
Amateur Economist | Nodler | Software @alphaarcade @lofty_ai
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Joined December 2024
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The issue here is not the number of validators, but the staked dollar amount.
The security (and decentralization) of a chain is determined by how much capital it would take to own 90% of the staked token (enough to change/control protocol code)
By these metrics, it would take ~160mil to buy and control the network (w assumption that price is constant when buying, which is obviously not true)
Why would institutions and sovereign nations put billions and trillions of dollars of value on a network that is secured by ~160m dollars?
They won’t, and is why Silvio is building a chain that doesn’t require token price as a security input
$ALGO price is directly linked to network security, further we go down the less secure the network is
🛡️ @AlgoFoundation is now the #4 most decentralized blockchain by validator count
With 1,542 validators, Algorand now ranks fourth among all blockchains tracked by Chainspect
📊 chainspect.app/dashboard/dec…
New Midterms section in @alphaarcade to help you express your views AND be more informed on the current leaders in each race
Here's the current odds for who is going to control the house and senate after the midterms. Do you think anything is mispriced??
Learn more: alphaarcade.com/predictions/…
Ooof.. PPI of 1.3% MoM and 6.3% YoY is crazy work
Say goodbye to growth stock valuations and the middle class
It’s almost like widespread tariffs, uncontrollable government spending (BBB), and a foreign war that creates a supply shock of oil causes inflation…
Who would’ve guessed
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 September CPI inflation rises to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%.
Core CPI inflation rises to 2.6%, also above expectations of 2.5%.
This marks the third highest US inflation reading since September 2023.
Headline CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month, up from 0.4% in August, while core CPI rose 0.3%, matching the prior month.
Gasoline prices surged 9.1% and accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase.
The energy index jumped 5.2% on the month and is up 20.4% year-over-year.
Shelter rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% over the past year.
Food was unchanged on the month and up 2.5% year-over-year.
US inflation remains elevated.
Hey @TheStalwart !!
Heard you talking about how you might try to make an agentic trading bot on Kalshi. You should try it on @alphaarcade. It's all on chain and much much easier than doing it on Kalshi. Here is the sdk: github.com/phara23/alpha-sdk…
Hmu if you got questions :D
This is a problem..
And will only get worse as the frontier models are increasingly closed off to the public due to "safety" reasons.
Maybe the safest option long term is for everyone to have these _dangerous_ frontier models. Similarly to how the idea of mutual destruction limits the use of nuclear weapons when multiple countries have them.
“Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results.”
“My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies.”
"IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster)."
Ummmmmmmm….. concerning??
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.
Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).
Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.
IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).
Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.
Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?
Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)
Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.
Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.
I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).
Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.
Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.
The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
How are flacon lattice sigs holding up in this new mathematical superintelligence age??
Any chance we see new theorems/algorithms that could “break” lattice cryptography in flacon sigs and change initial security assumptions?
@ChrisPeikert
Jake retweeted
We are SO exited to announce:
Sign in with Google, Apple, or Face ID.
Trade without wallets, seed phrases, or extensions.
We now abstract away the blockchain completely so the account stays yours, and the experience stays simple.
Sign in with Google, Apple, or Face ID.
Trade without wallets, seed phrases, or extensions.
@alphaarcade now abstracts away the blockchain so the account stays yours, and the experience stays simple.
With all this instability in the world it might be time to start accumulating hard assets like oil, food, land, and tokens secured by cryptographic proofs
Top Overnight News
Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed. RTRS
Vladimir Putin has instructed his military leaders to abandon the rules of war, prompting a steep increase in strikes on civilian targets amid a major push to regain the advantage in the conflict, according to intelligence intercepted by Kyiv. FT
Governments around the world are running out of room to shield consumers from higher energy prices resulting from the Iran war and other crises, with fuel subsidies potentially costing more than $1 trillion this year, a United Nations study found. BBG
World food prices rose in September, as transportation disruptions and weather concerns limited supplies and lifted prices for several crop-based commodities, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said. WSJ
Amazon’s exploring a deal to shift about $8 billion of high-end Nvidia chips into a sale-leaseback SPV vehicle backed by outside investors to help strengthen its balance sheet. FT
European countries are in crisis talks over the release of diesel stocks, as the US threatens them with a diesel export ban unless they release strategic reserves of the oil product. FT
Tokyo’s key inflation gauge rose sharply as the effects of some temporary government measures faded, backing the Bank of Japan’s stance on continuing to raise the benchmark rate after authorities accelerated the pace of policy normalization. BBG
Eurozone CPI for Sept ran hot on the headline (+3.8% vs. the Street +3.7% and vs. +3.2% in Aug) and was inline on core (+2.5% vs. +2.4% in Aug). BBG
Trump posted "Republicans in the Senate have to get moving on what I call the “No More Changing of Clocks Act,” officially known as The Sunshine Protection Act".
Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 80k in September, slightly below consensus of +88k. On the positive side, the level of layoffs remains low and big data indicators of job growth picked up sequentially. On the negative side, September payroll growth has tended to underperform its recent trend when Labor Day is later in the month—like it was this year—and last month’s sharp increase in nonfarm payrolls was boosted by outsized increases in leisure and hospitality and local educational services payrolls that we do not expect to repeat. GS Research
BofA Flow Show (w/e 30th September): USD 18.8bln to bonds, 15.8bln to stocks, 0.9bln to crypto, 0.7bln to gold, 118.0bln from cash on quarter-end; Bull and Bear indicator 8.8 (prev. 9.3).
Sure.. but you skipped the important question.
Why are sovereign nations decreasing their US treasury holdings and what affect does that have on inflation/USD?
If you can answer that question you may rethink the benefits/trajectory of the whole stablecoin ecosystem long term
I dont get how intelligence can be artificial. Intelligence is intelligence, knowledge is knowledge
Should be called "Generated Intelligence" or "Computed Intelligence"
Jake retweeted
We’re excited to announce our new whitepaper outlining the future of the $alpha protocol and our short-term plans to apply for the federal regulatory approvals required to offer regulated prediction market products to US users.
















