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Founder Six Degrees Out (SDO)
Joined February 2012
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I have worked with / for the Government since 2018 - I obviously know much more than I can say, but one thing I can say about the exit negotiations is that what we started in 2018 is now accomplished.
In this deal brokered by Qatar, Turkey and Brazil, with Qatar leaning on the USG was the best of the available scenarios on the table.
This deal originated in August. For the USG and Trump, this was his best, least costly way to walk out of his corner, cornering himself with the naval assets he deployed and the entire Narco nonsensical BS. I'm glad that they threw Maria Corina Machado under the bus; she has, as Trump said, no viable chance to govern. Maria Corina Machado must have been delusional, calling for armed intervention, thinking that would put her in power.
The USG has basically implemented a Qatari-engineered plan by providing military logistics capabilities, but the notion that this is a USG stroke of genius is absolutely false and misleading.
The USG agreed to this deal because it serves its oil interests. They have no interest whatsoever in democracy or in transitioning to a democratically elected government.
This deal with Maduro out of the equation and keeps the rest of the regime intact, allowing for US oil giants (Chevron, Conoco-Phillips, Exxon etc), in theory, to land wheels next week and be operational in no time.
The opposition has always been irrelevant to the USG, mostly because they don't control the armed forces, law enforcement, harbours, airports, borders, or the judiciary apparatus. This doesn't destabilise the country or the region; this was a predictable nothing burger.
Let's stand by and see how things unfold over the next weeks and months.
I wish Delcy, Jorge Rodriguez, and the rest of the remaining team all the best of luck making some incremental changes now.
As having been part of this since 2018 they can now put a portrait of me on the wall. Lol.
GOP - @realDonaldTrump Ukraine and @ZelenskyyUa has to do what best for Ukraine not whats best for the US Mid Terms, The USG have no agency in this war anymore - the US have sided with Russia against Ukraine and the EU - just sod off.
@CatoFP's @katherinet57 recently discussed the energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia on @NewsNation Live.
Watch the full interview here:
cato.org/multimedia/media-hi…
What to look for in Over the Horizon 2027 inspired by the annual CFR conflict risk prediction report. By Six Degrees Out - all rights reserved.
The CFR survey of conflict risk rated war over Iran “moderately likely” for 2026.
It began on 28 February. That war killed Ali Khamenei, closed the Strait of Hormuz, brought Iranian strikes onto Gulf soil and put the Houthis at war with Saudi Arabia. Lebanon and Yemen, both second-tier in the survey, became wars too.
The survey called Venezuela and Ukraine correctly. It underrated the Middle East.
Over the Horizon 2027 is Six Degrees Out’s view of the year ahead. Same format, different lens: impact on Europe and Ukraine, energy and trade, the Gulf and the rules-based order. Washington is scored as an actor.
Top tier for 2027:
The US–Iran war resumes at full scale after the 3 November midterms.Our war model puts a major escalation within 30 days at 33%. Watch Kharg, the leadership and Pickaxe Mountain. Hormuz becomes a standing toll. Tehran already runs the strait as a permission regime.
A toll costs it little, and Indonesia has floated one for Malacca.Saudi Arabia runs out of export routes, and Egypt is drawn in. Hormuz, the East–West pipeline and the Red Sea have each been hit. Cairo votes on military support for Riyadh on 26 October.
The Russia–Ukraine war on energy and rail runs through the winter. No energy ceasefire is in force, and Moscow has rejected Kyiv’s 60-day pause.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese army move to armed confrontation. The state seized half a tonne of Hezbollah explosives this month. The army now patrols Beirut’s southern suburbs. Baghdad’s deal with the militias fails before June 2027. A US-designated militia leader is now deputy prime minister. Kataib Hezbollah says no timetable binds it.
A drone or sabotage incident escalates into a Russia–NATO clash.
In September drones crashed in Romania and Moldova, and NATO jets shot one down over Lithuania. Red Sea and Gulf cables are cut, or a Western essential service goes down for weeks.
