful ideas. The result was almost too clean to publish. 81% of participants in the first experiment produced more creative ideas while walking than while sitting. In the second experiment, 88%. In the third, 100%. Every single person walked into a more creative version of themselves. On average, people generated 60% more novel useful ideas the moment their legs started moving. The skeptical question is the obvious one. Maybe it was the fresh air. Maybe it was the scenery passing by. Maybe it was the change of environment doing the work, not the walking itself. Oppezzo killed every one of those explanations with one experimental decision. She put people on a treadmill facing a blank wall. No scenery. No fresh air. No environmental change. Just legs moving in place while staring at white drywall. The 60% boost held. Then she ran the experiment that closed the case completely. She took participants outside in two conditions. Half of them walked through a Stanford courtyard. The other half were pushed through the exact same courtyard in a wheelchair. Same outdoor stimulation. Same scenery passing at the same speed. The only difference was whether the legs were moving. The walkers produced dramatically more novel high-quality ideas than the wheelchair group. The outdoors did almost nothing on its own. The walking did everything. This is the part of the study that hit hardest when I read it the first time. She also tested the opposite kind of thinking. Convergent thinking. The kind where there is one right answer and you have to narrow down to it. Word puzzles where 3 words share a hidden fourth word that connects them. The seated participants did slightly better on these. Walkers got slightly worse. Walking is not a general intelligence enhancer. It does one specific thing. It opens up the divergent search inside your brain. The part that generates options. The part that produces unexpected connections. The part that takes a problem and finds five ways into it instead of one. When you need to converge on the single right answer, sit down. When you need to find the answer in the first place, get up. The mechanism is now well understood. Walking selectively activates what neuroscientists call the default mode network, the system inside your brain that runs when you are not consciously focused on anything. The DMN is where mind-wandering happens. Where memories cross-reference each other. Where ideas that have been sitting in separate folders inside your head finally bump into each other. When you sit at a desk and force yourself to concentrate, you suppress the DMN. When you walk at a natural pace, the executive part of your brain gets just busy enough handling the walking that the DMN comes online and starts doing the work that focus was blocking. The most useful finding in the entire paper is the one almost nobody quotes. The boost did not turn off the moment people stopped walking. Participants who walked first and then sat back down stayed elevated. Their next round of seated creativity work was still significantly better than people who had been sitting the whole time. The rest lingered for at least several minutes after the legs stopped moving. You do not need to do creative work while walking. You need to walk before the creative work. The brain holds the state. The history of this is the part that should haunt anyone who still does meetings in chairs. Charles Darwin built a gravel loop behind his house in Kent called the Sandwalk and walked it 3 times a day for the rest of his life. The theory of evolution was developed one lap at a time on that path. Nietzsche walked up to 10 hours a day during the years he wrote his most important books and openly said the work was conceived on his feet. Beethoven composed for the morning and walked for 5 hours every afternoon with a pencil in his pocket for when something landed. Kahneman said the best thinking of his Nobel Prize-winning career happened on leisurely walks with Amos Tversky. Steve Jobs refused to take important conversations sitting down. He held them on foot. Every one of them was using the system Oppezzo would not measure until 2014. They just did not know what to call it. The question worth sitting with is the one almost nobody asks. Every meeting you have ever attended sitting around a table was a meeting held at a fraction of the brain power that was actually available to the people in the room. Every brainstorm that got stuck inside a conference room. Every problem you tried to solve at a desk and gave up on. Every idea you could not quite get to. The intervention is the easiest one in modern science. No supplement. No app. No subscription. No training program. Just a pair of legs and 15 minutes. The Stanford lab proved it. The philosophers knew it. The neuroscience explains it. And almost everyone reading this is still trying to think their way out of problems sitting completely still.
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Slighlty funny to me watching the NBA basically uncover the EITC for the draft lottery as a solution for tanking.
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The degree of cybersecurity imposed for a city youth sports league signup seems…excessive. The worry is that someone will hack my account and do what exactly? So I need to 12 digit non-repeating character password that locks after 3 attempts expires in 6 months!!
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