.@HadickM on @MTSlive re: agents + money:
“When you’re built on top of Plaid, you have a bunch of failures, failure rates at 2% or so for ACH. And there’s a lot of capital inefficiency in it as well.”
“If you ask your LLM what bank should you use that is agent friendly, they’ll tell you Mercury. They won’t tell you JPMorgan.”
“A financial institution that controls those different accounts and is able to monetize those different accounts, that is AI first and agent first, that is where you’re likely to see a lot of this happen.”
“The concern is the surplus will continue to shift from banks to fintechs.”
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
New addition for the crypto podcast roster 👀
High quality guests, strong opinions, and a ton of fun.
@HadickM and I will be bringing on incredible operators this year. Grateful the @thestablecon team asked us to host.
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
🎙️A new season. A new duo. Money Code Season 2 welcomes @HadickM and @Nick_van_Eck as your new hosts.
Rob is a General Partner at @dragonfly, investing across stablecoins, payments and financial infrastructure. He previously helped build GoldenTree’s digital asset strategy, with earlier roles at Goldman Sachs and PJT Partners.
Nick is the CEO and Co-founder of @withAUSD, a modern money and banking platform. A former Partner at General Catalyst, he’s gone from backing software and blockchain companies to building one.
On Money Code, they’ll speak with founders, operators, allocators and policymakers about stablecoins, tokenized assets and AI.
What’s ready for adoption? Where are the investment opportunities? What still needs to be built?
Insights to help you make better build, buy, partner and investment decisions.
What would you ask an investor and a stablecoin founder?
Episode 1 is coming soon. Subscribe to Money Code wherever you get your podcasts.
Presented by @thestablecon.
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
High quality guests, strong opinions, and a ton of fun.
@HadickM and I will be bringing on incredible operators this year. Grateful the @thestablecon team asked us to host.
🎙️A new season. A new duo. Money Code Season 2 welcomes @HadickM and @Nick_van_Eck as your new hosts.
Rob is a General Partner at @dragonfly, investing across stablecoins, payments and financial infrastructure. He previously helped build GoldenTree’s digital asset strategy, with earlier roles at Goldman Sachs and PJT Partners.
Nick is the CEO and Co-founder of @withAUSD, a modern money and banking platform. A former Partner at General Catalyst, he’s gone from backing software and blockchain companies to building one.
On Money Code, they’ll speak with founders, operators, allocators and policymakers about stablecoins, tokenized assets and AI.
What’s ready for adoption? Where are the investment opportunities? What still needs to be built?
Insights to help you make better build, buy, partner and investment decisions.
What would you ask an investor and a stablecoin founder?
Episode 1 is coming soon. Subscribe to Money Code wherever you get your podcasts.
Presented by @thestablecon.
We’re featured in @elwood_io’s latest case study!
@joshraphaellim sat down with our portfolio company to break down how we track our token positions across the full lifecycle ⤵️
New case study: how @dragonfly runs a token portfolio from locked to liquid.
elwood.io/insights/portfolio…
-
For professional clients only. Not for retail clients.
Elwood is a technology provider; clients trade through their own venue and counterparty relationships. Dragonfly is also an investor in Elwood.
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
“It was the right idea, the wrong time.”
At @kbwofficial, @dragonfly GP @tomhschmidt tells @_dsencil what Polymarket and Ethena taught him about timing, then looks ahead to perp DEXs, prediction markets and crypto AI.
Watch now.
In a year, this may read very differently. ⏬
.@hosseeb on speculative mania:
"There's no financial revolution that has taken place without some kind of speculative mania... Now we see it happening with AI, and of course we've seen it many times now with crypto."
"The thing that really explains speculation is human behavior, and ultimately people's willingness to believe and to pull forward the expectations of the future."
"One thing that you can see from all the bubbles that previously took place within crypto is that they were all correct. They were all right that crypto was going to take over the world, that it was going to expand like a wildfire, and that it was going to be way bigger than anybody at the time was contemplating."
podcast credit // @laboss xitter.cf/laboss/status/20919419…
What happened to crypto?