Iran’s security chief named the Gulf’s cables and data centres as targets on 12 October. Red Sea repairs took months last time.
India and Pakistan return to war with Pakistani forces deployed in Saudi Arabia.
The diplomacy that ended the 2025 war now has its hands full in the Gulf.
China quarantines Taiwan while US forces are tied down in the Gulf. Taiwan holds about eleven days of gas. Qatar, a third of its supply, is still largely offline.
Almost every workaround is now a target, and the restraint on old threats is thinning: we flagged the return of Somali piracy on the war’s first day.
The axis has split into fronts on their own timetables. Most of this lands on Europe and the Gulf first.
Full report attached (or on request): 26 contingencies, the 2026 survey tested against the record, the axis mapped, and where prevention can still work
#Geopolitics #ConflictPrevention #Iran #Gulf #Europe #Energy
For the full report go to my LinkedIn
lnkd.in/p/efwVi4hv
Over the Horizon 2027 by Six Degrees Out - all rights reserved.
Annex:
Russia’s hybrid war on EuropeRussia’s hybrid campaign against Europe is under way, below the threshold of armed conflict. We judge it highly likely to intensify in 2027.
On our matrix it is a Tier I contingency in its own right, and the likeliest path to a Russia–NATO clash.
The record:
Sabotage and arson. ICCT and GLOBSEC count 151 Russian-linked sabotage incidents in Europe between February 2022 and February 2026. About 95% of the perpetrators were civilians with no formal tie to Russian intelligence. Poland leads with 31.
Drones.
IISS counts 144 suspected drone sightings over European sites since 2024. They closed airports in Germany, Spain and Denmark, and some were highly likely launched from shadow-fleet ships.
In August a drone carrying explosives hit a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig; Berlin blamed Moscow.
Telecoms and subsea.
On New Year’s Eve a ship out of St Petersburg dragged its anchor for tens of kilometres before a Helsinki–Tallinn cable was damaged. In September a ground station near Warsaw carrying traffic to Ukraine burned in a suspected arson.
Navigation.
GPS jamming from Kaliningrad is constant. Lithuania logged 302 pilot reports in the first ten weeks of 2026. Energy and water. Sweden attributed an attempted destructive cyberattack on a thermal power plant to hackers linked to Russian intelligence. Denmark blamed Russia for attacks on a water utility.
Influence.
France’s watchdog found little foreign hand behind the 17 October riots, but Russian state media amplified them. The 2027 French presidential election is the next target.
Recruitment.
An investigation documented some 20 million Telegram job ads in the first half of 2026 recruiting saboteurs across more than twenty countries.
Our key judgments:
Moscow will keep using disposable proxies to stay below the threshold for a collective NATO response.The supply chain to Ukraine is the main target set: Polish and German rail, airports and defence industry.The trigger to watch is the first incident that kills. That is where hybrid war becomes a Russia–NATO clash.
David Falt retweeted
⚡️️️️️️️Zelensky appeals to US lawmakers for answers as White House turns on Kyiv.
"We want to understand what is happening, why it's happening, and where all this is heading," Zelensky told a bipartisan group of U.S. senators and representatives.
kyivindependent.com/zelensky…
David Falt retweeted
Starlink has absolutely no role in the one military campaign Trump claims he wants Ukraine to end: hitting Russian oil refineries. It only works in Ukraine and it helps with air defense — homegrown air defense, to be specific, which was born of necessity because we aren’t providing enough missile interceptors. A Russian Shahed today killed a one-year baby in a park. The U.S. is actively making it easier for Russia to commit these atrocities by throttling satellite internet. All while Trump makes excuses for Putin.
🇺🇦 Zelenskyy delivers a blunt message to the United States:
“Just give us Starlink back. If you refuse, Ukraine will survive. We will continue defending ourselves with or without it.
But why would you restrict a country fighting for its survival? Why make it harder for us to defend our people?
I simply cannot understand the reasoning behind this decision. It is a mistake.”
