EVikkk (@EVikk0) profile picture

Learning comes first, insisting on being right does not

Joined January 2021
Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)Photo by EVikkk (@EVikk0)
EVikkk retweeted
A lot of Traders won’t like to hear this Low-R strategies actually have huge advantages over High-R strategies Most people try to “improve” their strategy by forcing bigger targets. But before widening TP, the smarter move is to risk more on the best setups. I'll explain this with an example below Let's start by looking at two strategies: • 1R target, 55% win rate → EV ≈ 0.1 • 2R target, 37% win rate → EV ≈ 0.11 On paper the 2R system looks better, it has a higher EV per trade. ... but in In reality, the 2R system has a lower winrate which results in having a higher variance, bigger losing streaks, bigger drawdowns, and you’re forced to risk LESS per trade. Meanwhile the 1R strategy with 55% winrate has roughly half the maximum drawdown, meaning you can double the USD risk per trade to match the maximum drawdown of the 2R. That means the EV in USD is far higher with the 1R strategy despite the EV in "units of R" being lower. If both systems produce 0.1 EV per trade but one lets you risk 2x more, the second one will make more money over large sample sizes. High-R strategies look cool online but in terms of risk-adjusted returns, Low-R systems usually crush them. 🌶️
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Success in crypto belongs to one type of person: People who realise that winning isn't fast, easy, or guaranteed. Your best wins will come from patience, skill, and compounding good decisions.
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Debunking Hyperliquid FUD (Part 1: HLP, liquidations, and platform guarantees) It's sad to see coordinated misinformation campaigns targeting Hyperliquid, which have led to widespread misunderstanding of what we are all working so hard to build. In response, this series of posts provides detailed, factual explanations of how Hyperliquid works. As a community, we must actively fight FUD by spreading the truth. The tone with which we do this also matters: the best way to grow as a protocol and ultimately house all finance is to remain humble and welcome more users into the ecosystem. -- The first post focuses on HLP and liquidations on Hyperliquid. High level summary The FUD is that the Hyperliquid protocol is subject to large losses stemming from manipulation. On the contrary, Hyperliquid's margining design mathematically guarantees platform solvency. Note that HLP’s losses are isolated to the vault itself, and Hyperliquid does not depend on HLP’s operation to exist. This was true even before the JELLY incident. After the JELLY incident, there is an additional change to protect HLP from losses during backstop liquidations. The fundamental changes are to HLP, not the platform itself. HLP background HLP is a permissionless protocol vault pioneered by Hyperliquid. HLP does not collect fees from depositors, and historically has returned 60M USDC in pnl to its depositors. On CEXs, this profit typically goes to the internal market making desks instead of users. HLP plays two roles: market making and backstop liquidations. In terms of market making, HLP runs a passive strategy that accounts for less than 2% of Hyperliquid's total volume. The vast majority of volume on Hyperliquid is between two non-HLP users. Liquidations On Hyperliquid, liquidations are first sent to the book as a market order. This allows any user to participate in providing liquidity to liquidations, which is profitable flow on average. On other exchanges, this flow is internalized by the exchange as a revenue source. HLP only performs backstop liquidations, which involves taking over positions that are unable to be market liquidated. When account values go negative, the last resort for platform solvency is auto-deleveraging (ADL). ADL closes underwater positions against the most profitable and highly leveraged positions on the other side, ensuring the protocol's solvency. ADL is extremely rare but importantly targets the attacker's position on both sides during manipulation attempts as described below. JELLY incident An attacker recently attempted to exploit HLP by opening a large long and short against themself. Open interest caps allowed a position worth 4M USDC at the time of trade, but the logical issue was that HLP collateralized the liquidation with its full balance. It is false that the platform itself had solvency risks, but HLP was indeed overexposed to the manipulation. Changes made Now the liquidator component vault of HLP has capped collateral, limiting its potential loss by backstop liquidations. A historical analysis was conducted based on this new system. Apart from the JELLY incident, this change would not have caused additional ADLs in the past, even during extreme volatility. However, it would have minimized HLP’s losses during the JELLY incident to low six figures, which is far less than the attacker spent on market manipulation. In particular, ADL would have closed the attacker’s momentarily profitable long position, leaving other JELLY positions untouched. Validators now actively discuss delistings in an open governance forum on Discord. Several interesting dashboards have been created by users and validators: stalequant.github.io/hyperli…, data.asxn.xyz/dashboard/hl-r…. Market cap of the underlying spot assets will likely be an important input into delisting considerations. While delistings are important to ensure that users on the platform do not suffer from potential price manipulation, they are not required for platform solvency. New state of margining system and HLP Hyperliquid still functions as before, handling under-collateralized positions in the order of 1) market liquidations 2) backstop liquidations 3) ADL. Backstop liquidations on HLP now have additional protections to cap the total losses, making mark price manipulation attacks more expensive than the limited available gain from HLP. HLP's role continues to shrink as Hyperliquid grows, and at this point is nonessential to the protocol's operation. HLP still exists as a source of protocol yield through backstop liquidations and providing consistent background liquidity.
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EVikkk retweeted
Spot ETH is live on Hyperliquid. Users may now deposit ETH directly from Ethereum Mainnet.
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When North Korea hacks Bybit everyone is like “We can't let the bad actors win" and stands together as an industry. When exchanges conspire and Jeff closes out malicious trading activity via ADL it’s “Hype is going to zero and we should let the bad actors win”. Hyperliquid.
