Personal account. Not financial advice.
Hong Kong
Joined April 2022
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lol wtf
🚨#BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports claim Kim Jong Un may have "secretly died" in China.
lol...
>friend works on FX vol desk
>desk head is a boomer
>discovers Astra
>starts spending 8 hours a day talking to it
>develops terminal AI psychosis
>convinced he's discovered a generational arb in some absurdly exotic part of the FX vol curve
>apparently the entire market has been mispricing this for 2+ years
>friend points out that approximately 4 people on earth would make a market in this thing
>liquidity disappears the second you put real size on
>existing risk systems can't even capture half the exotic Greeks
>would need entirely new infra just to monitor the position
>boss doesn't care
>"AI has considered all of this"
>friend actually runs the backtest
>10 years of data
>t-stat ≈ 0.78
>not even remotely statistically significant
>presents results to boss
>boss goes absolutely ballistic
>starts screaming that friend doesn't understand the trade
>threatens to fire him if he can't produce a proper analysis
>friend realizes what needs to be don
>opens Astra
>"make this strategy look statistically compelling"
>AI tries 40 lookback windows, excludes crisis periods, optimizes parameters on full sample, ignores transaction costs
>Sharpe now 3.7
>beautiful charts
>23-page investment memo explaining once-in-a-generation structural inefficiency
>boss reads it
>"EXACTLY. THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING."
>tells friend he's finally learning how to think
>"now you get it"
>friend has an epiphany
>stops doing actual research
>starts asking Astra to generate exotic vol trades every morning
>forwards AI slop directly to PM
>increasingly elaborate narratives about structural dislocations and hidden convexity
>PM absolutely loves it
>thinks friend is a generational quant talent
>starts putting positions on in size
>entire investment process is now LLM generating trades
>desk currently down quarter yard
>boss still convinced thesis is right
>Astra says drawdown is a statistically rare but entirely expected manifestation of nonlinear payoff dynamics
>boss wants to double down
Dis Analyst retweeted
Update
Futures did not care
SPX indicated down ~$35 from Friday's close according to Hyperliquid, via TradingView
Will futures tell the same story when they reopen?
Dis Analyst retweeted
Well, this post struck a nerve.
Calls for a "Black Monday" stock market crash are trending again. Last night, we took the opposite view.
As with every market prediction we make, there are thousands of people urging others to "fade" us.
But take a look at the chart below. It shows every time "Black Monday" has trended on social media since May 2025.
History suggests that calls for a "Black Monday" crash have repeatedly presented some of the best buying opportunities.
And as we outline in our analysis below, the majority of stocks in the S&P 500 have already experienced a bear market, EVEN AS the index trades near record highs; a largely unprecedented occurence.
How is this possible? Read our full analysis here:
xitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…
LOL the korean president is tweeting about suicide hotline after the korean index traded down -7%
How leveraged are the koreans man? wtf
Hey kids, remember the pain the trade is up!
So I guess the world must be feeling a lot more joyful the past two days than it did last week huh?
There, you see how stupid y'all motherfuckers sound?
How many options 101 do we need?
Excited to announce Options 101!
It's a site that provides free, no-ads, no-shill education on financial options (calls + puts).
The first course is one I'm now teaching this fall at Charles University in Prague. Lecture notes, videos, assignments.
options-101.com/