Ukraine isn’t asking America to fight its war. It’s asking America not to stand in the way of its defense.
David Falt retweeted
Signal or noise?
Scoop: Secretary of Defense Hegseth made unannounced visit to Israel on Monday, met Netanyahu, per two sources with knowledge. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/19/pete-he…
David Falt retweeted
A horrific Russian strike in the Kharkiv region. A “shahed” struck people directly – in a park near an ordinary café. Pure atrocity. Six people were killed, including children. A little girl was killed in a stroller – her name was Angelina, she was just over a year old, born in August 2025… Her mother’s name was Inna. She died in the hospital… Another girl who was killed was 11 years old. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Another 14 people were injured, including six more children.
I am grateful to everyone who supports Ukraine under these circumstances and helps us shoot down “shaheds,” shoot down missiles, and stop Russian assaults. These are horrific photos, but behind them are shattered lives and the truth about this war. Lives must be protected. Ukraine needs air defense. You can't think about making money with Russia as long as it continues its asinine war. We ask that sanctions on Russia stay in place as long as the killings continue. We ask America to be strong, and we ask it to apply the Lindsey Graham law. We ask Europe to continue its support. We ask that everything possible be done to bring peace and guarantee security. Ukraine wants peace. It is Russia that has insisted on continuing the killing all this time. The world has enough strength to stop the war. That strength must finally be used – against the murderers.
David Falt retweeted
I met in Kyiv with a team from the American defense company Lockheed Martin, which helps us save lives. Its Patriot systems and F-16 aircraft play an important role in defending against Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered “shaheds.” And things are not easy with either right now. We discussed how we can expand and increase supplies. The company is currently ramping up production of ballistic missile interceptors. We count on the opportunity to purchase some of them to protect more lives. We are also trying to do everything possible to ensure that F-16 maintenance and repairs are carried out in Ukraine. Thank you for the meeting. It is important that Lockheed Martin has a presence in Ukraine. We are doing everything on our part to expand our partnership.
David Falt retweeted
🇺🇸 Trump's pause on retaliation didn't cool tensions. It handed Iran a green light.
Counter-terrorism analyst Malcolm Nance breaks down how Tehran read American restraint as an invitation to escalate, targeting commercial shipping with drones, anti-ship missiles, and what may be staged mine footage.
"They said the Americans aren't striking back, but we're seeing a lot of ship traffic down there. So let's just start hosing these ships."
The Strait of Hormuz isn't a standoff anymore. It's a laboratory.
@MalcolmNance
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has found a way to keep the Strait of Hormuz dangerous, even with the U.S. Navy protecting shipping.
I spoke with former U.S. intelligence officer Malcolm Nance about the renewed attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
And his explanation was fascinating.
According to Nance, the US military had developed a relatively effective shipping corridor along the southern side of the strait, using helicopters, patrol aircraft and naval air defenses to protect vessels moving toward the UAE.
For a while, it appeared to be working.
But Nance believes Iran was watching the traffic increase and waiting for Washington to become less willing to retaliate.
Now, drones and anti-ship missiles are reportedly hitting vessels again, threatening the shipping route that Gulf exporters depend on.
And that creates a serious problem for Trump.
The U.S. can spend enormous resources escorting tankers, intercepting missiles and maintaining patrols. Iran only needs enough successful attacks to make commercial shipping dangerous and expensive.
We also discussed the expanding war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are drawing more regional players into the conflict.
Egyptian military assistance is being discussed, while UAE-backed Yemeni forces are reportedly coordinating more closely with Saudi-backed factions.
The U.S. Navy may be able to get ships through Hormuz. But keeping the route commercially viable while Iran continues attacking it is an entirely different challenge.
And Nance's assessment suggests Washington hasn't solved that problem yet.
@MalcolmNance
David Falt retweeted
BIG | 🇺🇦🇺🇸‼️ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Donald Trump of pressuring Ukraine toward capitulation, revealing that Washington rejected Kyiv’s proposal to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries in exchange for Patriot interceptor missiles.
