Really enjoyed chatting with @stockspinoffss about Topgolf, Callaway, and $MODG. We dug into the Topgolf sale, capital structure, what the 40% stake really represents, and how the core golf business looks from here. Always fun to talk golf and investing at the same time. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…

Our summer 2027 Internship is up. Feel free to share with anyone who may be interested. lnkd.in/p/eQXMJGUv

Flight from ROC to NYC maybe 1/3 full

If anyone is attending the FMX investor day, I’d love to meetup at the cocktail reception or afterwards. Looking forward to what they announce. $BGC

Special Day today in Savannah, GA. Glad she said yes!

$FPH - Out in Valencia this morning to see what’s changed from a few years ago.

$BGC - FMX vol + OI ramping nicely into their investor day in a month.

It's interesting how, in years past, investors used to play for the beat/miss on earnings day. I'm beginning to think it's now about being able to analyze whether the move is correct or not and take advantage of dislocations where the move is directionally incorrect. I.e., the market thinks the print is bad, yet you do the work and find that it was actually ok or good.

$CLMT - $XOM management "If you if you exclude Covid where there was no demand, I've never seen the available capacity relative to demand as low as it is today. It's going to take a while for the industry to kind of climb its way. Out of that hole, and so from our perspective, we think we're going to continue to see a very robust Refining market. With very high margins."

$BGC - I will continue to reiterate - Fantastic market backdrop + Expense Discipline (UK 1 time tax expense this Qtr obscures this) + several business developments. Continue to expect them to grow top line LDD for the next few years.

Fanatics to acquire Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse L.P. from $BGC - not a part of the business ever mentioned. BGC and Fanatics enter into a data & analytics partnership - high-margin business. BGC is quickly becoming a multi-legged growth story. Recent expansion into Compute Infrastructure, ECS cross-selling opportunities, Prediction markets, FMX Exchange. Q2 had challenging comps, and BGC still performed well. As comps ease in the 2H, expect revenue to reaccelerate, combined with margin expansion, which is a great setup.

Finally picked up your book @edgeCGroup - Looking forward to reading it.

O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 Letter - $SPHR, $QCOM, $CALY, $GLW, $HCC

$BGC - Launched their institutional fixed income pricing on Pyth, putting their data in front of a new distribution network via Pyth Pro and the Pyth Data Marketplace. This is in their high-margin Fenics Market Data segment.

$SEG - Availability across New York City's prime retail corridors has fallen to a record low of 11.9%, according to JLL's Q2 2026 Prime Retail Market Statistics report. It’s the lowest quarterly rate on record. Average asking rents climbed to $592/sf - nearing post-pandemic highs. Restaurants and bars airing Knicks championship games saw a median sales increase of 25%. Supply decreasing, demand increasing = good position for Seaport.

Lumber - Interesting to look at Sep + Nov futures. One would think if some amount of today's spot price incorporates Canadian duties, Sep+Nov futures prices should be at or near today's spot price. Ie when duties go from 35% to 25%, some amount of that flows through pricing. Instead, lumber futures are ~3% higher in Sep + November. Storage costs are obviously something; however, should this hold, it should be a nice tailwind to Canadian producers. 10% lower duties + higher prices – this all assumes Trump does not, in return, increase tariffs 10% to offset the CVD decline.

Interesting paper on housing demand. Something I have thought about a lot is discussed in depth here. Do we get out of the housing supply/demand imbalance when boomers either downsize or move to senior living facilities? Household math: roughly 8.6 million net new households from 2025 to 2035 and 5.1 million from 2035 to 2045 under the Census main series, versus 10.1 to 13.5 million per decade historically. HOUSING - That translates to a baseline demand of about 1.13 million new units per year for 2025 to 2035, falling to about 802,000 per year in the following decade. On the other side, I think what might be missing from the paper is people living longer, coupled with aging in place. If we assume people will live longer (not a hard assumption to make), does this offset decreased fertility rates? Ie does the population grow because fewer people are dying, not because people are having more kids? Historically, having a living great-grandparent was incredibly rare. Even with slower household formations, I suspect it will become more of a norm over the next 30 years that a great-grandparent is alive. mba.org/news-and-research/ne…