@DeepValueBagger

$13M NW | fatFIRE | Peter Lynch 2.0. Long term investor, chasing deep value baggers. Ex-Senior Exec Tech/SV. Building agentic equity research platform. e/acc

Bahamas
Joined February 2024
DVB Year to Date Performance: 330% I haven't seen other big account sharing YTD. So I guess I'll share mine ๐Ÿคฃ 330% YTD, taken a few minutes ago. I have a couple other accounts, all above 125%-150% range. Three months ago, big accounts were parading their YTD & promoted 30 AI companies solving bottleneck, you know the big stack on every sector. People asked me about many companies. I researched, I rejected almost every single one of them. I bought a few and sold for small profit. I held the rest on my conviction and accumulated more $VOO On the surface, it looks like I'm not working hard as others. Maybe I made it and don't want to hustle as much. Maybe I'm haven't researched all the companies other people are talking (No, I did). Maybe I don't understand them (No, I did). But I understand something few didn't. The entire AI sector is correlated, the market ran hot, too much easy money has been made, oversized bet or even leverage will quickly evaporate the gains. I sat, I waited. I didn't buy the dip. I knew it was going to take months. I know the market has its way to trick you every turn. The person that did nothing on the market kept his gain. I sold off $COHR $VRT $BE $CRDO and moved them to $VOO. I saw a big $RKLB account who called me dumb once, got liquidated. I sold before $SPCX IPO to derisk, and reconcentrate on high conviction bet. The lesson I want you to leave with is, doing less is actually difficult and get more result in the long run. You really have you review Warren Buffett's concept of the punch card picks. There aren't 500 opportunities out there. There are very few of them and you have to focus on high quality picks, and fewer actions. The more action you make, the more mistakes you will make.
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The broker reached out me and asked whether i want to sell the private stock I held for about a year because its 10% up. They sold it to me at ATH and charged me 10% fees. fuck no, go away.
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Hedge funds are just index underperformer with extra steps. I'm picking one of the top hedge fund here, Citadel's Wellington. Typically they take 20% of your profit off the top in addition to management fees. The capital gain tax is pass through you because hedge fund are typically setup as limited partner or LLC. Since hedge fund has high turn over from trading, you'll be paying mostly short term capital gain in 20% to 40%. In 2025, not only they underperformed SPY (pre-tax) with 10% vs 17%. Post tax, you're looking at 8 to 6% returns. To be fair, they did well against $SPY for 2022, but long term, they still lose out. But let's take a look at the high return like 38%, your post tax return is only 22%. Now Citadel is very exclusive to clients that get introduced, and only accept very infrequently because of their known "skill" level. The rest of the funds will massively underperform Citadel, imagine that! What a clever scam to take all the fees from their clients.
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An important topic I want to share for a while now. The word "investing" doesn't accurate describe the activity I do. It sounds like putting money in multiple place and expect return on investment. Nowadays, it's used so loosely that the word itself has lost its meaning. I watched an interview from Elon Musk where he is asked what he thought about Warren Buffett did and so forth. Elon Musk refined it further with the word "capital allocator". If you are not paying attention on this nuance difference, then you will completely miss a big light bulb moment. Elon describes the job of the capital allocator is the process of moving capital where it is needed, such as bottlenecks, and product and service that deserves capital. That's exactly how I wanted to describe investing. It is a selective process to determine who needs capital. I recommend spending time to ponder on this new term, capital allocator, and come up with a list of things you see in the company that deserves capital or does not deserve capital.
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Classic deterministic investor response. I can't predict when volcano happens, but I don't want to live next to one. Same reason I don't live in high crime-rate neighborhood. Manage your risks wisely.
Replying to @DeepValueBagger
declaring that means something out of your control, like a natural disaster, not management's failure to budget.
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The risks of building datacenter will get priced into the lower performer in the coming months....
BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls -5% after declaring "force majeure" on a massive data center being built in New Mexico. Oracle has reportedly made the move in order to shield itself from rapidly rising expenses on the project.
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Jeez How many lawsuits does $NVO have? I'm not investing in drama...
๐Ÿ“ข ๐‰๐”๐’๐“ ๐ˆ๐: Viatris sues Novo Nordisk over generic Wegovy patent dispute - $NVO $VTRS
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My $dell position
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Here's the big annotated price chart of my entire position in $TE. Big entry 30,000 shares at @ $3.66 and sold $7 ish. I overlayed my commentary along it. I started to question the risks in Feb, announced my exit on April 1. Total profit $196k. $86k from CSP $14k from covered calls $95k from shares.
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$SNPS | HSBC ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฆ๐˜†๐—ป๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐˜€๐˜†๐˜€ from ๐—›๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ to ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜†, raises PT to $๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ from $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฌ (Correction)
$SNPS | HSBC ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ Synopsys, Inc. from ๐—›๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ to ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜†, PT $๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ
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Is it me or the market is bullish because President Trump and President Xi Jinping having bro time? USA & China can be partners and market go up..
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People still say I'm lucky despite my success. If you believe it's luck, then you can roll the dice on next trade, chase some financial guru promising 100x return, pay for that $1000 private lesson, join some investment cult, or buy that "undervalued" penny stock. I'm guilty some of that in the past but I discovered there was an edge in the market. It's no secret. Peter Lynch has documented it well in his books, but to truly understand it is a different matter. The reason why few can grasp it because there are hundred of factors that goes into play, half of it is psychology - your emotion holding you back, and the factors itself is non-deterministic, in other words, there is a probability assigned to it. It means that what the factor that influence the stock may OR may not happen, and it could happen tomorrow or 6 months from now. If you can't grasp non-deterministic factors over long period time, you'll be spending time watching the price tomorrow and conclude that I'm wrong. Well a lot told me that I'm wrong when I warned them about $EOSE $TE $BMNR $MSTR $HIMS $IREN $OPEN $QS $KTOS and the list goes on and on. For example, on $EOSE, I said huge risk to deliver, and raise capital because it's a high capex business. That was when $13, rising to $15. Today it's $3.30. Many people kept checking the price around $13-$15 and said it's not a problem....and therefore i'm wrong. Well I have no gift of predicting tomorrow price, but the thing about risk is, it can happen tomorrow or 6 months... and usually if you pull long enough, I'm usually right. I'm wrong sometimes like $ZETA which I'm fine admitting. My goal is not to get 100% right, but to get mostly right, and when I'm really confident I'm right, I bet really big. I don't bet on 50/50. If this resonates with you, I talk a lot more about investing in my paid subscription group. Investing is more than just buying and selling. Seriously.
I bought $INTC when it was $20, $RKLB at $4, $HOOD at $20, and $MU when it was $200 and $450 and you're still saying i chase momo. maybe i'm ahead of the trend until you find out.
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