According to Zelensky, the Trump administration wants Ukraine to unilaterally stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure without offering anything in return.
“We offered to stop striking Russian oil refineries in exchange for Patriot missiles. But they only want us to stop the strikes unilaterally, offering nothing in return. And if we strike, they will disconnect us from something. If we agree, they will take away another right,” Zelensky said.
Speaking to Bloomberg, the Ukrainian president revealed that Ukraine currently purchases just 12 Patriot interceptor missiles from the United States each month, approximately one-quarter of the monthly quantity supplied under the Biden administration. He emphasized that Ukraine has already paid for the weapons, although some deliveries have been approved while others remain pending.
“I don’t want to believe that the Americans consider it appropriate to end the war faster at Ukraine’s expense, but that is exactly what it looks like,” Zelensky stated.
He also suggested that relations with Washington could improve after the U.S. midterm elections, arguing that Trump currently cannot compel Putin to end the war.
🔥 Zelensky’s accusations highlight a fundamental dispute over the conditions for ending Russia’s invasion. Kyiv argues that being pressured to abandon strikes on Russian infrastructure without receiving additional defensive capabilities would weaken its position. The reported reduction in Patriot missile deliveries adds another concern, particularly as Ukraine continues defending its cities and critical infrastructure against Russian aerial attacks.
See the latest updates with us: @NSTRIKE1231
BIG | 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺‼️ Donald Trump has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of not wanting to end the war, while defending his decision to avoid new measures against Russia and criticizing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
In a lengthy Truth Social statement, Trump argued that signing a new Russia-related measure could disrupt ongoing peace negotiations. He claimed significant diplomatic progress had been made and suggested that Moscow’s limited assistance to Iran was another reason to avoid increasing pressure on Russia.
Trump also blamed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries for disrupting global diesel markets and harming American farmers and businesses. He accused Zelensky of disregarding those economic consequences and claimed that Ukraine could have secured a better agreement two years earlier.
The American president further asserted that Ukraine had lost access to the sea, despite the country retaining its Black Sea coastline and the major port of Odesa.
“Zelensky does not want this war to end, and probably never did,” Trump wrote, according to the supplied statement.
🔥 Trump’s remarks reveal a fundamental disagreement over how to pressure Russia into ending the war. His argument prioritizes keeping Moscow at the negotiating table and protecting energy markets, while Ukraine considers strikes on Russian oil infrastructure a means of weakening Russia’s capacity to finance its invasion. His assertion that Ukraine has no access to the sea is factually incorrect, and his accusation about Zelensky’s intentions remains an unsubstantiated political claim.
See the latest updates with us: @NSTRIKE1231
David Falt retweeted
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has vowed to take 'any measure' to defend Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks. Parliament is set to hold an emergency session on Sunday. El-Sisi wants approval for military assistance if Riyadh requests it. He insists Egypt does not want war.
This paves the way for a walk-in-the-park victory for Front National and Marine, I can't say I don't want her, given the alternatives, but governance is no easy feat.
This is going to get a lot worse before it can get better.
David Falt retweeted
Ukraine can't destroy Gazprom's pipelines because doing so inconveniences German consumers.
Ukraine can't hit Russian refineries because that inconveniencs US consumer.
Russia, on the other hand, can destroy Ukraine's energy grid because it inconveniences no one.
Shameful.
David Falt retweeted
Based on the information currently available to us, we cannot confirm that Starshield’s full capabilities have been restored.
Four (4!) days after we submitted our inquiries, we have yet to receive a response from the Pentagon or SpaceX. We hope to receive confirmation that unlimited speeds have been restored and that Starshield is operating as it did previously, providing reliable communications essential to protecting our people amid intensified Russian aerial attacks.
David Falt retweeted
Major Ukrainian drone raid into Russia ongoing for another night, reportedly targeting Moscow and the Leningrad region.
Local Russian channels report a "massive" raid.
