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New publication! Combating WMD in the Middle East
Read my paper with @UNIDIR to see how Arab states, Iran, and Israel are adjusting their WMD policies to regional security dynamics and military trends.
THREAD on key findings and policy options/ 1 unidir.org/publication/comba…
This is a shocking news. One of the best Saudi experts in the field and a truly amazing person and colleague. A person who was respected and loved by everyone I know in the expert community. May god bless him.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
My first @CrisisGroup commentary:
How War is Reshaping #Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Three years of hostilities have transformed Tehran’s network of allies in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic is now relying more heavily on itself, while adapting its relationships with partners whose diminished military utility has not necessarily reduced its commitment to their protection.
crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
گفتوگو با #حمیدرضا_عزیزی از اندیشکده #گروه_بحران درباره #محور_مقاومت و آینده جنگ.
youtu.be/4kXiVPCQyU4
حمیدرضا عزیزی متخصص مطالعات منطقهای با تمرکز بر #محور_مقاومت است. او در کتابش با عنوان «محور مقاومت» چگونگی شکلگیری شبکه نیروهای محور مقاومت، نسبت آنها با ایران، سازوکارهای عمل آن و تحولاتش بهمثابه شبکه بازدارندگی و مقاومت را تحلیل میکند.
youtu.be/4kXiVPCQyU4
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Iran’s precision strikes picked apart Gulf infrastructure, blunting US war plans - reuters.com/investigations/i…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
An important part of the speech of Qatar's Emir yesterday was the transparency and honesty with which he describes the situation for the region
There should be no illusion that things will just bounce back to how things were in February 2026 - the Gulf will have to bounce forward into a new post-American reality
This also means there is an urgent need for a regional solution to a regional problem, with reciprocity and inclusion, involving the GCC, Iran and others
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
As it stands, the Iran war was really bad for everyone except Russia.
New: Trump administration has warned Ukraine and allies in Europe that the US could suspend intelligence sharing and European purchases of US weapons for Ukraine if Kyiv does not halt its deep strikes on Russian energy facilities, two European offcials tell CNN. (Confirming FT’s story with some additional details). cnn.com/2026/10/11/politics/…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Looking forward to every country that signed this pledge condemning the U.S. blockades against Iran and Cuba, which represent both “discriminatory limits on the passage of ships through such waterways in a manner inconsistent with international law” and a “coercive or unilateral action seeking to undermine or circumvent the international order based on international law as reflected in the UNCLOS.”
International navigation must remain open to everyone, not to whoever can pay.
Today, 60 countries pledged to oppose tolls or fees on international shipping routes by joining our “No Fees, No Tolls” global pledge.
This is a clear diplomatic signal to all those who seek to hijack waterways for their own gain.
I want to thank all the countries who signed up and invite others to join us.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Saudi Arabia faces no good options with the Houthis. Military escalation was inevitable and is likely to continue - but it will hurt Saudi Arabia more than the Houthis. Negotiations are inevitable too - though not in the short term. The Houthis hold stronger cards, and they know it; their goal will be to extract maximal concessions from Saudi Arabia, which remains reluctant to pay this very high price.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
It's been truly surreal to see groups like @Kpler & others to stake their credibility on Trump’s claims of Hormuz “normalization” as tankers are being blown up, freight rates hit $1.4M a day and Trump literally has to cut a diesel *deal* with Putin to ease the crisis.
Something that many warned before is now prevailing. Attacking Iran is a mother of regional war.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
The war in Yemen is escalating, and wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and increasingly airports will soon make this war even bigger, and if US-Iran war resumes, Yemen-Saudi conflict will become a hot front in that war. The Middle East is on the edge of a much larger region-wide war
Breaking News: At least 12 people were killed and 50 more were injured in a Houthi attack on an airport in the Saudi capital, officials said. The strike was the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February. nyti.ms/4hGWLvt
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
It sounds like Rubio is pitching Huntington's Clash of Civilizations 2.0. Instead of clash of Islam and the West, he is seeing a civilizational clash between Iran and the West. The age of Islamophobia is being replaced by "Iranophobia."
.@SenMarcoRubio may have just handed Tehran one of the biggest propaganda gifts of this war and planted a deeply damaging narrative in the minds of Iranians who once viewed America favorably, potentially shaping their perception of the U.S. for generations to come.
Reaching back 2,500 years to invoke Xerxes and the burning of Athens to frame a contemporary war isn’t just lazy history. It’s dangerous politics. Ancient empires fought, destroyed, and conquered one another. Including Alexander's burning of Persepolis.
