Asst. prof. @UniLeiden. Analyst @CrisisGroup. @Sino_NK & fmr. @The_Daily_NK. Dilettante translator. RT≠endorsement.

Seoul, Republic of Korea
Joined March 2012
Christopher Green retweeted
My department - @ucdpolitics - is hiring two PERMANENT posts in any area of politics, intl relations, theory, or development studies. Please apply if you are on the academic job market & if you're not please spread the word! Deadline NOV 9 my.corehr.com/pls/ucdrecruit…
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Excellent news, congratulations!
Welcome to Their Excellencies, Marc de Bourcy, Ambassador of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Joo-yeon Ellen Kang, Ambassador of the Republic of Korea, and Ossama Elhady, Ambassador of the Arab Republic of Egypt, who presented their Letters of Credence to President Connolly today.
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Welcome if true, most certainly.
「가디언(Guardian)」의 10.6자 “Fuel from South Korea being shipped to Russia as Ukraine war grinds on(우크라이나 전쟁 장기화 하 한국발 대러 연료 운송)” 제하 기사 관련 아래와 같이 설명드립니다. 「가디언」보도에서 언급된 상업용 경유, 항공유 등 석유 정제제품은 우리의 대러 수출통제 품목에 해당하지 않습니다. 따라서, 「가디언」 측도 보도했듯이 우리 항구에서의 석유 정제제품 선적은 우리 국내법 위반에 해당하지 않습니다. 아울러, 경유 등 한국산 연료의 수출여부도 확인된 사실이 아닙니다. 또한, 선박이 신고서상 최종 목적국으로 바로 이동하지 않고 다른 국가로 이동했다는 사실만으로 목적지 허위 신고 혐의가 있다고 단정하기는 어렵습니다. 이에 대해, 우리 정부는 선박의 실제 운항 경로, 신고서상 목적국 상이 여부와, 상이하다면 그 이유 등을 추가 확인하여 국내법 위반 여부를 판단할 예정입니다. 우리 정부는 「가디언」에서 보도된 선적 사례 관련 추가 정보를 확인하고 있으며, 확인 결과 우리의 법령 위반 사실이 확인될 경우 법에 의거하여 조치할 계획입니다. 우리 정부는 앞으로도 국제사회의 책임있는 일원으로서 대러 수출통제를 엄정하게 이행하고, 우회 수출 방지를 위한 점검 노력을 강화하겠습니다. 더 자세한 내용은 보도설명자료(링크)를 참고해주시기 바랍니다. mofa.go.kr/www/brd/m_24815/v…
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Christopher Green retweeted
1/ A few clarifications, as some coverage is reading the government's statement as a rebuttal of our story on shipments from Korea to Russia. It isn't. The government is saying there were no "exports" but it has never said there were no "shipments".
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Christopher Green retweeted
🧵Good article👇, but IMO, ideology is playing an underdiscussed, background condition role in the S Korea-Ukraine flap - So far explanations for the Lee Jae-Myung administration’s quite sharp position on UKR have focused on political (falling poll numbers),legal (NKs' unique 1
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Christopher Green retweeted
The core of the issue is the allegation that Ukraine broke some expectation of confidentiality. This just isn't true. FM Cho was briefing the transfer to the Korean media in June. This isn't a difficult case. South Korea is in the wrong.
Proportionality should also account for the implications of disclosing the repatriation of N. Korean POWs to S. Korea: its impact on the POWs & their families, stability on the Korean Peninsula, and future armistice negotiations with N. Korea involving the U.S. and/or S. Korea.🧵
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Added to @SheenaGreitens points, this further exposes the South Korean response as unrealistic and wildly disproportionate. And, thus, implies domestic drivers of Seoul’s outrage.
Replying to @SheenaGreitens
Interesting but tangential. The Ukrainians openly had to talk to the DPRK about prisoners because they follow the Geneva Convention. There's no reasonable, lawful, expectation of secrecy. It was also all over the RoK media long before the transfer.