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The Watch team wishes you a Merry Christmas and peaceful holidays... Unless you are an unhinged sentient AI trying to dominate the Earth ⚔️
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Everyone is talking about Peanut the Squirrel... But Fred the Raccoon lost his life in NY this week too.
🚨OWNER OF PET SQUIRREL RECOUNTS TRAGIC RAID BY NY OFFICIALS The owner of Peanut, a 7-year-old squirrel, shared a harrowing account of how New York officials raided his home and euthanized both Peanut and his raccoon, Fred, following anonymous complaints. He described the scene as being treated like a criminal: "Officers raided my house as if I was a drug dealer," he said, detailing how he was kept outside for hours while police interrogated his wife about her immigration status. The search, prompted by a judge’s warrant, involved a thorough search of his home, ultimately leading to the tragic decision to put down the beloved pets. Source: @TMZ , @CollinRugg
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The government should leave people and their animals alone
NEW: The owner of Peanut the squirrel explains how New York officials raided his house, took Peanut and his raccoon, and k*lled them. 7-year-old Peanut and Fred the raccoon were euthanized after anonymous complaints. “Officers raided my house as if I was a drug dealer. I was sat outside my house for five hours. I had to get a police escort to my bathroom.” “I wasn't even allowed to feed my rescue horses breakfast or lunch. I was sit, sat there like a criminal after they interrogated my wife to check out her immigration status.” “Then proceeded to ask me if I had cameras in my house. Then proceeded to go through every cabinet, nook and cranny of my house for a squirrel and raccoon.” “They got a search warrant for departments, and a judge signed off on a search warrant for a squirrel in a raccoon. And then they took them and k*lled them.” Video: @TMZ
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EVikkk retweeted
Genesis sold. Jump sold. Grayscale sold. Germany sold. Mt. Gox sold. but BlackRock bought.
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EVikkk retweeted
reminder: microstrategy is raising $2B to buy Bitcoin have a good weekend!
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EVikkk retweeted
You guys sold all your coins … But BlackRock MicroStrategy Grayscale Fidelity didn’t.
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Here's the uncomfortable reality about crypto. No one knows when the market tops or bottoms. Even your favorite influencers are guessing. Winners just manage risk better around their guesses.
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Winter is here. 🏴 ▸ Official Game Release on August 28.
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Put all your attention into minimizing losses and your profits will take care of themselves. This is the fastest way to become profitable.
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3⃣ Ethereum Spot ETF Launch is delayed! ⏳ The SEC just approved the 19b-4s listing requests but the S-1 registration statements are not yet approved. As we mentioned, the $ETH ETFs cannot begin trading until each corresponding F-1 registration statement is also approved!
Replying to @Delphi_Digital
Despite the accelerated filing updates, approval is not guaranteed. To summarize, the following outcomes are possible for tomorrow: 1️⃣19b-4s & S-1 filings are both approved → ETH ETF launch approved 2️⃣19b-4s are denied → ETH ETF launch is not approved 3️⃣19b-4s are approved but S-1 filings are delayed → ETH ETF launch is delayed
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The Hyperliquid L1 will be transitioning to HyperBFT, a custom consensus algorithm written from the ground up. The implementation is in final stages of testing on testnet. The mainnet migration is expected to happen in the coming weeks. The Hyperliquid L1 is one of a few chains in production with real demand above 20k TPS. With a scope expanding far beyond perps trading (more on that later), it is crucial to optimize the foundational consensus algorithm. Like most modern consensus algorithms, HyperBFT is based on Hotstuff and subsequent improvements. Huge thanks to the researchers who continue to push the boundaries of what is possible on a decentralized state machine. Some properites of HyperBFT: 1) TPS will be massively improved. The current bottleneck for the Hyperliquid L1 is Tendermint, which caps out at 20k orders/second. HyperBFT can support up to 100x the throughput, though in practice the state machine execution will be a bottleneck at around 200k orders/second. 2) Consensus does not block on execution. Unlike Ethereum and Tendermint, the consensus algorithm can continue sequencing transactions without waiting for the hash of the current block being executed. 3) Confirmation latency will improve and stabilize, with block times bounded only by the network delay. Unlike earlier BFT algorithms such as Tendermint, there is no synchronous timescale baked into the consensus algorithm itself under normal block production. Blocks are produced as quickly as a quorum of validators can communicate. This property is sometimes called "optimistic responsiveness." The mainnet rollout will be incremental, focusing first on stability at performance parity with the current L1 before cranking up throughput.
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A Tip after the Dump. Forget what you were worth yesterday or at All time High. If you always keep your All time High Portfolio in mind, you will constantly revenge trade in anxiety to reach your Portfolio ATH Again. I have done it many times in 2018 and all ended in disaster. Each day, a new day.
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🎉 🎉 🎉 #Bitcoin reached block 840,000! Happy fourth #halving everyone! May the next 210,000 blocks bring even more prosperity and adoption!
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Privacy is normal. Railgun uses the privacy pools protocol ( papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… ) which makes it much harder for bad actors to join the pool without compromising users' privacy. xitter.cf/WuBlockchain/status/17…
Vitalik Buterin (vitalik.eth) transferred 100 ETH (approximately $325,000) to Railgun at 17:40 UTC+8 today. Railgun is a EVM privacy protocol that enables DeFi private transactions. Over the past six months, Vitalik Buterin has been interacting with the Railgun using small amounts of ETH basically every month. platform.arkhamintelligence.…
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