Dragging that into today’s conflict explains nothing. It just reframes this war as a civilizational clash. And that plays directly into Tehran’s hands. For years, the Iranian government has struggled to convince its own people that the U.S. is not against the regime, but against Iran itself. @marcorubio framing makes that argument for them.
Even many Iranians who despise the Islamic Republic are deeply proud of Iran’s history and identity. Foreign attacks and civilizational rhetoric don’t win them over. They push people away. So instead of isolating the government, this kind of rhetoric helps it rally around nationalist sentiment and resistance. Whatever the intent, the effect is clear. Washington is helping Tehran sell a story that it could never fully sell on its own: That the United States is at war with Iran itself.
At a time when Washington has yet to provide a full public accounting of the strike on a school in Minab that tragically killed more than 168 people on the first day of the war, including 120 children, when 1000s of Iranians have been killed, dozens of Americans have lost their lives, hundreds more have been wounded, and ordinary Americans are paying the economic price of this war, Rubio's attempt to reach back 2,500 years to invoke a clash of civilizations is a stunningly misguided diversion. Rather than answering the most urgent questions why the United States went to war, what it has achieved, and how it justifies the enormous human suffering and destruction it has inflicted- he seems to be searching ancient history for a moral framework to explain a war whose present-day consequences demand accountability.
The question is not what Xerxes did to Athens 2,500 years ago. It is what the United States is doing to Iran today, why it is doing it, and who will be held accountable for the lives destroyed in the process.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Quite a remarkable exercise in political self-sabotage: after all those years of propaganda, political courtship and efforts to groom Iranians, you've managed to alienate some of the very people who have spent years trying to convince everyone (including themselves) that they're not merely Western allies, but practically Westerners themselves (the "original whites", "the Aryans").
Someone should remind Rubio that Plato lived in a world in which Persia was a great power, and in which Greeks and Persians were deeply entangled, not only through warfare but also through diplomacy, trade and cultural exchange. Plato knew enough about Persia to discuss Cyrus, Darius and Xerxes in his own writings...He would probably have had considerably less to say about the inhabitants of what is now Scandinavia or Britain.
Perhaps Rubio should ask himself why he needs to travel halfway across the f**king planet, and thousands of years into the past, to find an ancient civilization to claim as his own, while an Iranian, at least, doesn't even have to leave Iran to find one. I find the entire business of bragging about what people accomplished 2500 years ago utterly ridiculous, but if we're going to play this idiotic game of civilizational ancestry, there are levels of absurdity: presenting ancient Greece as the exclusive ancestral inheritance of a modern "West" while barely acknowledging the historical world in which Greek civilization actually developed, is certainly one of them.
PS. THE TWO-STATE SOLUTION: ONE STATE FOR THOSE WHO INSIST ON PLAYING THIS FASCISTIC GAME OF ANCESTRAL NATIONALISM (WHETHER IRANIAN, ISRAELI, AMERICAN, EUROPEAN OR OTHERWISE), AND ANOTHER FOR THOSE WHO ACTUALLY WANT TO MOVE ON FROM THE 19TH CENTURY.
(YES, THAT'S WHERE WE'RE STILL STUCK. NOT IN ANCIENT HISTORY.)
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
این هم خلاصهای ۱۱ دقیقهای درباره #بازدارندگی_اتمی؛ برگرفته از گفتوگو با عبدالرسول #دیوسالار درباره ابعاد نظامی جنگ.
نسخه کامل
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E
در این ویدئو، خلاصهای از استدلالهای آقای دیوسالار درباره امکان نداشتن دستیابی ایران به #بازدارندگی_اتمی و اثر خطرناک و معکوس تلاش برای دست یافتن به آنرا قرار دادهایم. میتوانید به نسخه کامل هم مراجعه کنید.
دیدن نسخه کامل
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
هفت دلیل در توضیحات @Divsallar که چرا داشتن سلاح هستهای به خودی خود برای ایران بازدارندگی نمیاره:
۱. سلاح هستهای مانع جنگ متعارف نمیشود: داشتن بمب اتمی الزماً مانع درگیری متعارف نیست؛ همانطور که ذخایر هستهای روسیه مانع از حملات اوکراین به عمق خاک روسیه نشد و تسلیحات اسرائیل و آمریکا نیز مانع حملات موشکی به پایگاهها یا شهرهایشان نشد.