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And others have written up the domestic drivers so I don’t have to. xitter.cf/letsarmukr/status/2106…
The Seoul-Kyiv story right now is about a South Korean political class tearing itself apart. Ukraine serves as the ammunition in that fight. The demand from Kim Byung-joo that Ukraine apologize and that Seoul review its 100 million dollars in humanitarian aid is factional noise dressed up as foreign policy. The claim is that Ukraine broke a summit agreement and published false information. The actual trigger is the transfer of North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea. Parts of the South Korean establishment panicked because of this. Look at the sequence. Yoon Suk Yeol, whatever his domestic legal situation, built a real aid track with Kyiv. In July 2023 he visited Ukraine during the war, met Zelenskyy, went to Bucha and Irpin, and announced the Peace and Solidarity Initiative. The numbers were concrete: humanitarian aid raised to 150 million dollars, demining equipment, ambulances, a reconstruction fund, and a scholarship named after both presidents. At the G20 he added 300 million dollars for 2024 and a long-term reconstruction commitment above 2 billion dollars. Seoul also doubled its contribution to the NATO trust fund for Ukraine. The Export-Import Bank of Korea provided a 100 million dollar loan. This is straightforward diplomacy. The state invests in Ukraine as a security partner. Then the domestic rupture came. Yoon declared martial law in December 2024, was removed, and Lee Jae-myung won the June 2025 election. Yoon loyalists now claim that election was rigged with Chinese interference, that Lee is illegitimate, and that his real loyalty runs toward Pyongyang and Beijing. Lee's approval rating is cited near 10 percent. Whether you accept that number or not, the political environment in Seoul is toxic enough that any Ukraine-related decision becomes a proxy war between factions. The North Korean POW issue is where this explodes. Ukraine sent two captured North Korean soldiers to South Korea. For Kyiv, this move serves humanitarian and strategic goals. These men would have been executed if returned to the North. For Seoul, accepting them is politically radioactive. Lee's critics argue he wanted to quietly repatriate them, the way Moon Jae-in sent a North Korean defector back in 2019, where he was later killed. The public disclosure by Ukraine destroyed any quiet option. Now Lee's camp has to perform outrage to protect itself from accusations that it is soft on Pyongyang. The demand for an apology follows this logic. Ukraine broke a sacred summit agreement. It is that Ukraine made visible a choice Seoul did not want to make openly. The Democratic Party lawmakers now attacking Ukraine are not defending South Korean sovereignty. They are managing their own vulnerability to Chinese and North Korean pressure. The strategic stakes are bigger than one diplomatic spat. If North Korean soldiers learn that surrender can lead to safety in the South, the coercive hold of the Kim regime weakens. Those soldiers were sold to Russia for money, with their families held hostage. Escape becomes thinkable only when a destination is visible. Ukraine created that visibility. This matters to the whole war and to bilateral relations. Ukrainian media should treat the aid review threat as a domestic South Korean faction trying to use Ukraine as a shield. The Korean public is not monolithic. The accounts screaming in Korean on social media are often Chinese propaganda bots. The real question is whether Seoul's institutions can separate national interest from factional survival. Ukraine should keep talking with the parts of the South Korean state that understand why a democracy cannot quietly send people back to be murdered, and it has every right to save prisoners from execution without apology. The noise from Lee's camp serves only as noise. It is fear that issues a press release.
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He got schooled time and time again for an hour and five minutes, in fact. Extraordinary.
This is absolutely priceless. Tucker just states as fact that Russia has a much larger economy than the UK, is completely wrong and gets schooled.
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My personal favourite was when he asked what the UK unemployment rate was in 1945, and was politely reminded that “everybody was in the military.”
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Christopher Green retweeted
Replying to @SheenaGreitens
Interesting but tangential. The Ukrainians openly had to talk to the DPRK about prisoners because they follow the Geneva Convention. There's no reasonable, lawful, expectation of secrecy. It was also all over the RoK media long before the transfer.
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Christopher Green retweeted
The dollar value of Korea's exports has basically doubled -- and the September Korean export numbers suggest that Korea's surplus still hasn't peaked. A little hard to believe, but clearly true.
The vast majority of the surge in AI-related capex value is imported. Good for growth in Asia, but not so much in the US.
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Christopher Green retweeted
South Korea’s 78th Armed Forces Day ceremony on October 1 featured new footage of the Hyunmoo-5 (현무-5) high-power ballistic missile in a promotional video. This marks the third consecutive year that the missile has appeared during the Armed Forces Day parade. However, it was officially labeled only as a “surface-to-surface missile” (지대지미사일) during the event. The Hyunmoo-5 is reportedly designed to carry an 8-ton-class conventional warhead, intended to strike hardened underground facilities such as North Korea’s underground command centers. Former Agency for Defense Development (ADD) Director Ahn Dong-man said in an interview that: “The destructive power of a bomb comes from kinetic energy, which increases with mass and the square of velocity. The Hyunmoo-5 is known to carry a warhead weighing around 8–9 tons, while the U.S. GBU-57 bunker buster weighs approximately 12 tons. The GBU-57 is dropped by a bomber within the atmosphere, whereas the Hyunmoo-5 is a ballistic missile that is boosted by a rocket beyond the atmosphere before rapidly descending at high speed. Since it reaches a much higher altitude, it gains greater gravitational acceleration during its descent. The Hyunmoo-5 can be considered to have one of the highest levels of destructive power among non-nuclear warheads in the world.” source: yna.co.kr/view/AKR2026080313… & youtu.be/fDYRQyqHkZs?t=2995
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There is blame on both sides here, but the style and manner of the South Korean leadership’s response is a disgrace.
The diplomatic spat between Ukraine and South Korea is intensifying. S Korean president says the country will take action unless Ukraine formally apologise.
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The contention that responses are rooted in anxiety and competition rather than excitement is not to be underestimated here, but it is nevertheless fascinating to compare Korea with other advanced economies. ft.com/content/2c5e6862-65b6…
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Christopher Green retweeted
I have been appointed as the BBC's Seoul Correspondent, covering the Korean Peninsula. It’s an honour to take this on from @jeanmackenzie, who set the standard here.
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Christopher Green retweeted
dedollarization? what dedellarization. more evidence showing Russia is still buying and selling in the dollar system -- including purchase of Chinese batteries for drones via a global shadow financial network using UAE dirham etc pegged to USD ft.com/content/fb42c5dd-1550…
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Christopher Green retweeted
Facing major domestic challenges, including political polarisation and demographic decline, and with its strategic position becoming more precarious, South Korea should rest its strategy for preventing escalation on two pillars. Our report explains more. crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac…
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