I sat down with Haseeb Qureshi (@hosseeb), Managing Partner at Dragonfly, to find out.
We spoke about digital dollars, nationalized banks, bubbles and speculation, Iran and BlackRock, jaywalking, and beanie babies.
0:00 – Intro
1:23 – What Happened to Crypto?
3:18 – Stablecoins and Escape Velocity
7:04 – Bitcoin, Gold, and the Generational Trade
10:34 – War and Stores of Value
15:06 – Retail, Nvidia, and Capital Flight
18:23 – Stablecoins 101
20:00 – Eurodollars, Venmo, and AI Agents
23:00 – Dollarization and the Black Market
25:28 – Banks, Airwaves, and the Balance of Power
31:20 – Too Many Currencies
36:11 – Institutions and Cypherpunks
40:08 – Iran and BlackRock
41:00 – Speculation and Bubbles
43:12 – Prediction Markets and the Overton Window
51:04 – Skin in the Game and the Rational Voter
54:06 – Staying in Crypto
57:13 – When Crypto VC Ends
58:57 – What Would Change Haseeb’s Mind on Crypto
1:03:00 – What Should More People Be Thinking About?
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
I should probably also mention, @dragonfly is investing in @typesafeai's latest round! :)
My quick thesis on decision models, since I've been having a lot of conversations about this lately:
LLMs are amazing because they are fully general. You can use them for pretty much anything. But they are slow, expensive, and too unreliable to embed in software at runtime. Unless your product is literally chat, real-time LLM calls are unworkable for the majority of use cases. (Especially in finance!)
Decision models change that. To abuse an analogy, they are the ASICs of LLMs. They give up the generality of an LLM, but in exchange for constraining your outputs, you get MASSIVE gains in cost-efficiency, throughput, and latency.
In the early days of the AI boom, people understandably tried to shove LLMs into everything. But like with ASICs, you will eventually constrain your problem enough to burn it into the machine. Once your problem is an if-else, a buy or sell, a label, a choice, or a well-defined state machine like an onchain smart contract, a decision model will clobber the LLM on cost, speed, and reliability.
Most systems are not language-in, language-out.
Going forward, LLMs will write our code (since coding is high-dimensional and general), but that code will embed decision models to make runtime software intelligent and capable.
That's the bet we're making with Typesafe. They identified this path and proved that it works. 25%+ of the Fortune 500 is already using Jev, and it launched less than a month ago.
Of course, there are murmurings on the timeline that decision models are easy to copy. OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Cloudflare have all launched decision models in the weeks since Jev launched, realizing that this is going to be an enormous market and they don't want to lose it.
To be sure, anyone can lop off the last layer of Qwen, fine-tune it to create a classifier, and copy the Typesafe SDK's API. But there's a lot more that goes into a world-class decision model, and there's a reason why Jev is still cheaper, faster, and more general than these other alternatives. (Decision model benchmarking started all of 10 minutes ago, but if you ask devs who've tried them, they'll tell you Jev is far and away the best right now.)
There's no guarantee that lead lasts forever though. Decision models are too big of a market to be able to coast into a monopoly. From here, the onus is on them. They have to keep training better models ($$ helps), ship great products, serve their models better, faster, and cheaper than anyone else (many more tricks there), and win developers with their community-first philosophy. But they've been at this for years and have a lot up their sleeves (they were expecting a bevy of copycats if Jev took off). Diogo knows from his years at OpenAI how to sustain a research advantage. And as with all startups, focus is how you beat the incumbents.
Super bullish on this team.
And if you're a dev and you haven't tried Jev yet, get on it.
Huge congrats to @CompleteSkeptic and the @typesafeai team!
I was an angel investor in the seed round, and I remember when they were trying to raise their Series A--almost every investor passed because they didn't get it, "the team is too eccentric," and "non-LLM approaches are a dead end."
After the launch of Jev, every investor in the world was beating down their door.
Typesafe is living proof that great ideas are still out there, and all it takes is the persistence and inspiration to bring them to to life.