۲. بازدارندگی فقط کلاهک نیست، یک زنجیره است: کلاهک هستهای تنها بخش کوچکی از کار است؛ بخش اعظم آن متکی به زیرساختهای نظامی متعارف است که ایران فاقد آنهاست.
۳.فرماندهی و کنترل امن (C4ISR): خطوط ارتباطی و سامانههای انتقال دستور شلیک باید در برابر جنگ الکترونیک و حملات فلجکننده پابرجا بمانند.
۴. چشم و گوش اطلاعاتی و هشدار زودهنگام: برای اطلاع از حمله دشمن، نیاز به رادارها و ماهوارههای هشدار زودهنگام است؛ بخش زیادی از رادارهای پیشرفته و دیدِ استراتژیک ایران در درگیریها از کار افتادهاند.
۵. پدافند و دفاع موشکی استراتژیک: باید سامانههایی برای رهگیری تهدیدات در صدها کیلومتر فراتر از مرزها وجود داشته باشد تا از اثرات انفجار اتمی در خاک خودی جلوگیری شود.
۶. قابلیت اطمینان پرتابهها و سهگانه هستهای: موشکهای حامل کلاهک باید ضریب اطمینان بالای ۹۰ تا ۹۵ درصد داشته باشند و قدرتهای اتمی برای تضمین بقای ضربه دوم از زیردریایی و جنگندههای استراتژیک نیز بهره میبرند.
۷. تبدیل شدن به هدف مشروع (دعوت به حمله): ساخت تعداد محدودی کلاهک بدون این زنجیره دفاعی و هشداری، نه تنها بازدارندگی ایجاد نمیکند، بلکه طبق دکترین «کنترل خسارت»، طرف مقابل (آمریکا یا اسرائیل) را تشویق به وارد کردن ضربه پیشدستانه اتمی علیه این انبارها و تأسیسات میکند
بخش مهمی از گفتوگو به تحلیل بازدارندگی اتمی اختصاص دارد. #عبدالرسول_دیوسالار معتقد است امکان ندارد ایران در حال حاضر به بازدارندگی اتمی برسد و تلاش برای دستیابی به سلاح را دعوت از آمریکا برای حمله اتمی به ایران تلقی میکند.
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E
#سلاح_اتمی
در گفتگو با @Mfazeli114 با رویکردی فنی-نظامی توضیح دادم که چرا دستیابی ایران به سلاح اتمی یک تهدید امنیت ملی وجودی برای سرزمین ایران و حتی کل خاورمیانه است.
تنها مسیر صلح پایدار در خاورمیانه نه گسترش بازدارندگی اتمی بلکه تعهد همه به خلع سلاح و عدم اشاعه اتمی است.
بخش مهمی از گفتوگو به تحلیل بازدارندگی اتمی اختصاص دارد. #عبدالرسول_دیوسالار معتقد است امکان ندارد ایران در حال حاضر به بازدارندگی اتمی برسد و تلاش برای دستیابی به سلاح را دعوت از آمریکا برای حمله اتمی به ایران تلقی میکند.
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E
#سلاح_اتمی
برای مطالعه بیشتر در خصوص روندهای خلع سلام و منع گسترش تسلیحات اتمی که پایه بحث این پاکدست هست به گزارش اخیر من در سازمان ملل نگاهی بیاندازید
unidir.org/publication/non-p…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
آقای دیوسالار با استدلال فنی، مبتنی بر فقدان تجهیزات متعارف نظامی، معتقد است بازدارندگی اتمی ایران نشدنی است.
بسیار مایلم استدلالهای فنی - نه احساسی - طرفداران سلاح اتمی در برابر استدلالهای او را بدانم.
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E
بخش مهمی از گفتوگو به تحلیل بازدارندگی اتمی اختصاص دارد. #عبدالرسول_دیوسالار معتقد است امکان ندارد ایران در حال حاضر به بازدارندگی اتمی برسد و تلاش برای دستیابی به سلاح را دعوت از آمریکا برای حمله اتمی به ایران تلقی میکند.
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E
#سلاح_اتمی
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
🔎 What does the current turmoil in the Middle East mean for non-proliferation and disarmament in the region?
UNIDIR’s report by @Divsallar unpacks the implications and sums up three years of the Middle East WMD-Free Zone Project findings.
👉 unidir.org/NP-trends-ME
























