Cross-asset swing trader | Crypto · Equities · Futures Positioning & derivatives data for ideas. Price action for entries. Rules for risk.
Joined October 2025
- Tweets4.1K
- Following347
- Followers775
- Likes1.2K
Pinned Tweet
WEEK AHEAD | OCT 19–23
AI infra down ~16% in a week while the WMT/KO crowd gets to enjoy their weekend. Fair enough
Nasdaq lost roughly 4.5%, SPX around 2%. Optical names and neoclouds got properly rinsed, and by Friday software was getting dragged down with semis too.
Monday’s early bounce is nice. I’m still watching whether it survives the cash open.
Crypto still looks like a BTC-first market to me.
Latest dashboard snapshot: only 6/20 tracked coins above their 50DMA, down from 16/20 a week earlier. OI roughly 5% lower on the week and funding cooler.
OI has come down, but participation has deteriorated too. I don’t see a reason to suddenly long the entire alt menu.
bitcoin:native holding its range while alts print lower lows is decent relative strength. Still watching $80k as my reference, and SPX 7,700 as a reclaim-and-hold test.
Smaller alts can still underperform, especially if OTHERS/BTC breaks down further.
Taking profit on shorts here would make sense to me. Going aggressively long needs more evidence.
$ZEC/ near:native / base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf / ethereum:0x6985884c4392d348587b19cb9eaaf157f13271cd stay on the radar. Want to see them hold up during weakness, attract spot buying and have enough liquidity to trade properly.
My plan is pretty simple.
Let the open breathe. Watch what stops making new lows first. If we get another panic flush, look for a reclaim that actually holds.
I’d get more constructive with calmer credit, improving breadth and AI leaders defending their lows. If every opening pump gets sold and software keeps following semis down, I’m keeping risk tight.
Happy to trade a bounce. Just don’t want to become its exit liquidity.
Crypto getting slapped..
BTC -1.7%, ETH/SOL roughly -2.7% over 6H. All 20 alts in our basket red. Volume picking up, but price keeps bleeding.
Spot is bidding majors and still can’t lift price. OI mixed, so calling leverage “flushed” is a stretch.
Oil up. Yields up. That “we’re so back” bounce is already looking sus across most of the board.
Semis still struggling. Buying a panic bounce is one thing; marrying the bottom call is another. Staying nimble here.
$BTC holding above $80k is decent relative strength, but lose 7,700 on $SPX and crypto could get humbled real quick.
Who’s actually buying here, and who’s just praying for their exit?
Opened $NVDA, $MU, $SNDK + $SOXL. Back in the chip trenches.
Cut my $SMH and other AI/semi exposure in profit last Thursday via ATR rules. The flush has now brought us into the key areas where I wanted to rebuild.
What I like: better entry levels, continued interest in the AI buildout, and potential for a sharp bounce if the selling pressure eases.
$NVDA for broader AI exposure, $MU / $SNDK for memory, $SOXL for the tactical juice.
Some of this selloff may be positioning-driven, but earnings and China memory competition remain risks. Building gradually, staying nimble.
Levels fail, I'm out.
Closed my AI/semi trades last night.
Bought the dip for a bounce, local lows broke, trade invalidated. Took the L. Anthropic didn’t deliver the reassurance the market wanted. More fear, more degrossing, and every China/memory headline became another excuse to sell.
Meanwhile, CRWV credit is flashing a warning. Funding the AI buildout with cash flow versus expensive debt makes a massive difference when things get ugly. And “cheap P/E” on peak memory earnings can be a nasty trap. If earnings normalize lower, that bargain suddenly isn’t so cheap.
Still like the longer-term AI thesis, but I want credit to stabilize and semis to stop printing fresh lows before jumping back in.
My takes are still in the game so nothing really change to me at this point we are still above 80ish which is line in the sand so I'm going to either buying into strength or lower in my mid 70s zone, also tomorrow MSCI verdict about possible unlisting.
$BTC update where my head is at after the last post:
1) Finally, a proper leverage flush. We got massive long liquidations after quite a while. Unless we’re dealing with another October 10 last year type of event, these flushes can be decent spots to start taking risk while everyone else is getting rekt. A bunch of leveraged longs got washed out, which can leave the market in a healthier state. OI has been coming down too, but that cuts both ways: less leverage is good, less appetite to participate isn’t necessarily bullish. A cleaner market still needs buyers.
2) Same key zone: $82–80k. Been mentioning this one for ages. Every CT maestro now has the same fucking box on their chart lol. Obvious level, plenty of eyes on it but being obvious doesn’t guarantee it holds but for now yes.
3) Yesterday’s local low landed right in that zone. The daily 50 SMA is sitting around there too, but daily momentum is still chopping around its average. Pretty flip-flop conditions. No clean directional signal yet.
4) Spot bids aren’t convincing me yet. The spot orderbook isn’t as loaded as I expected. In the attached depth screenshot, bids have only slowly built to around $22.4m. Some support showing up, but I’d like to see more size and buyers actually absorbing the selling.
5) ETFs are selling again. Over $700m in net outflows across the last two days. A leverage flush helps, but persistent spot selling can still make the dip-buying party pretty fucking miserable.
6) I’m still flat on swings. Majors’ price action remains uninspiring. Meanwhile, specific alts keep pumping because people still WANT to gamble. A few casino runners don’t convince me the broader market is healthy.
