Three points most have missed on this Bloomberg story... 1️⃣ Bloomberg economists demolish the NBER claim of an 8% Brexit hit to UK GDP, which they rightly describe as 'misleading', specifically because it is biased by data from the US and Ireland (as others have noted too)... 2️⃣ Bloomberg come up with a lower estimate of 3.4% by stripping out Ireland and "adjusting the US growth trajectory to reflect pre-2016 levels of outperformance". But in my view this is still flawed, because it includes data from countries like Italy and Spain whose post-2016 growth has also been flattered by local factors (notably the rebound from the euro debt crisis of the early 2010s and exceptional fiscal stimulus). These "top-down" estimates are always dodgy because they start from the assumption that Brexit was the only thing that has happened over the last ten years... 3️⃣ The report also uses the WTO Global Trade Model in an attempt to capture the impact of higher trade barriers. This comes up with a lower number of 2.5% for the long-term hit, but is still highly dependent on the assumptions made. In reality, the UK's global trade has performed much better than expected. In short, this Bloomberg study is better than most and the numbers are more realistic - but still far too high! There is also no discussion of the Brexit benefits - including smarter regulation and savings on contributions to the EU budget - which should build over time... bloomberg.com/news/articles/…