👀 $ARB has already moved. $UNI hasn't. Same engine. Same chain. One of them is late. Today: $ARB +6.6% $UNI +3.4% This week: $ARB +12.3% $UNI +4.5%

Nasdaq (TECH) sitting inside the golden pocket and a huge volume node. Break this an it’s a global bear market quite honestly. Yields are now pricing in recession. We all need to pray. 🙏🏼

Great day for near:native, buyers have slowed and books have thinned to the downside. As predicted the defence of 5.3/5.4 remains strong. Been eating away at offers all day but they’re replaced fast. Lost about $10,000 notional trying to thin the upside but need price to drop to around 5.25/5.20 before trying again. I don’t expect a breakout now until BTC and ETH push higher. 19,000,000 Near traded today by my algos on both sides of the book. We give it another go tomorrow. swing longs are deep in profit from $3.9. Only a matter of time before Binance and HL supply moves out of the way.

Very very thin this weekend. near:native Almost nobody is there X exchange. I estimate the forced selling alone will push us through the biggest band at 5.30/5.40. Let's see.

monad:native community is now blaming me for its falling price and sending death threats in dms. @monad was a textbook short, called it how I saw it, was right, as usual. Luckily it’s a free market because this lot would have me strung up. Thanks for playing.

As discussed here the heavy defence of support caused a pop overnight. Expected at support. I wonder how quickly things retest? Asia fomo rallies retest the base almost 100%, the faster they retest support the more likely it is that I breaks. Let’s see, still short across the board on alts. Still negative on monad 😄

The skill barrier is gone. 23 minutes from idea to live bot. Not a toy, a real system pulling data and placing orders. The edge used to be who had the infrastructure. Now it's who has the clearest intent and the fastest feedback loop. Someone posted that a stranger built one with Claude this morning. That speed used to take a team and a budget. What happens when the cost of entry drops to zero and the failure rate stays the same? Markets haven't priced this yet.

Re-reading the trace every step. That's the KV cache thrashing problem in disguise, and it gets worse with variable-length tool outputs.

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1/12 🏛️ Crypto sold off INTO the Fed. BTC -3.3% yesterday. ETH -4.7%. Both at the bottom of a four-week range. I pulled every FOMC meeting since January 2022 — 37 of them — to see what normally happens next. 12 charts. Data only, not advice. 👇

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All in on $ETH 2366 maybe for one last tickle. See ya x

ETH just ran 8% in four hours while Bitcoin did 3.7%. Here is what it was, why ETH did nearly three times the move, and what the data says about it coming back into the range. 🧵 WHAT HAPPENED CPI landed at 12:30 UTC: headline 0.4, core 0.3. A hot core. The market sold it for about ten minutes, then reversed hard. ETH went from 2,458 before the print to a high of 2,666 and is 2,596 now, +5.6%. BTC went from 77,020 to 79,870 and is 78,640, +2.1%. That is the biggest four-hour volume bar on ETH since 21 August, 8.4 times the five-day average, and the first close above the 19-day range top at 2,533 since the range began. WHY IT WAS A SQUEEZE, NOT A BID We can measure it. In the four hours after the print, across Binance, OKX, Bybit, Bitget, Gate and Hyperliquid: • ETH: $198m of SHORTS liquidated, $20m of longs. • BTC: $84m of shorts liquidated, $40m of longs. Ten times more ETH shorts were force-closed than longs. A short liquidation is a forced buy. $198m of forced buying into a book that had been sitting in a 4% range for 19 days is a squeeze by definition. Why ETH and not BTC? Because ETH was where the shorts were. On Hyperliquid, whale shorts on ETH were $971m before the print against $859m of longs, and ETH funding had flipped negative on Wednesday, the first crowding signal against the shorts we flagged. The 2,620 pocket, $25m of real Hyperliquid short liquidations, was on our map this morning as the fuel. It lit. WHO IS POSITIONED NOW The squeeze has already changed hands: • Open interest on ETH went UP, not down. Hyperliquid $2.35bn → $2.75bn, +17%. Binance $5.7bn → $6.2bn. Shorts were closed and new longs replaced them and then some. That is chasing. • Binance retail on ETH: 70% long. Binance top accounts: went from 58% long to 53% during the move. The bigger accounts sold into it. • Hyperliquid whales: shorts grew from $971m to $1.14bn. They faded it. Fresh whale first-touch: $33m of longs opened, $4m of shorts, so some whales bought, but the book as a whole leaned into the short side. • Taker buy/sell on Binance ETH in the last hour: 1.27. Still aggressive buying. Retail long and adding, whales short and adding, open interest up 17% in three hours. That is the structure of a move that gets tested. DOES A MOVE LIKE THIS GIVE BACK? THE DATA We pulled every day since 2018 where ETH rose 4% or more, BTC was also up, and ETH did at least 2.5 times BTC's move. There are 119 of them. What happened in the next five days: • ETH's deepest dip inside those five days: median −6.7%. Every single one of the 119 dipped. • 82% dipped at least 2.4%. From 2,596, that is back to the range top at 2,533. • 69% dipped at least 4.5%. That is 2,480, the middle of the range and Saturday's options max pain. • 52% dipped at least 6.5%. That is 2,428, the bottom of the range. • Five days later ETH closed lower 67 of 119 times, median −0.9%. On the "ETH gives back the outperformance against BTC" part, the honest answer is: only partly. The ETH/BTC ratio five days later was a median −0.3%, negative 64 of 119 times. About a third gave back half the outperformance, one in six gave back all of it. In 2024 to 2026 it is stronger: the ratio was negative 22 of 30 times. So: relative to BTC, ETH mostly keeps the gain. In absolute terms, ETH dips a median of 6.7% within a week, and that dip reaches the top of the old range four times in five. THE SPECIFIC SHAPE OF TODAY We also looked at ETH's own 4h breakouts: bars that pushed 2% or more through the prior 20-day high on 3x volume. Ten since 2024. Half closed back below the old high within five days. The other half did not come back at all and ran 8% to 25%. Those winners all had one thing in common: small upper wicks. They closed near their highs. Today's bar has a 30% upper wick so far, the spike to 2,666 was sold, and the bar has not closed. If the 16:00 UTC close is above 2,600, that is the winners' shape. If it closes back under 2,566, the old 20-day high, it is the loser's shape and the range test is on. WHAT CAPS IT • 2,700: $26m of shorts liquidate. 2,800: $38m. Above 2,700 the squeeze has fresh fuel. Between 2,600 and 2,700 the pockets are thin, about $2m per $25. This is where a squeeze stalls. • Wednesday's Fed is 60% priced for a hike and did not move on a hot core. Since 2019, a rally into the meeting has been sold 3 out of 3 times in 2026. • 25 September expiry: 43% of all ETH options, max pain 2,150. The pull is down. WHAT WE EXPECT Base case, about 70%: ETH tests the top of the range at 2,533 within the week, and the mid at 2,480 more often than not. The squeeze was real, the fuel above 2,620 is used up, open interest is now long and crowded, and the biggest accounts sold into it. The other case, about 30%: a 4h close above 2,600 with the wick absorbed, and the 2,700 to 2,800 pockets pull price up before any test. That is the shape of the five breakouts that ran. Levels: 2,600 and 2,700 above. 2,533, 2,480, 2,428 below. The 16:00 UTC bar close decides which set matters first. Not advice.

Absolutely gutted $ZCASH hit my TP early. My gut was right ⬇️ Got a great entry at 1255 in the breakdown. Won’t be back for a while. Now focus remains on $XRP & $ETH shorts.