7) My plan stays conditional. If BTC starts consolidating here, spot bids show real support and ETF flows turn back to buying, I have no problem buying higher. Happy to pay up once the market gives me something clearer. Until then, I can see a squeeze toward the area where the sell-off started. I’ll watch the reaction there: a rejection could offer a short with clean invalidation; a breakout and hold above this small range could give me a long. There’s probably more to work with on lower timeframes right now. During the US burger session, I suspect some options / structured-product flow might be contributing to the selling pressure, but that’s a hypothesis I can’t confirm call selling from price action alone. If we keep defending $82–80k and get the better R/R shown in the last screenshot, I might stab a small long. Still need a clear invalidation otherwise if we lose 50 Daily SMA and this zone then expecting rotation back to mid 70s.
TLDR: First leverage flush is behind us. Now comes the harder part: seeing whether real buyers show up. Mixed confluence on both sides, so I’m keeping risk small and letting the reaction decide. No need to force a swing just because some longs got rekt.
$BTC spot selling hard while OI keeps climbing. Funding still positive. Corn adding leverage while losing altitude.
Looks like fuel building for a bigger move.
If spot keeps dumping, shorts can pile in and press this lower. If buyers absorb it and reclaim the breakdown, those late shorts become fuel instead.
Sometimes is TA really helpful.
OIL is consolidating above 88$ horizontal line level with very clean retest of simple trend-line since July.
Weekend thoughts:
$WLD and $FIL had elevated spot activity in the morning 6H window. $NEAR is showing solid relative strength with decent size trading, although its recent spot volume was below its own average.
$OP is the reminder to zoom in: green on the daily, down over that 6H window despite heavy activity. Big volume doesn’t automatically mean buyers are in control.
Zooming out, weekly BTC / ETH ETF flows remain negative and stablecoin supply is slightly down over the week. A few green tickers aren’t enough to call the whole market back.
Watching whether the leaders hold their gains and keep attracting spot bids. There’s stuff to trade, but chasing every weekend candle is how you become someone else’s exit liquidity.
Have a nice weekend everyone!
$BTC update where my head is at after the last post:
1) Finally, a proper leverage flush. We got massive long liquidations after quite a while. Unless we’re dealing with another October 10 last year type of event, these flushes can be decent spots to start taking risk while everyone else is getting rekt. A bunch of leveraged longs got washed out, which can leave the market in a healthier state. OI has been coming down too, but that cuts both ways: less leverage is good, less appetite to participate isn’t necessarily bullish. A cleaner market still needs buyers.
2) Same key zone: $82–80k. Been mentioning this one for ages. Every CT maestro now has the same fucking box on their chart lol. Obvious level, plenty of eyes on it but being obvious doesn’t guarantee it holds but for now yes.
3) Yesterday’s local low landed right in that zone. The daily 50 SMA is sitting around there too, but daily momentum is still chopping around its average. Pretty flip-flop conditions. No clean directional signal yet.
4) Spot bids aren’t convincing me yet. The spot orderbook isn’t as loaded as I expected. In the attached depth screenshot, bids have only slowly built to around $22.4m. Some support showing up, but I’d like to see more size and buyers actually absorbing the selling.
5) ETFs are selling again. Over $700m in net outflows across the last two days. A leverage flush helps, but persistent spot selling can still make the dip-buying party pretty fucking miserable.
6) I’m still flat on swings. Majors’ price action remains uninspiring. Meanwhile, specific alts keep pumping because people still WANT to gamble. A few casino runners don’t convince me the broader market is healthy.
7) My plan stays conditional. If BTC starts consolidating here, spot bids show real support and ETF flows turn back to buying, I have no problem buying higher. Happy to pay up once the market gives me something clearer. Until then, I can see a squeeze toward the area where the sell-off started. I’ll watch the reaction there: a rejection could offer a short with clean invalidation; a breakout and hold above this small range could give me a long. There’s probably more to work with on lower timeframes right now. During the US burger session, I suspect some options / structured-product flow might be contributing to the selling pressure, but that’s a hypothesis I can’t confirm call selling from price action alone. If we keep defending $82–80k and get the better R/R shown in the last screenshot, I might stab a small long. Still need a clear invalidation otherwise if we lose 50 Daily SMA and this zone then expecting rotation back to mid 70s.
TLDR: First leverage flush is behind us. Now comes the harder part: seeing whether real buyers show up. Mixed confluence on both sides, so I’m keeping risk small and letting the reaction decide. No need to force a swing just because some longs got rekt.
Yesterday the market went red, but the real story was on the water
S&P −0.5%, Nasdaq −1.25%.
AI infra got dumped with no news at all: CoreWeave −7%, Nebius −7%, Arm −6%. Just vibes prob.
US yields dipped from 5.3% to 5.2%. Small relief, bonds are breathing for a sec.
Tankers are printing. Trafigura reportedly paid $76M for ONE supertanker trip from Texas to China. That's ~10x the pre-Iran-war price. Frontline +6% on the day (+152% YoY), International Seaways +176% YoY. Frontline is a $12B company with fewer than 100 employees, basically a box of ships and dividends. Most based business model in the market fr
AI race update: OpenAI is targeting a $70B+ run rate by year-end, but Anthropic reportedly hit $65B back in July. Meanwhile Haiku 5.5 dropped 75% cheaper. Token prices are speedrunning to zero.
TSMC September revenue +55% YoY, close to a $200B annual run rate. The picks and shovels keep winning.
IPO market is cooked: Nvidia-backed Firmus (Australian datacenters) can't fill a $5.5B raise at a $30B valuation. Books closed, crickets. Anthropic's S-1 has been "any day now" for a month
BTC dipped into 80ish my swing S/R zone where I'm expected some reaction what we got but this could be just some shorts unwind as you can see in the orderflow, really crucial going to be today close I'd say for broad crypto. Bitcoin is still the only asset what make sesne to long me but will not be in a hurry and want to see if we consolidate here or if we get back in old ranje. Gold slightly up after ytd and oil ~$90 with a hurricane heading into the Gulf.
GLHF