David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷

Statistics publications, preprints, software, and reviews davidbickel.com/ #statistics #evidence #articles #publications #preprints #reviews #software #genomics #FDR #LFDR #NHST

D. R. Bickel, “The Bayes e-value: Testing by betting given a prior probability of the null hypothesis,” Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice 20, 110 rdcu.be/fxvPE

D. R. Bickel, “Testing trained models as null hypotheses to assess their absolute performance, with applications to testing neural networks as null hypotheses,” Handbook of Statistics, Volume 55: Neural Networks (Elsevier, 2026). da.gd/bbnfa

D. R. Bickel, “Evidential model averaging: Combining p-values and Bayes factors to propagate uncertainty about statistical methods and their assumptions,” Statistical Science. da.gd/kLO7Y

For Exercise 10 at the end of chapter 5 of davidbickel.com/genomics/ : Download the ESM by following bit.ly/4837evl & then scroll down to the link under the heading "Electronic Supplementary Materials". #supplements #GDAFDREBM

Bickel, D. R. (2025). The marginal e-value: Testing by betting given a prior probability of the null hypothesis. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15677… Slides presented: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17281… Christian Robert's remarks on the talk & summary of the workshop: bit.ly/4o4VpuT

Bickel, D. R. (2025). Bayesian model checking by betting: A game-theoretic alternative to Bayesian p-values and classical Bayes factors. The American Statistician. doi.org/10.1080/00031305.202…

Fact-finding by betting: Resolution of the Blue Bus, Gatecrasher, and Prison Riot paradoxes of proof without neglecting base rates zenodo.org/records/15644665

D. R. Bickel, "Credible sets that coherently test point null hypotheses of nonzero prior probability, with applications to calibrated p-values and standard confidence intervals," working paper, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1528846, doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15288…

Bickel, D. R. (2024). An evidential semantics for possibility theory with generalizations. Zenodo. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14583786 doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14583…

“The propagation and reduction of uncertainty left unquantified by confidence intervals, p-values, neural network predictions, posterior distributions, and other statistical results,” J. Ver., Val. & Uncertainty Quantification 9, 031002 (2024) asmedigitalcollection.asme.o…

D. R. Bickel, “Bayesian and frequentist inference derived from the maximum entropy principle with applications to propagating uncertainty about statistical methods,” Statistical Papers 65, 5389-5407 (2024) rdcu.be/dSbFF

David R. Bickel’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Safe Testing’ by Grünwald, De Heide and Koolen academic.oup.com/jrsssb/adva…

Errata: Interval estimation, point estimation, and null hypothesis significance testing calibrated by an estimated posterior probability of the null hypothesis Bickel (2023) tandfonline.com/eprint/KMZGQ…

Coherent testing and safe testing zenodo.org/records/10564876

David R. Bickel's contribution to the Discussion of "Safe testing" by Peter Grünwald, Rianne de Heide and Wouter Koolen zenodo.org/records/10558176

Bayesian model checking by betting: A game-theoretic alternative to Bayesian p-values and classical Bayes factors zenodo.org/records/10445864

A small-sample Bayesian information criterion that does not overstate the evidence, with an application to calibrating p-values from likelihood-ratio tests doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10155…

The p-value interpreted as the posterior probability of explaining the data: Applications to multiple testing and to restricted parameter spaces - Sankhya A full-text access to a view-only version: rdcu.be/dp3CA paywall HTML & PDF versions: link.springer.com/article/10…

Disjunctive multiple testing: Unified adjustments of p-values, Bayes factors, false discovery rates, false sign rates, etc. zenodo.org/records/10011790

Fiducialize statistical significance: transforming p-values into conservative posterior probabilities and Bayes factors tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…