Trading is a fun game. Can I actually make money? Working on it...

On a boat
Joined May 2021
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Every important turn in a market is a transfer of ownership between two kinds of money that behave nothing alike. On one side sits patient capital, the pension funds, insurers, and large managers who answer to time horizons measured in years and who get paid for buying assets below what they are worth and waiting. On the other side sits reactive capital, the retail crowd that buys what feels safe and sells what feels scary, that reads the headline and acts on the feeling the headline produces. Every buy or sell is a game between players with different patience, different information, and opposite incentives. Patient capital accumulates at the bottom, buying the shares that have frightened retail, and it sells at the top, to those confident retail crowd that are buying drunk on greed. And it makes sense. Institutions love moving under the radar. A large buyer physically cannot build a position of size in a quiet, rising market, because their own buying would push the price up against them and they would pay more with every share they took. They need a crowd of sellers large enough to hide inside, and the only time that crowd appears is panic. So the deepest fear in the market is the precise condition the patient buyer has been waiting for, and the euphoria at the top is the exit they need to unload into. That's how institutions play. Opposite to retail.
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There's 2 pains in life 1) Pain of regret 2) Pain of discipline and hard-work Choose your pain 🤲
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6 LAWS OF TIME THAT WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK HOW YOU SPEND EVERY SINGLE DAY: 1. Hofstadter's Law: Everything takes longer than you think, even when you account for the fact that everything takes longer than you think. Stop planning for the perfect version of your day. Plan for the real one. 2. Carlson's Law: Interrupted work is not just slower ,it is fundamentally worse. Every time you switch tasks your brain pays a switching cost. Deep focus is not a luxury. It is the only way real work gets done. 3. Illich's Law: After a certain point, more time spent on a task makes it worse not better. The person who works twelve hours straight is not more productive. They are just more stubborn. 4. The Law of Forced Efficiency: You will always be most productive in the hour before a deadline. Not because you work better under pressure but because you finally stop perfecting and start finishing. 5. Laborit's Law: Humans naturally do the easiest and most pleasurable tasks first. The work that would change your life sits at the bottom of the list every day. Flip the list. Do the hard thing first. 6. Parkinson's Law of Triviality: Teams spend more time debating small unimportant decisions than large critical ones. The smaller the stakes, the longer the argument. Protect your attention from the trivial. It will consume everything if you let it.
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Drawdown from ATH: $BTC: -58% $TLT: -51% Rewrite the rulebook, it's about to get weird.
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Reminder on staying safe •Separate laptop for Crypto •Gnosis Safe for your hardware wallet •Make a secure VPN using our guide, don't buy a VPN service •Use a password manager for websites •Authy not Google for 2FA •block malware with hosts and uBlock Links to guides below
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Just went through my bookmarks on Twitter and wanted to share some of the good reads with you. 10 threads about crypto & investing:
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Re: USD Wrecking Ball World Tour & The CNY Facade. Lots of hyperventilation lately over the “weaponization of USD”/imminent doom of USD hegemony as a result. While the de-dollarization narrative is seductive, the USD remains the “cleanest dirty shirt" around the world. (THREAD)
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How to Create More Luck:
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1/ There are no other constitutional rights in substance without freedom to transact Being meaning to write this for 6 months, but the Canadian response to the trucker protests is illustrating this so vividly, that today is the day.
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If #bitcoin goes to $48k+ this month, I will send everyone who retweets this $50. I said what I said. #btc
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wHaT bEaR mArkEt This thread is an assortment of mental models and frameworks I've developed and relied on throughout the span of my trading career, with some personal anecdotes mixed in. I will continue to update this thread as I identify new trading maxims w/ time.
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$BTC at 35k How did we get here and what possibly comes next? A thread on macro, bitcoin on-chain and derivatives 👇👇
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Where does the central banker keep their money printer? In debasement
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