Independent election forecaster U.S. election forecasting using early & mail vote data Data. Trends. Results.

Joined December 2023
All 50-states have elections this cycle, most of them for the House but some 35 for the Senate. I am tracking all 35 Senate Races and will, closer to the election day, release tracking for all house seats across the country. My website has a deeper look into Early Voting, my projections, the Senate Outlook & an interactive Senate Map for you to explore. There is also a members-only section for less than price of a cup of coffee each month ($2.50). In this section you'll find blog posts and I'm soon to release my House Forecast in there before it goes live to the world. I am also planning on launching some historical data & deeper insights sections in there in the short future. Please check it out - electiondataguy.com - It updates faster than my X account!
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3
2
30
32,676
SOUTH DAKOTA - 10.24.26 🗳️ 44,957 votes in 🔴 Firewall of 9,973 🥇Race is leaning Republican
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1
73
RHODE ISLAND - 10.24.26 🗳️ 60,784 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 22,517 🥇Race is leaning Democrat
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1
198
MAINE - 10.24.26 🗳️ 178,680 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 51,777 🥇Race is leaning Republican
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2
10
454
10 days until polls close in the 2026 midterm elections
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418
DELAWARE - 10.24.26 🗳️ 50,212 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 15,928 🥇Race is leaning Democrat
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2
472
IDAHO - 10.24.26 🗳️ 134,849 votes in 🔴 Firewall of 32,698 🥇Race is leaning Republican
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5
531
FLORIDA - 10.24.26 🗳️ 2,441,294 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 4,204 🥇Race is leaning Republican
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13
757
OKLAHOMA - 10.24.26 🗳️ 27,098 votes in 🔴 Firewall of 656 🥇Race is leaning Republican
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2
16
723
GEORGIA - 10.24.26 🗳️ 1,632,981 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 38,685 🥇Race is leaning Democrat
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8
775
VIRGINIA - 10.24.26 🗳️ 999,458 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 128,444 🥇Race is leaning Democrat
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730
NORTH CAROLINA - 10.24.26 🗳️ 1,453,517 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 254,015 🥇Race is leaning Democrat
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1
7
1,013
COLORADO - 10.24.26 🗳️ 794,497 votes in 🔵 Firewall of 62,923 🥇Race is leaning Democrat
2
6
778
We have an Early Vote Update from Vermont now live on the website!
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1
1
5
1,056
We have an Early Vote Update from Idaho now live on the website!
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2
21
1,137
We have an Early Vote Update from Connecticut now live on the website!
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3
1
10
1,459
We have an Early Vote Update from Arkansas now live on the website!
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2
22
1,120
🎉 25 MILLION early votes and counting! That's how many have now been cast nationally in the 2026 midterms 🗳️ Democrats 46.6% | Republicans 40.7% | Other 12.7% Just 10 days to go until polls close.
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9
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1,523