Upward and onward 👏
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
The next wave of crypto companies will need more than a strong narrative.
Tom Schmidt (@tomhschmidt), General Partner at @dragonfly, joins DAF New York to discuss where venture investors are finding conviction across infrastructure, DeFi, stablecoins, payments and new market technologies.
Meet Tom and other leading investors at DAF New York:
eblockchainconvention.com/di…
Is crypto VC going extinct?
"No, I think it's evolving."
"If you rewind the clock back to 2021–2022, there were a lot more VCs who raised money on the idea that they were going to deploy into a crypto venture."
"And the idea was that, well, anybody can do this. You just have to sling some money around and some tokens and everything goes up automatically."
"We're in a very different world now. We're in a regime where there's not that many players that are really institutional quality, and that can really add value to a lot of these projects."
"Most of the easy money in crypto is gone now."
@hosseeb on @BloombergTV at Token2049
Full interview via Bloomberg: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
125,000 people joined our livestream on X. A new record for the Gamma Prime Investing Summit.
Thank you to everyone who joined us in Singapore and online!
One takeaway from @HadickM, General Partner at @dragonfly : their 2022 fund vintage was roughly 70% token-related investments and 30% equity. In their latest vintage, he said that mix had essentially flipped.
On the same panel, @multicoin @SpencerApplebau described a different direction: roughly two-thirds tokens, with potentially more in the next vintage.
As a family office allocator, I want to understand what sits behind those choices.
When the underlying business grows, how does that value reach the security I own? What are my rights, dilution risks and path to liquidity?
These are the conversations we bring people together for: specific investment decisions you can learn from and apply to your own portfolio.
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
Replying to @hosseeb
@hosseeb spoke with @business about the intersection of crypto and AI, and agentic payments. Put simply:
“It’s early, but it’s where I see the smartest founders trying out new ideas,” Qureshi said.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Dragonfly GP @HadickM says your AI agent may end up choosing your bank for you, and today it’s more likely to recommend Mercury than JPMorgan:
"It seems quite unlikely to me that anything built on top of Plaid is going to be able to do a lot of mass movement on a regular basis of any sort of money."
"What I think is more likely to be true is that you'll have a bank that's agent first."
"If you ask your LLM what bank should you use that is agent friendly, they'll tell you Mercury. They won't tell you JPMorgan."
"A financial institution that controls those different accounts and is able to monetize those different accounts, that is AI first and agent first, that is where you're likely to see a lot of this happen."
@dragonfly
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
Polymarket: the information edge.
Next week at TOKEN2049 Institutional, @shayne_coplan (@Polymarket) sits down with @hadickm (@dragonfly).
Thu 8 Oct · Institutional Stage
Dragonfly >|< retweeted
Catch me today talking about the future of finance at 1:30pst
MTS is live and here's what we're talking about this morning:
- Jay Clayton becomes AI czar
- The "grassroots rebellion" occurring in the AI industry
- Ro Khanna's claim that the U.S. and China need to sign a treaty
- Broadcom deploys another $60 billion for Anthropic
Following this up with some excellent guests on the show today:
- @AndrewYang Founder of the Forward Party talking about UBI, AI's impact on jobs and the third wave of philanthropy
- @danrobinson General Partner & Head of Research at Paradigm talking about Pace, their game on the race dynamics between AI labs
- @patio11 Advisor to Stripe & writer at Bits about Money talking about how good the models have suddenly gotten & his thoughts on AI more broadly
- @ml_angelopoulos Co-founder & CEO of Arena talking about Gemini 4 Argon taking the #1 spot and the recent pace of model development
- @RayanKrishnan Co-founder & CEO of Vals AI talking about the Vals Index, the pace of model progress and building benchmarks that don't saturate
- @HadickM General Partner at Dragonfly talking about where AI and banking collide
- @KevinTFrazier AI Innovation and Law Fellow at UT Austin Law talking about the White House superintelligence accord and the FTC probe
If it isn't coming from dragonfly.com or @Dragonfly, it isn't us.
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