Joined November 2012
Replying to @DevonIanDon
Greg Egan short story "Glory" had some great bits and stays relevant for the current moment
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writing science fiction in far future given the ongoing acceleration seems more difficult unless it's premised on post-apocalyptic scenario with technological reversion.
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I can't find the Greg Egan post where he was discussing an open problem in math that he was still open in a story set far in the future, doubting that it would be solved before publication.
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fallow your dreams
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my kid fingered a Trinidad scorpion and both hands were burning all night. We tried every ai solution (dish soap, milk, yogurt, rubbing alcohol), then checked with poison control who recommended maalox. sleeping soundly now. why the models don't know?
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I am proud of the name he came up with for the homemade hot sauce
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I had been thinking that Jacob is biased in that he chose that position due to prior belief in risk and so might not reflect consensus within the company. Ideally they publish anon risk survey results from across company divisions. Is BD is scairt?
Sorry, but asking Jacob about AI extinction risk is like asking your AC guy about climate change. Not saying it's necessarily uninteresting or wrong per se but let’s keep things in perspective and hear from the full range of expertise across the ecosystem!
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I wish claims about engineered plant benefits linked to a fermi calculation. 3 ai models give different ranges for net ΔC but it's modest, and deployment will require huge breeding effort (and likely clear cutting) over a century. I still support the effort for diversity.
If this works, it's also a massive win for the climate. American chestnuts grow huge and grow fast, sequestering carbon. The entire US east coast used to be *covered* in them, before chestnut blight wiped them out.
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Any plant scientist working on climate solutions should check their assumptions up front. Too often the stories told to procure funding become blinders. The timelines for plant engineering are long, the money short, and your life is the size of your life.
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paul retweeted
If this works, it's also a massive win for the climate. American chestnuts grow huge and grow fast, sequestering carbon. The entire US east coast used to be *covered* in them, before chestnut blight wiped them out.
Awesome news today -- @sunyesf scientists are de-extincting lost American trees! @USDA just approved a genetically modified version of one of the great American trees, the American Chestnut, that went effectively extinct due to an Asian fungal blight introduced in 1904 that killed 3-4 BILLION trees (some 120 feet tall) by 1950. By adding in one gene from wheat to the American Chestnut genome, conservation scientists at @sunyesf have shown they can make the American Chestnut resistant to the fungal blight and revive and bring back this American classic. Let's finish this approval by @EPA and get these planted so our kids can visit these forests!!!
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Bunsen burner (hypothetically) works if particles settling velocity is < flame plume velocity. Paper used spray bottle, producing droplets ~50-500um while common contam (breath) .5-10um. drop speed scales with square of diameter...
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I would prefer to see a settle assay comparison with just ambient air (except not cause burner on 4 hours bad idea) or just someone passively breathing at the bench. Surprised by the response on bunsen twitter (also suprised that no one has evaluated them before)
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what percent of fires are started by lightning in conditions where satellite surveillance is not possible?
hot take but i think AI is literally on the verge of solving california’s megafire problem > california already has 1,000+ AI-monitored wildfire cameras that have spotted 900+ fires before the first 911 call > now the first 3 satellites in Google’s FireSat network just reached orbit to catch fires those cameras miss > FireSat is designed to spot fires just 5 x 5 meters, roughly 1/400th the size current wildfire satellites can detect > once complete, the network will scan the planet every 20 minutes > together, cameras below and satellites above are creating a 24/7 early-warning system for finding tiny fires before they can grow into megafires > but the missing piece is getting water there just as fast > in one california test, an autonomous Black Hawk found staged fires, flew to water and filled a 324-gallon bucket > it then calculated its own drop and extinguished it with no human in the loop > NASA is also building the traffic-control system needed to coordinate aircraft like this through darkness and heavy smoke > california already stations 70+ firefighting aircraft around the state, positioned to reach even remote fires within 20 minutes > the goal is to automate that entire chain > so AI finds the fire, launches the aircraft and fully extinguishes it within 10 minutes without waiting for a human > each system is designed to do that across an area larger than SF + oakland + san jose combined > scale that across california and dangerous fires get extinguished before they can become megafires yes... obviously california will always have natural fires and scaling this statewide might take a decade but i'm increasingly convinced the $100B-entire-community-destroying fires will soon be a thing of the past 🤞
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also the comments are a conflagration of trash.
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what happened to "you should work on plants"!? I read that as I was debating whether to switch to plants or stay in neuro. It reaffirmed my own thoughts and I spent the past 3 years working on plants.
People often ask me what they should work on. They are in medical school, or work as a software engineer, and they want to know what they ought to do in biology. This is an impossible question for me to answer! I don't know you; I'm not in anybody's head except my own. So I can throw out a bunch of ideas that I find interesting, but most of them won't be interesting to you. The best advice I can give is just to write. I don't mean writing a blog, or writing for others, but writing purely to think through ideas. Set yourself a challenge: Say "I will explore one idea per week — something that I think is interesting — and write a short piece about it." Then set aside 1-2 hours per day to explore that idea and write down what you find. Limit your energy on that idea to just one week; no more. I typically start by writing down a list of questions that I have about the idea. If I was keen to explore, say, bottlenecks in AI for antibody design, then I would start by writing out: "What is an antibody? How do people make them today? Who is using AI to design new antibodies?" Etc. Usually I write down 20-30 questions like this. Then, I spend time researching each question, one at a time. I answer them, write down my responses, and merge everything together into a single article at the very end. The benefit of this daily ritual is that you'll figure out (very fast) whether the idea holds your interest, and whether you want to dig deeper after the one-week "trial." I'd also recommend, while writing, that you reach out to people working on the idea. Send them a focused question, ask to meet, and use writing as a "forcing function" to meet other people. I try to email one new person every day. At the end of the one week, you don't need to publish the article. Most ideas will not feel that exciting to you, and so you can just quietly scrap them. (About 90% of ideas I explore are never published.) But for ideas that hold your attention, consider sending the article to people via email. Say, "Hey, I wrote about this idea. I'm interested in it, and wanted you to read it." Every job I've had in my life has been downstream of writing about an idea and sending it to other people. (I had a mentor at MIT who did a similar thing. Every Saturday, he wrote down three ideas and sent them to influential people. After a few months, he received donations from philanthropists to help grow his new lab.) If you write a little bit every day, you'll quickly find an idea that holds your interest. You will also have used writing as a starting point to talk to people who are working on that idea. How much further is it to now fundraise for the idea? To start a company around it? You've already done a lot of the early work, and are well on your way to figuring out what you ought to be doing.
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i chat with gemini more than others but their cached memory is gpt3 level. I've tried to opt out of personalization but it continues to callback to other chats, generating nonsensical pastiche notes like this one when I asked about efficiency of overdiluted pcr mastermixes.
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I don't know what you call this type of thread that can only be followed back through time, but it's great and this post is simultaneously the beginning of the series, end of repost path, and middle of dates.
The USACE Bay Model: perfect for your fiftieth date
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Hollyhock House: perfect for your 69th date
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